It’s easy to sound more certain than the evidence warrants, especially when using classical parameter-based statistical methods. I’ll show you how. I’ll give you the procedure first, then work through an example […]
Got this terrific email with interesting questions from Anon. The obvious perspicacity of its young author caused my heart to soar like a hawk, and to have renewed hope of Renewal. Which, […]
I’ve used this gimmick many times, so regular readers, please, shhh. I’m thinking of a number between 1 and 4. What is it? To you the number is random, because you don’t […]
Here it is! The one, the only, the peer-reviewed (and therefore true) “Reality-Based Probability & Statistics: Solving the Evidential Crisis” (the link is to the pdf, which is 11 MB; there are […]
Couple of folks (Mike W, Dan Hughes) asked me to comment on the article “The concept of probability is not as simple as you think” by Nevin Climenhaga. Three popular theories analyse […]
Part The First: Observations How good is the Pfizer vex in practice? Ask them—or any Expert or ruler—and they will say…well, let’s not ask them what they would say. It would only […]
A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was always, until […]
Scott Alexander, late of Slate Star Codex, and New York Times doxee, is the subject of Curtis Yarvin nee Moldbug’s latest. Rather, Alexander’s (and Moldbug’s? see postscript) Bayesian rationality is. The rationality […]
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