William M. Briggs

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

The Edge every year asks top science celebrities a penetrating, yet fun, always fun, question. Last year's was "What scientific concept would improve everybody's cognitive toolkit?" One of the correspondent…

Philosophy Statistics

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

Regular readers will know that I have been searching for (continuous) employment as a teacher. Most colleges and universities ask applicants to supply "a statement of teaching philosophy", while a…

Philosophy Statistics

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Background A paradox is a mistake in thinking; an artificial, human creation which usually arises because a conclusion which follows from a set of beloved premises is itself unloved. Twitter…

Culture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…

Fun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Regular readers will recognize DAV as a regular contributer whose humorous voice of reason has kept many conversations on target. Today he presents ideas to spur a discussion of causality,…

Statistics

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Off in service today, so only a brief word. Debate results: Romney had an easy base hit to center field, Gingrich doubled but with no men on base, Santorum hit…

Philosophy

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

President Obama has told us, and we can scarcely disbelieve him, that he is a Christian. At a recent prayer breakfast, Mr Obama said: [The prayer breakfast is] a chance…

JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025
How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.
Jonas P. Kay on Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part IJune 28, 2025
I answer all by saying you cannot get something from nothing. There is beauty in its simplicity and it is…
Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025
So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…
Johnno on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 27, 2025
Here's another example of reified models in action... and what a consequence! The Key Nuclear Allegation That Started the War…
NLR on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
One can make an argument that the models of physics exist in the minds of physicists and the fact that…

William M. Briggs

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Dawkins On The Double-Blind Experiment

Statement Of Teaching Philosophy

The Jeffreys-Lindley Paradox Isn’t

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

What Is Cause? — Guest Post by DAV

Last Night’s Republican Debate

Santorum And The ‘S’ Word

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification