Most forget their parameterized models are ad hoc, and so fret about how to put uncertainty on the parameters. Hence the cheerful reception of De Finetti's representation theory. WARNING for…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/sWKPQTAU?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Video Links: YouTube Twitter Rumble Bitchute (often a day or so behind, for whatever reason) The Infamous Coin Flipping Machine! Link to…

In my forced isolation, which was in many ways a gift, I took to thinking of my failures to convince people not to use or trust standard statistical evidence. Here…

Chant this until it becomes part of your soul: There is no such thing as unconditional probability. Once you have that, endless "problems" people have "discovered" about probability vanish. Today…

David Hume, as you know, wrote on miracles. He didn't like them. Which is to say, he didn't believe them. But then Hume didn't believe we could know any cause.…

Jaynes's book (first part): https://bayes.wustl.edu/etj/prob/book.pdf Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science Link to all Classes. Jaynes's book (first part): Video https://videopress.com/v/2hhRPJcJ?resizeToParent=true&cover=true&preloadContent=metadata&useAverageColor=true Links: YouTube Twitter…

I apologize for not getting right to the point. I can't. Everybody's premises are wrong, and it requires work to set them right. I think the young people enjoy it…