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New Paper Claiming Biological Sex A Fiction Has Normie Academics Pretending To Be Shocked
Posted inCulture Statistics

New Paper Claiming Biological Sex A Fiction Has Normie Academics Pretending To Be Shocked

A new peer-reviewed paper is making normie, which is to say not fully woke, academics to say "Yikes!". The existence of this paper, as you'll see, adds another shovelful of…
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Over-Certainties In Global Estimates of Vaccine Efficacy
Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainties In Global Estimates of Vaccine Efficacy

How can you tell if a vaccine for a bug is effective? It's not so easy; indeed, it can be excruciatingly difficult. At the individual person level you'd need to…
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Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air
Posted inStatistics

Experts: Everybody In Europe Died From Breathing Toxic Air

A toxin, as the redoubtable reader undoubtedly knows, is a poison. And a poison, says Mr Webster, is that which causes "morbid, noxious, or deadly effects". People who ingest or…
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All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False
Posted inStatistics

All—As In All—Of The “Climate Change Made This Event More Likely” Claims Are False

Here's a typical recent propaganda headline: "Climate change made Libya flooding 50 times more likely: Report." This is not so. Here's another recent one from PBS: "Climate change made global…
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Proof That Scientists Are Model Blind Discovered In Claim One Billion Will Die From “Climate Change”
Posted inStatistics

Proof That Scientists Are Model Blind Discovered In Claim One Billion Will Die From “Climate Change”

I stupidly sent out two posts today. Those who received the second won't get it again tomorrow. Apologies. Headline: "Scientists Warn 1 Billion People on Track to Die From Climate…
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Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance
Posted inStatistics

Scientists Use The Double-Dog Epidemiologist Fallacy To Claim Breathing Induces Antibiotic Resistance

Thanks to AS! I don't have your email, so I hope you see this. The epidemiologist fallacy occurs when a scientist announces, directly or implicitly, that X Causes Y, but…
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Posted inStatistics

How Smoothing Time Series Generates Massive Over-Certainty

Day four of the week of classical posts on global warming, now "climate change", a subject which I had hoped had faded into obscurity, but, alas, has not. Your author…
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Posted inStatistics

Over-Certainty Is One Of The Main Causes Of Bad Science: Brain Volume & IQ Example

Announcement Next week I am on vacation as I prepare for the Cultural Event of the year. There will be no new posts: there may be classic reposts. Don't miss…
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  1. Nym Coy on On Not ReadingMarch 13, 2026

    Might I interest you in a book? It is called Mumbai Singularity, and it is a mythic cyberpunk detective thriller…

  2. Uncle Mike on Class 82: Be More Uncertain (About Models)March 12, 2026

    The probability of significant "climate change" in equatorial Africa is very small because most climate change occurs at the poles.…

  3. Idonotreadcomments on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026

    First of all, you only need to visit a big chain bookstore to know that the fiction market is driven…

  4. C-Marie on On Not ReadingMarch 12, 2026

    Well, I do knpw that Malchi Martin and David McCullough were great authors.... The Final Conclave and John Adams, respectively.…

  5. NLR on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    People have a variety of different reading habits. So the best thing to accommodate that is to preserve a variety…

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