Andrew Montford, who runs Bishop Hill blog, had a post titled “IPCC statistics ruled illegal” in which he said, “Bayesian statistics, the approach favoured by the IPCC in its assessments of the […]
Subjective Versus Objective Bayes (Versus Frequentism): Part III
Following Part II, here are some examples to show the differences between objectivist, subjectivist, and frequentist probabilities derived from fixed premises and set conclusions. Example 1 Not all probability is objectively strictly […]
How Presidential Polls Work: D+7 or R-3 And All That
Unleash the polls! No, I don’t mean the men who bravely served under Grand Duke of Lithuania Władysław II Jagiełło (free bad joke of the day!), but those election omens which nowadays […]
Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?
Update See the comments, but thanks to readers’ arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I’ve reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in most cases—except […]
Best Statistics Question Ever
Several readers have sent this one in1. One Raymond Johnson (or was it Ryan Grover?) said he found the following picture on this blackboard (I pulled my copy from Flowing Data): Try […]
Statistics Of Loeb’s “Observed Changes In Top-Of-The-Atmosphere Radiation And Upper-Ocean Heating Consistent Within Uncertainty”
The paper is “Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty” by Norman Loeb and others in the journal Nature Geoscience. I’m pressed for time, so for background on […]
Bioengineering Humans To Combat Climate Change
Aren’t bioethicists a fun bunch? When last we met this speculative crew, they were wondering whether we should “let baby live“, and they were developing a pill to eliminate racism. And now […]
Autism Caused By Highways?
Epidemiology is nothing if not a productive field. All that is needed for success is a database (larger the better), a disease (any will do), and some minor facility with statistical software. […]
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