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William M. Briggs

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Posted inPhilosophy

Climategate Peer Review: Science red in tooth and claw

See also see this story on proxies I am a scientist and I have lived around fellow scientists for many years and I know their feeding habits well. I therefore…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Models, theories, consistency, and truth

Ready? Put on your best straight face, recall that global temperatures have not increased for a decade, and that it's actually been getting cooler, then repeat with Brenda Ekwurzel, of…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

What appeal to authority means and what it doesn’t

This article is meant to be the first is a small series of demonstrations of how not and how to argue for or against climate activism. The level of argumentation…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Theory confirmation and disconfirmation

Time for an incomplete mini-lesson on theory confirmation and disconfirmation. Suppose you have a theory, or model, about how some thing works. That thing might be global warming, stock market…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Just what are falling temperatures evidence of?

If increasing temperatures are consistent with or are evidence of global warming, what theory is consistent with or evidence of falling temperatures? Global warming, too? We have to ask this…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Michael Crichton and SETI

Michael Crichton, as you will have heard by now, is dead. Unfortunately. The Wall Street Journal today reprinted an excerpt of a speech Crichton gave called "Aliens Cause Global Warming."…
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Posted inFun Philosophy

Roger Kimball’s Challenge

The famous writer Roger Kimball has issued a challenge: Name the silliest argument to be offered by a serious academic in the last 25 years and to be taken up…
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Posted inPhilosophy

How to Cheat: Stats 101 Chapter 14

Here is the link. I've decided to jump ahead a few chapters. Chapters 10 - 13 are very important and cover material that comprises 90% of all the actual statistics…
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  1. Johnno on Little Nate’s Plan To Save The WorldNovember 9, 2025

    Facts and logic are very diverse things. As diverse as peoples, with diverse facts and diverse ways of logicking. Liberal…

  2. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 9, 2025

    Thank you for your answer, Professor. So the prediction interval is useful for predicting the number of failures among the…

  3. Briggs on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    Darin, There is no interval around a probability (with esoteric exceptions not of interest to us). All your evidence is…

  4. Darin Johnson on Class 70: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Right WayNovember 8, 2025

    I'm struggling to extrapolate this to the case when the thing I'm estimating is a probability. Let's say I observe…

  5. hudbwu on Changes Are Coming: Our Return to 1970sNovember 7, 2025

    I didn't come here for ~two months. Then I come back and ... *shit's gotten weird, son.* o.O At least…

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