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William M. Briggs

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Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill
Posted inStatistics

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer
Posted inStatistics

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

A curious question made its way around the interwebs recently, and not for the first time. By itself, it does not appear to be that interesting. And it isn't, really.…
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UFO Reports About To Blast Off!
Posted inStatistics

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Regular readers know I have been predicting our return to the 1970s (here and here). Not directly, you understand. There will be no bell-bottom pants or leisure suits, but only…
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Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples
Posted inStatistics

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
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Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay
Posted inStatistics

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

A lot of conversations about the differences between the races go like this one about sex. "Briggs, somebody told me you said men are taller than women." I said it.…
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What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?
Posted inStatistics

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Might I beg you, if you find it useful, to show this article to those who are growing concerned or agitated about this story? Don't miss the ending. We hear…
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Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory
Posted inStatistics

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

Reminder: The Thursday Class is only for those interested in studying uncertainty. I don’t expect all want to read these posts. So please don’t feel like you must. Yet, I…
Read More
How A Miracle Turns Mundane
Posted inStatistics

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

There is a great and terrible danger in being a strict immovable literalist and in insisting every word in the Bible as written is the inerrant absolute word of God.…
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  1. JRob on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 14, 2026

    Wow, Wow, Wow! Someone else used the exaggeration method! Years ago I tried to figure out the Monte Hall problem…

  2. McChuck on The Shocking Conclusion of the HR Trilemma!May 13, 2026

    There is a simpler, less math-intensive solution that gives the same answer. Knowing that it doesn't take two men to…

  3. R W Pearson on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    This is easy, go in the door he came out. Worse case only one young scold to give you a…

  4. Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026

    I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…

  5. Johnno on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 12, 2026

    We should make it a law that whenever a criminal is sentened to death, that the only method to delay…

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