Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics
Voting (And Wisdom Of The Crowds)
First read Wisdom of the Crowds (and Voting). There are in this great land of ours some 315 million souls. Citizens, I mean. Another 12 millions (or so) are, as…
Posted inStatistics
Daily Links & Comments
@1 Characteristics of Near-Death Experiences Memories as Compared to Real and Imagined Events Memories Link @2 Dogs are not people too. Even though this guy says Science says they are.…
Posted inStatistics
Politico’s Biased Reporting Of Its Own Poll
Today's post is over at Legal Insurrection. The headline, helpfully supplied by William Jacobson, is "Politico poll showing 'plurality support' for gay marriage also shows majority opposition." Headline writing is…
Posted inStatistics
The Final Polls & Predictions: What’s The Difference Between Polls And Models?
There are two ways to forecast the election: polls and models. Polls are easy: go out and ask who will vote for whom, tally the results, and print 'em. As…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That
Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…
Posted inStatistics
Damn Straight News: Manly Men More Likely To Be Conservative
As will come as absolutely no surprise to regular readers, but will be a traumatic revelation to the public at large, it has finally been acknowledged in the peer-reviewed literature…
Posted inStatistics
What’s The Official Name For Governance By Thuggery?
To summarize what we know, but only in brief and leaving out many smaller scandals: The White House lied about the cause of Benghazi. They knowingly, willingly, and falsely claimed…
Posted inStatistics
Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?
An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
