# Search results for ‘"time series"’

## What Is Cause Like?

Time for the two-week teaching sojourn. In order to grasp cause, we need a brief, a very brief, introduction to the Aristotelian metaphysics of change. These are ancient views, largely abandoned in […]

Don’t Don’t smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing to do. […]

## Don’t Use Statistics Unless You Have To

We’re finally getting it, as evinced by the responses to the article “Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series.” Let’s return to the Screaming Willies. Quoting myself […]

## Can We Predict The Unpredictable?

The most intriguing thing about the new peer-reviewed paper of the same name as today’s post in Nature: Scientific Reports by Abbas Golestani and Robin Gras is that it is longer than […]

## Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example

Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1 = 61? […]

## Time Series Aren’t Easy: Tornado Deaths Example

Time series are the most abused statistics in the physical sciences. (It’s an endless, raucous, peer-reviewed contest for the worst in the “soft sciences.”) The Mann problem (is that a typo?) is […]

## Paper Claims Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change And Violence. Nonsense.

When does more crime happen, in winter or summer? Why? Too easy. How about this one: according to the FBI, what was the violent crime rate over time? No need to guess. […]

## Sampling Variability Is A Screwy, Misleading Concept

@freakonometrics @DiegoKuonen @mattstat Pure data analysis cannot kill inference. Sampling variability cannot be hidden!!! — Paolo Giudici (@stateconomist) March 6, 2015 Because of travel and jet lag, exacerbated by “springing forward”, we […]