William M. Briggs

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Fun

Muppets Offer Human Sacrifice!

Finally! I offer tangible proof that listening to the Beatles can drive one to evil. Prolonged, repetitious exposure to their music causes madness leading, in rare cases, to human sacrifice!…

Culture Philosophy

Studies Show Mike McQueary Did What You Would Have Done

A lot of wrist-twisting and hand-wringing over Mike McQueary's actions after he came across Penn State Coach Jerry Sandusky raping a 10-year-old boy in the showers. McQueary, who Mark Steyn…

Culture

A Black Day Indeed: To Be Thankful For Shopping (Updated)

It is something of a tradition at this blog to commemorate the annual plunge into the depths of mindless materialism and conspicuous consumerism which we call "Black Friday." It is…

Fun

Happy Thanksgiving

We are all thankful for many things, but let's pause to be especially grateful for Bing Crosby, who can make even silly lyrics sound good: For wonderfully bad jokes like…

Culture Statistics

Something To Be Thankful For: Climategate 2.0

Thanks to Mr, or Mrs, Anonymous, that generous individual who has graced us with a new batch of emails from the world's top climate scientists. These new missives are guaranteed…

Statistics

Romney’s Obama Number

Physicists calculate what is called the "Einstein Number."1 It is a measure of closeness. If you published a paper with that most celebrated scientist, you have an Einstein Number of…

C-Marie on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
Well, not sure that I understand all of this, but is the brotherhood of priests referring to Roman Catholic priests…
Cary Cotterman on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
John Galt
Brian (bulaoren) on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
Has anyone else interacted with our medical system lately? I wonder what changed...
Hun on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
The only way to do this reliably is around a religion or occult faith. No religion in its current form…
Hagfish Bagpipe on Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!July 2, 2025
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William M. Briggs

Let’s Play A Game Of Let’s Suppose!

Test Your IQ With These Puzzles! (Not So Easy!)

How Can You Tell If You Have ESP?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence