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William M. Briggs

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Posted inFun Statistics

Women Spot Snakes Faster Before Their Periods

An Irish non-nun spots a snake. It is nearly St Patrick's day and so time to revisit the legend of how that holy man drove the snakes from Ireland. Little…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Oscar Predictions: Money, Men, & Maturity Make The Difference

Last year, my number two son1 and I created a model to predict the Oscar winning movie (the original post, and the follow up). We found the following characteristics most…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Scratch-off Lottery Tickets: Expected Payouts, A Hidden Benefit?

Update See the comments, but thanks to readers' arguments I believe I was wrong in an essential calculation. I've reworked the text to correct my error, which was small in…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Should Scientists Be Held Legally Responsible for Their Results?

That title is lifted from Popular Science's brief article. The idea is that scientists---as philosopher Christopher Essex reminded me, just like doctors and accountants and businessmen and engineers and everybody…
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Posted inFun Statistics

How To Maximize The Chance Of Winning The Office Super Bowl Pool

Forget climatology. It's time for something really controversial. How to fill in those grid squares on the Super Bowl office pool. An example of one is shown below. The full…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Only 2 days left! Predictions For 2012: Submit Yours Today!

Update Predictions are closed for this year. Come back New Year's Eve to see how we've done. We'll change the rules slightly this year and ask that everybody now predict…
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Posted inCulture Fun Statistics

Predictions For 2011. How’d We do?

Last January 1st I asked for everybody to provide verifiable predictions for the year. Time for reckoning! Tomorrow I'll ask us to provide predictions for 2012, so hold off on…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Top 10 Upsets In The NFL Over Last Decade

Today's post is over at Edgehogs. It's all self explanatory. Surf on over to comment. I'd write more, but my North Pole duties have me busier than average. Tip: Even…
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  1. Brian (bulaoren) on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 20, 2026

    Where do homicide rates fit in?

  2. McChuck on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 20, 2026

    I am morally certain that murdering innocent children for fun and profit is evil. There. That was easy.

  3. JohnK on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 19, 2026

    For me, 'moral certainty' is a category error. Such talk has to be refused, not engaged. One example. The New…

  4. Alistair on We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) ResearchAugust 19, 2026

    Google Scholar's result counts are extremely broad estimates and highly opaque. It's not a reliable or reproducible method assessing topical…

  5. A 7 Eleven Customer Got the Perfect Receipt and Saved It Forever He Spent $7.11 at 7-Eleven at Exactly 7:11 PM on 7/11. What He Did With the Receipt Makes It Even Better on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?August 19, 2026

    […] that annotates viral images posted the story on July 23, 2026. It described the customer paying $7.11 at 7-Eleven…

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