William M. Briggs

Global Average Temperature: What It Isn’t

Update See also: Global Average Temperature: An Exceedingly Brief Introduction To Bayesian Predictive Inference Word is going round that Richard Muller is leading a group of physicists, statisticians, and climatologists…

Culture Statistics

TSA Expands Jurisdiction To Sidewalks: Where Is The Left?

"Sir? Please step over here. You need to be x-rayed." "What? Get outta my way. Who are you?" said the man. "Sir, please step over to the machine. You have…

Culture

Reaction To The Latest Attack In Frankfurt

The spin from the military and from the Obama government regarding Army Major Nidal Hasan's bloody Allahu Akbarization of Fort Hood said he was a troubled man, influenced only by…

Culture

Low Flow Toilets Equals No-Flow Sewers In San Francisco

If you're an environmentalist, particularly a San Francisco version of that creature (one of the most virulent of the breed), it must have come as quite a shock for you…

Statistics

Stock Tomato Seeds! Global Warming Is Coming!

It must be a joke. The punchline is surely coming. Ha, ha! Hoarding tomato seeds! Bars on his basement windows! Hilarious! This guy really nails nuttiness. He'll shame a few…

Fun Statistics

And The Winner Goes To…Oscar Statistics Wrap Up

Our model was right: The King's Speech won. In this weekend's Oscar Statistics post, we modeled the chances of each nominated movie. We guessed that the movie most likely to…

Fun Statistics

Oscar Statistics: Money, Men, and Maturity; Plus Our Predictions

This article was written with the assistance of the very employable John Briggs, who did all the grunt work. Also see And The Winner Goes To...Oscar Statistics Wrap Up. Which…

Culture

We Need To Slaughter Owls To Save Them, Environmentalists

Here is a quiz to accurately determine how devoted an environmentalist you are. What is the best way to "save" Oregonian owls? (a) Ignore them and let them take care…

NLR on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
One can make an argument that the models of physics exist in the minds of physicists and the fact that…
Shack Toms on What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?June 26, 2025
What is the probability that today is July 4, 2025? Somehow, I think this is a matter of my perspective.…
The True Nolan on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
"Those equations are her model of the world, and to her the model is the world. That is the Deadly…
Uncle Mike on Class 56: The Best Model!June 26, 2025
"The best model is no model! Display your data instead." Yes. Absolutely. However, easier said than done. There are lots…
fergus on Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of ReificationJune 26, 2025
So much confusion with so many strawmen thrown in that video and this discussion. First, it is a nice thing…

William M. Briggs

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

England’s Mandatory Suicide & Women

On The Probability Of God

Class 55: Models Vs Reality

AI & Chess Both Produce Pre-Coded Output

The Hubris Of Experts: NIH Edition

The Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories. Part 1: Black Eye Club Example

Class 54: Exchangeability & Parameters

Over-Certainty Of Polygenic Scores

AI & The Dilemma Of Technology

What Are The Chances Thomas Jefferson & John Adams Died On The Fourth of July, 1826?

Class 53: Laplace Was Right!

Even The Woke Say Science Is Petering Out

Expert Nathan Confas: Experts Know Best

Science Claims 7% Of Adults Saw A Mass Shooting

Class 52: The Origin Of Parameters

IQ Is Not Intelligence

What Are The Chances…George Wendt Dies On Same Day Cheers Ended 32 Years Before?

Class 51: Bayes Is Only A Formula

Blacks Have Black Fatigue: Who Is At Fault?

Class 56: The Best Model!

Sabine Hossenfelder’s Free Will Folly & The Deadly Sin Of Reification

Global Average Temperature: What It Isn’t

TSA Expands Jurisdiction To Sidewalks: Where Is The Left?

Reaction To The Latest Attack In Frankfurt

Low Flow Toilets Equals No-Flow Sewers In San Francisco

Stock Tomato Seeds! Global Warming Is Coming!

And The Winner Goes To…Oscar Statistics Wrap Up

Oscar Statistics: Money, Men, and Maturity; Plus Our Predictions

We Need To Slaughter Owls To Save Them, Environmentalists

There Is No Culture Without Inequality: Stove 1

Impose Your Beliefs Before They Impose Theirs

Telekinesis: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification

The Physics Of Blessings: Ideas In Our Reenchantment & Rectification