Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We started by assuming each X was measured without error, that each observation was perfectly certain. This is not always so for real X.…

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…

Part I, II, III, IV, V. The objection which will occur to those, Lord help them, who have had some statistical training is that "increased" means a combination of "linear…

Part I, II, III, IV, V. Before us are the observations X1 to X156. Recall we are assuming that each of these X has been measured without any error. Given…

Somebody attributed to Max Planck, a constant1 source of wisdom, the saying that science advances funeral by funeral. This is a pithy condensation of his more famous quotation: A new…

(B) New data It might surprise you, but in classical (both frequentist and Bayesian) practice, if we expect to see new X, the procedure is almost always no different than…

(A) No new data (cont.) If we want to know how that data arose, and we are not satisfied by X itself, we need to propose a model---a fully causal…