From time to time people come across what seems like paradoxes which invalidate probability (as logic). These are excellent devices to sharpen thought, but they all suffer from one of…

Bayes's theorem, while nice, is not necessary. What counts is the relation between sets of propositions; between our assumptions and what we want to know. Bayes can even slow you…

Independence implies causality; irrelevance is consistent with logic. A reminder that there is no such thing as unconditional probability. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…

I flatter myself that this is the best general thing I have written to explain why you must never, not ever, use a p-value, hypothesis test, "significance", Bayes value, or…

First basics of models and the Deadly Sin. Also the superiority of relevance over the misleading idea of independence. WARNING for those reading the email version! The text below might…