Forgive the brief post. Got back late, got up early, and have to be out early. Don’t want to miss Mark Steyn’s breakfast speech.
If you can, at least see Will Happer’s talk. He’s a well known, and very well respected, physicist from Princeton. He showed us all that global warming is no different than Alice in Wonderland.
Happer showed the same picture we have all seen. The one where the models are way-up-here and the reality way-down-here, and where the gap between models and reality is growing wider and wider and wider and…
As I never tire of emphasizing, lousy models prove lousy theories. The theories which underlie the climate models must be wrong. Must as in must. Climate models have no predictive skill. They do not even come close to besting persistence (whoso readeth, let him understand:).
Every working scientist knows this and damn well ought to start admitting it. If you care about the truth, it’s time to uphold it. This farce has gone on long enough.
It used to be a fundamental principle of science that when a theory produced bad predictions every scientist except True Believers said so. True Believers? The originators of the theories. Blondlot never admitted his N-rays didn’t exist. Have Fleischmann and Pons allowed themselves to believe cold fusion was an error? Chiropractors are amoung us.
This is why last week I quoted Planck: Science progresses one funereal at a time.
We’re going to have to wait for the few who originated this carbon-dioxide-will-kill-us-all-if-we-don’t-act-soon theory to die off before global warming completely disappears. But the bulk of scientists who know exactly what I’m talking about. Enough already.
So since we know, with as much certainty as we know anything else, that the models stink, and therefore are based on a faulty theory, what’s the right theory? Excellent question. Let’s find out. But the breathless positive feedbacks built-in by assumption to the models surely can’t be right.
I understand why scientists want to avoid telling the simple truth that the models are broken. No one wants to be savaged by the activist press and lying, self-aggrandizing politicians.
But if just a few more would admit basic scientific procedures we can put this false theory behind—and move on to the next scare. Sustainability? Climate Justice?
If you are a civilian and you’re getting your knowledge from the mainstream media or politicians or anywhere but the primary source material, you’re lost. And if you can’t read this primary source material, then you’d be better off ignoring everything you hear in the press. Go to a local university and seek out a physicist and ask him, “Is Briggs right? When predictions are so lousy and growing lousier for nearly two decades, does that mean the theory which is responsible for those predictions must be wrong?”
Do not ask one of the handful of True Believers—the same dozen guys who show up in all the quotes. Ask a working physicist who has never showed up on television. Do not ask a psychologist, or a sociologist, or an economist, or anybody else who could not understand what dynamic modeling is.
Go and ask. I dare you.
All typos free again.
Update Yours Truly is pictured being interviewed by Marc Morano in this hilariously inept coverage. Best shot is of an empty room labeling it a “party.” The bug wit or liar who wrote that failed to discover all those chairs were soon to be filled with the authors of Climate Change: The Facts for a book signing.