William M. Briggs

Richard Muller’s Political Move—BEST is Best? Sophisticated Statistics!

Our Berkeley Earth approach used sophisticated statistical methods developed largely by our lead scientist, Robert Rohde, which allowed us to determine earth land temperature much further back in time. Ah,…

Statistics

Doctors For Disaster Preparedness Talk

Here's the PDF of my talk DDP 30th Annual Meeting. "Statistical Follies and Epidemiology." They picked the title. Have fun!

Fun

Google’s Eric Schmidt & Chicago’s Rahm Emanuel Blaze Path Of Ugliness

This is a picture of Google's Eric Schmidt & Chicago's Rahm "Crisis" Emanuel from today's Wall Street Journal story Google Move Buoys Chicago Tech Hub. Chicago! The city of the…

Culture

The Chicago Way With Chik-Fil-A

There is a sense in which we all argue that is statistical. For instance, if we say of a group that it sports an "arrogant attitude" we do not mean…

Philosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…

Philosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025
So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…
Johnno on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 27, 2025
Here's another example of reified models in action... and what a consequence! The Key Nuclear Allegation That Started the War…
NLR on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
One can make an argument that the models of physics exist in the minds of physicists and the fact that…
Shack Toms on What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?June 26, 2025
What is the probability that today is July 4, 2025? Somehow, I think this is a matter of my perspective.…
The True Nolan on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
"Those equations are her model of the world, and to her the model is the world. That is the Deadly…

William M. Briggs

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

Richard Muller’s Political Move—BEST is Best? Sophisticated Statistics!

Doctors For Disaster Preparedness Talk

Google’s Eric Schmidt & Chicago’s Rahm Emanuel Blaze Path Of Ugliness

The Chicago Way With Chik-Fil-A

True Value Of A Parameter

What Probably Isnâ€™t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification