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William M. Briggs

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Latest Articles
How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?
June 30, 2025
Class 56: The Best Model!
June 26, 2025
Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification
June 25, 2025
England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women
June 24, 2025
On The Probability Of God
June 23, 2025
Class 55: Models Vs Reality
June 19, 2025
AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output
June 18, 2025
The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition
June 17, 2025
The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example
June 16, 2025
Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters
June 12, 2025
Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores
June 11, 2025
AI & The Dilemma Of Technology
June 10, 2025
What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?
June 9, 2025
Class 53: Laplace Was Right!
June 5, 2025
Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out
June 4, 2025
Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best
June 3, 2025
Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting
June 2, 2025
Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters
May 29, 2025
IQ Is Not Intelligence
May 28, 2025
What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?
May 27, 2025
Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula
May 22, 2025
Posted inStatistics

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Posted by By Briggs June 30, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inStatistics

Class 56: The Best Model!

Posted by By Briggs June 26, 2025
Continue Reading
Posted inFun

Mathematical Magic Trick: 8 4-Digit Numbers Summing To 35712?

From reader Noble Abraham comes this question: Is it possible to create a pool of distinct four digit numbers, so that the sum of 8 randomly chosen numbers from this…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

The Obama-HHS Diktat On Contraceptive Coverage: Non-Religious Arguments Against It

The government has decided that citizens who agree to work for other citizens must be given "free" coverage for contraceptives and drugs for auto-abortions. The "free" is a misnomer. Actually,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part V

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We started by assuming each X was measured without error, that each observation was perfectly certain. This is not always so for real X.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part IV

Part I, II, III, IV, V. We have before us X1 to X156. We started by assuming that something, called T, caused these data to take the values it did.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part III

Part I, II, III, IV, V. The objection which will occur to those, Lord help them, who have had some statistical training is that "increased" means a combination of "linear…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part II

Part I, II, III, IV, V. Before us are the observations X1 to X156. Recall we are assuming that each of these X has been measured without any error. Given…
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Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I
Posted inStatistics

Let’s Try This Time Series Thing Again: Part I

This series originally began 5 February 2012. Part I, II, III, IV, V. We've gone on and on about how to think about time series, but we are having trouble…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

On Corrections In Science

Somebody attributed to Max Planck, a constant1 source of wisdom, the saying that science advances funeral by funeral. This is a pithy condensation of his more famous quotation: A new…
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  1. Briggs on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    Spetzer, All good points. I go into many of them later in the chapter.

  2. spetzer86 on How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?June 30, 2025

    If the receiver and sender independently wrote down the guess / card with no verbal communication, it might be better.…

  3. JH on Class 56: The Best Model!June 29, 2025

    How can you make predictions in the big data era without using a model? Trust your gut.

  4. Jonas P. Kay on Which God Are You Rejecting? David Bentley Hart’s The Experience of God, Part IJune 28, 2025

    I answer all by saying you cannot get something from nothing. There is beauty in its simplicity and it is…

  5. Johnno on England’s Mandatory Suicide & WomenJune 27, 2025

    So what's the betting pool on the odds about when and in which country will be the first to perform…

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