Statistics – Page 54 – William M. Briggs

The Less You Know About Climate, The More You Cry About Climate

Some things, the saying goes, are too good to check. Take the peer-reviewed paper "Environmental knowledge is inversely associated with climate change anxiety" by Hannes Zacher and Cort W. Rudolph…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is No Problem Of Old Evidence In Bayesian Probability

Rationalists, like those at Less Wrong (think Eliezer Yudkowsky and Scott Alexander), are prone to fetishsize Bayes theorem, seeing it as the key to all thought. It isn't. Bayes is…

Statistics

How An AI-Machine Learning-Physics-Sociological-Whatever Model Can Be Good For One Man & Bad For Another

A model---which I do not distinguish between a theory---can be useful to one man and useless to the next. "But Briggs, people don't treat theories the same as models." Right:…

Statistics

Why Science Is Broken: Hillsdale Speech Video & Transcript Now Online

Video Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFDjRS_928 And here is Greg's talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6VMcIp21mA Transcript I followed this closely during the speech, but did not adhere to it perfectly. I don't have a…

Statistics

Nothing Has A Probability: Roulette Wheel Pays Off

There are two essential, crucial things to take from the article "The Gambler Who Beat Roulette", and I beg that you will remember both: 1. You are meant to lose…

Statistics

Is AI Really Able To Probe Your Brain & See The Image You’re Thinking Of?

There's a rumor going around that computers can now read your thoughts. That "AI" can pick off images you're thinking about. Here's one of many similar breathless headlines: "The AI…

Book review Philosophy Statistics

The Multiverse Hides The Problem It Was Supposed To Solve, And Calls It Solved

Let's end the review of Sabine Hossenfelder's book. We did some already: Emergence, Entropy, and Many Worlds. With this post, we'll have covered the most interesting topics. Old Hoss, and…

Statistics

Broken Science Talks Now Online

Our first ever Broken Science event was in February, and the talks are now online. Watch them all here. These are all up late because the sound was busted, and,…

Tars Tarkas on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 30, 2025
"The Drake and Fermi are not flawed logically: one can put probabilities to any question." The Drake equation always struck…
NLR on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 30, 2025
There may or may not be extraterrestrial life, but if we ever see some, I suspect there will be surprises.…
Douglas Skinner on Why The Drake Equation FailsDecember 30, 2025
The other bookend paired with the Drake/Fermi speculations is Evolution. In this January's edition of First Things Magazine comes a…
C-Marie on Canada Invents New Euphemism For Doctor KillingsDecember 29, 2025
God loves you. Let Him take you home when it is time. In the mean time, give to our Father…
C. P. Benischek on Merry Christmas!December 29, 2025
God Rest Ye Merry, Gentle Briggs! Don’t dismay, Christmas isn’t yet over, but rather just warming up. A Child is…