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Posted inStatistics

The Hierarchy Of Models: From Causal (Best) To Statistical (Worst)

There is a hierarchy of models in the sense they offer insight into the thing modeled. The order of importance is: causal, deterministic, probabilistic, statistical. Most models use mixtures of…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Preface to Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

The book is now at a 15% discount at Amazon (I apologize for the price). Buy today. And buy again tomorrow! This will be linked permanently on the book's official…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Book Update — Uncertainty & Breaking The Law Of Averages

I'll have the page proofs for Uncertainty mid week and I've until 10 June to turn them back in. (I begin teaching on the 13th.) This puts publication in early…
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Posted inStatistics

Third Way Of Probability & Statistics Gets Comments

I just discovered a written comment, actually two, on my sketch-paper "The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill". Now when I…
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Posted inStatistics

American Statistical Association Statement On Statistical Significance & P-values, With My Comments

Editorial Note: I had this originally scheduled to go Monday, but due to Stream's Creatorgate piece showing up yesterday, I delayed this by a day. I think I only have…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Ritual Sacrifice Promoted Evolution Of Stratified Societies: A Statistical Fallacy

His Majesty Every human society except one is stratified. The exception is the empire of William I, a small sand island that comes and goes by a remote and isolated…
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Posted inStatistics

Theories Don’t Have Probabilities: Or, Is The Multiverse Real?

There was in Munich last week a three-day workshop on the soul of science. According to Quanta Magazine, the conference was driven by George Ellis and Joe Silk who wrote…
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Posted inStatistics

It’s World Statistics Day! Death To P-Values, Hypothesis Tests, And False Ascriptions Of Cause! #StatsDay15

Who said the UN doesn't do anything useful? Courtesy of that august body, it's World Statistics Day! Official statistics help decision makers develop informed policies that impact millions of people.…
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