#### Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part II

Read Part I. What is the probability that "The Detroit Tigers win today's game" (which has not yet been played)? The truth of the proposition (in quotes) is not known…

#### Abortion Safety: Doctors V. Nurses & Physician Assistants & Midwives—Part II

Update 4 Too late. 10 October 2013. Update 4 Moved this to top because the bill allowing non-doctors to perform abortions is on Gov. Brown's desk. He'll likely sign, but…

#### Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part III

Following Part II, here are some examples to show the differences between objectivist, subjectivist, and frequentist probabilities derived from fixed premises and set conclusions. Example 1 Not all probability is…

#### Bayesian Statistics Ruled Illegal?

Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled "IPCC statistics ruled illegal" in which he said, "Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments…

#### How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That

Unleash the polls! No, I don't mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens…

#### Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…

#### British Judge Rules Against Bayes’s Theorem

A British judge has thrown a use of Bayes's rule out of his court. Not only that, his honor (Lordship?) ruled "against using similar statistical analysis in the courts in…

#### Best Statistics Question Ever

Several readers have sent this one in1. One Raymond Johnson (or was it Ryan Grover?) said he found the following picture on this blackboard (I pulled my copy from Flowing…