Upcoming Probability & Statistics Talks! The Climate, Over-Certainty & More!


Update Classic Posts page link fixed.

When & Where

I have no idea. As soon as somebody hires me to give them.

Since I am out of the system, I don’t know anybody and thus can’t ask the right personages, whomever they may be, so I’m asking you, dear readers, on the wee small chance you might be the right person.

Titles of some talks:

  • The Over-Certainty Pandemic,
  • Science, Not Scientism,
  • Everything You Believe About Statistics is Wrong,
  • Top Seven Fallacies in Probability and Statistics,
  • What Predictive Analytics Should Be,
  • Global Warming Isn’t So Hot.

Custom talks, seminars, classes and so forth made on request. See the Classic Posts page for sample videos.

Blog Changes: Classic Posts

Following some good advice from our friend John Cook, I did some tweaking on the layout. Of most interest is the fixing of the Classic Posts page, which is now linked on the right sidebar.

Navigation is easier, and after I winnow some of the older material on statistics, it will be easier still.

The Contact Me page has the old Hire Me and Talks page and also information about subscribing to the blog. See the Contribute page about contributing guest posts. Any regular reader is a colleague.

I’ve also cleaned up the Who is WMB page. Pay special attention to the words “I am wholly independent; i.e., I have no position. I depend on you, dear reader, for my livelihood. I do not jest. Spread the word.”

Be careful who you spread it to. I was lined up at a major you-know-the-name think tank for a position on exposing the statistical errors in global warming, but it turned out upon vetting, so I was point-blank told, that a VP at the fine organization was himself same-sex attracted and took wild exception to my position on so-called same-sex marriage. So my job was called off.

What have the two things, global warming and the philosophy of natural law, to do with one another? “Nothing” is the answer I’m looking for. But politics is politics.

This reminds me of the best advice I can give new academics: keep your mouth shut and toe the line until you get tenure. But by then, of course, it might be too late.

Update For climate fans, it seems appropriate here to re-present the running total of all consideration I have received for my work on global warming: $0 (rounded to the nearest dollar). I only wish the conspiracy fans were right about Big Oil passing out money like the government does grants to true believers.

Time Series

I’ve been asked by people via email about where folks can go to read more about Time Series, particularly those new and shiny methods written about it “Netherlands Temperature Controversy: Or, Yet Again, How Not To Do Time Series“. Here.

And in my upcoming book—to be published by…?

I am the only one I know who writes about these things. All statistics books I know are interested, as is natural, in discussing zippy keen methods and not the philosophy. Not only with time series, but with all sorts of analyses. It’s not that the philosophy is entirely neglected, but it’s a poor cousin next to the mathematics.

Incidentally, I was very proud of us with that post. Many people, whether the agree or disagree, are finally starting to understand what I’m saying. If you understood that post, then you’ll finally get this one: “The True Meaning Of Statistical Models.” I’ll redo this one (yet again) maybe tomorrow or Monday. Not repost, redo. There’s always another way to state things.

What Book?

It’s being worked on, slowly and surely. A well known publisher is considering it. If they reject it, which is likely on the premise that most publishers reject most manuscripts, I’ll try with another, then another, then back to self publishing. I’ll comfort myself with the memory that Principia Mathematica was also self published.

On the other hand, the PM, though it was influential, wasn’t read! (I dare you to try.)

Always End With A Joke

Briggs: Jimmy, where are you going tomorrow?

Durante: I’m goin’ to the insane asylum.

Briggs: An insane asylym?

Durante: Yeah, I’m gonna get me a ravin’ beauty.


  1. Nick

    You are building something very good here. Good luck Mr. Briggs; I will be one of the first to purchase and/or freely download the book!

  2. James

    I also wish you luck. I too am on the “waiting list” for your book. Even if it was just a curated version of the classic posts!

  3. DAV

    The guy on the floor in the picture must have been in a test run for VA or Obamacare benefits and the speaker is explaining how much the poor guy has been helped by these programs. The audience appears to be taking all of this in stride. Must be Democrats.

  4. Gary

    DAV, rumor has it the audience was made up mostly of healthcare exchange website programmers.

  5. Tom Scharf

    Possibly a post on the contradiction between those who find themselves to be the most tolerant and those who feel the greatest need for the thought police to take action.

  6. Dear Briggs,

    I suggest the following for self support:

    1. Try to get your blog posts syndicated somewhere, anywhere. I am sure Slate would love them. But, if not, I think you might have good luck with takimag.com. There are some Godless heathens there, but, as the kids say, ‘whatevs’. Maybe you could try Breitbart, and others.

    1.5 Connect with the like minded. Though it may be hard to believe, there are people like you – in what one my call the ‘anti-scientism’ movement – that have an audience. Shameless connect with them in order to connect with their large audience.

    2. You’re in New York, and so is Red Eye. I am sure somehow you could get on Red Eye. It would be a good fit.

    3. Pick fights with famous people on twitter. This seems to work out well.

    4. Sex tape.

    5. Podcasts. Video or audio. Less and less people can read, so this would be helpful. Also, get on other people’s podcasts as much as possible.

    6. If you get really desperate, use moodle.org to teach an online course based on your books and charge a small fee.

    7. Write a version of your book that is a little more targeted to popular culture. You are nearly there with many of your blogs. Self publish a collection of blog posts. Give it to people that are likely to agree with you and have an audience.

  7. Shecky R

    Briggs, you need to apply for government jobs… no one in major private industry or ‘free enterprise’ will risk hiring an active blogger/tweeter (they fear as soon as you don’t get the pay-raise you wanted, or whatever, you’ll be bashing them across the Web).

  8. Ray

    Surely you could get some of the money being paid by the Koch brothers or big oil or big coal to climate deniers. According to the MSM all climate deniers are paid off by the fossil fuel industry.

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