William M. Briggs

Adjusted Mass Public Shootings per Decade Uncorrelated With Gun Ownership

Here are the Mass Public Shootings per Decade from the 1900s through 2012, adjusted for population. The rate is mass-shootings per million per decade, using the average population of the…

Philosophy Statistics

Precaution: Part IV—Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

Read Part III. Science plays an interesting role in precautionary culture. Overall, science is looked at in our culture as a discerning field of advice in terms of numerous aspects…

Culture

What Happened to the News?—Guest Post by the Blonde Bombshell

My father was a wire editor of our local paper. Even though the paper was "local" and covered a few counties, there was much more news than who married, who…

Statistics

Precaution: Part III—Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

Read Part II. Precaution is essential, so the tale goes, to create policies and laws that focus on and tackle uncertainty that might be the foreboding of particular risks. The…

Fun Philosophy

Is There Free Will? A Conversation With Dr. Sam Hurtus

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1MbL6wbg1Y&w=560&h=315] I got the idea for this from regular reader Jim Fedako, who points us to a cute video showing the screwiness of p-values. Turns out the video was…

Statistics

Anthropogenic Forcing Signals Not Significant? New Polynomial Cointegration Test Paper

I have been asked by a number of people to comment on a new paper that purportedly shows that "statistical tests for global warming fails to find statistically significantly anthropogenic…

Culture

Review and Comments on Anna Karenina—Guest Post by the Blonde Bombshell

The movie itself is quite enjoyable. The opening is a little jarring, as the movie mixes "stage" settings with "movie" settings. The characters will march across the stage or climb…

Philosophy Statistics

Precaution: Part II—Guest Post by J.C. Hanekamp

For all the flurry surrounding precaution---being portrayed as a decisional/procedural instrument to protect human and environmental health from the (potential) dangers of human activities---the history shows that we are dealing…

R W Pearson on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
This is easy, go in the door he came out. Worse case only one young scold to give you a…
Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
I asked an AI, and it had the same answer as me but with silly Bayes equations. Then out of…
Johnno on Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death PenaltyMay 12, 2026
We should make it a law that whenever a criminal is sentened to death, that the only method to delay…
Mocheirge on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
Definitely pick the door that the Boomer just left. There are three Boomers, so the probability that the one you…
Cary D Cotterman on The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?May 12, 2026
I don't know or have the patience for the math, or whatever it takes, to do this right. I figure…

William M. Briggs

The HR Trilemma: Which Door Decides Your Fate?

Capital Punishment Deters Crime More Than The Death Penalty

How Experts Use “Calamities” to Find Official Victims & Gain Power

Richard Dawkins, The Big Muscles Fallacy & AI Pachinko

Class 88: The Most Neglected Concept: Skill

The Red-Blue Button Dilemma & Its Surprising Answer

UFO Reports About To Blast Off!

Class 87: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Examples

Noticing Differences Between Races Does Not Pay

What Are The Chances Of All These Scientists Dying, Killed, Or Going Missing?

Class 86: Calibration & Conformal Prediction: Theory

How A Miracle Turns Mundane

Contest Winner Announced!

Trump’s Last Stand: Mea Culpa, Redux — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Class 85: Proper Scores of Model Goodness

Proof!

Justice Ketanji Roars

Iran Has Caught Covid: A Reason For The War

Class 84: Most Important Measure of Model Goodness

There Is No Solution To Crashing Fertility: Good Times Made Soft Men

Did The Pope Really Say Health Is A “Right”?