Posted inStatistics
Time Series And Causality: Global Warming Example
Temperature causes Here is an atmospheric monthly average temperature series: T = (61, 69, 69, 70, 72, 65, 63) (all F). What caused the temperature to take the value T1…
Posted inStatistics
Real Climate Temperature “Trend” Article Gets It Wrong (Like So Many Do)
This post is one that has been restored after the hacking. All original comments were lost. Everything that can go wrong with a time series analysis has gone wrong with…
Posted inStatistics
Lovejoy’s New Attempt To Show We Are Doomed Does Not Convince
We last met Shaun Lovejoy when he claimed that mankind caused global temperatures to increase. At the 99.9% level, of course. He's now saying that the increase which wasn't observed…
Posted inStatistics
There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection
This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
Explanation Vs Prediction
Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…
Posted inStatistics
On UFOs, Salt Intake, And Heart Disease
Michael "State of Fear" Crichton once proposed that UFOs were responsible for global warming. Why not? After all, something caused that record amount of snow in Detroit yesterday. Don't get…
Posted inPhilosophy Statistics
The Deadly Sin Of Reification! Day Three
Zeno Phobia Counting day. How many ways can you skin a cat if the number of sharp versus dull knives is this and such. Simple stuff, easy to get the…
Posted inStatistics
(Most) Everything Wrong With Time Series
It came out at my recent meeting that a compilation of everything wrong with time series was in order. A lot of this I've done before, and so, just as…
