And thanks to alert reader Peter, we have the CDC data back to 2009. That data stops early in 2019, where it is replaced with our usual CDC source. That goes through (now) Week 14. Beyond that is another CDC source, that keeps track of COVID, but also has all-cause deaths no entered into the other official sheet. It’s a mess!
You’ll see there are also some small discrepancies between the three CDC sources. All will be plotted, including the under-reporting from the older source around 2019.
England & Wales
Here, like yesterday, are England & Wales all-cause deaths, now from 1993, marrying the two sources noted above.
Coronavirus easy to see! And so are the extra deaths, in that dashed line, which is all-cause deaths minus COVID deaths. The secondary spike, which ordinary isn’t here, is likely caused by the panic. See yesterday for an explanation of how it appears England’s reaction is causing extra deaths.
Problem with this picture is that it’s totals; doesn’t account for population change. Here’s the same, adjusted for population. All deaths per 100,000 population.
Coronavirus doesn’t look like it will be the equivalent body count. That honor goes to the 1999-2000 flu. Congratulations! The silver goes to the 1998-1999 flu year.
Best corona could do was the bronze. Can’t fault its effort, though.
These plots could change, but probably not by much, once I track down population numbers for just England & Wales and not the whole UK. The shape likely won’t change much, I mean. The absolute numbers of course will.
Once I find more data, it’s likely COVID won’t even place. Here’s what I mean. This graph is from Peter.
These are yearly, and by 1,000 persons, not 100,000 like the weeklies. Peter used the official data and then “For years before 1971, I extrapolated the population of England and Wales from the wikipedia entries on their demographics in order to calculate a rate.” The shape is what counts, however. It’s clear enough that 2020 has almost 0 chance of beating any year before 1950, and probably not even 1990. (The WWI and WWII blips are obvious.)
Still, we all remember the great lockdowns of the past. Right? There were yearly panics, with 24 hour news coverage, delivered by postage of course, before 1950. Nobody remembers, because it was before the internet and all the old documents were lost in a fire.
USA! USA! USA!
Here are the counts:
You can see where the first source tails off in 2019. If you stare, you can see the small discrepancies between the old and new sources—all CDC.
There are then two peaks at the end. The smaller is from the second official CDC source, which is always a few weeks behind in counts. The higher peak is from the third official CDC source. Both also drop off in the last week, as these counts for other deaths beside COVID aren’t all in yet.
Even here, in the raw numbers, we can see that coronavirus is likely not going to win the championship. The media and political elites are pulling for it. We’ll see if the CDC can supply with enough extra bodies in the next week or two.
The dashed line is the third official source subtracting COVID deaths. You can just see a smaller secondary peak, à la England. This is even after all the effort that went into categorizing every possible death as coronavirus. That means the reaction is likely responsible for these deaths.
We can do the same for the US we did for England, but blowing up the last period, showing all causes and subtracting COVID (dashed line).
England is 20 yrs ahead in bad health, or so I was told by the BB.
The COVID numbers aren’t going to increase (or much, even with Yale’s help), but the all cause numbers will a bit. How much? The third official source (with the COVID deaths) is in green. You can see that as you go back about 6 weeks, the additions (to make up delays in reporting) decrease to almost nothing. One or two weeks back, and it’s as much as 5 thousand added.
We will see the all cause April peak boost up a tad. And, of course, the huge under-report at the end will be filled in. Point is: COVID is not going to break the 21st Century record. It came close! So be of good cheer.
Anyway, we can now see the secondary spike like England has. There may be extra deaths, and probably are due to, say, suicides, but they don’t show as clearly as in England, where people are dropping off at much faster rates. Maybe 10 to 15 thousand after this is all over.
Those 10 to 15 thousand will always be an estimate. And I can’t prove they’re extra. However, I believe it’s damn likely. And if so, it’s proof our martial law lite killed. Not as much as in England, but some.
Now how about the per-capita numbers:
This only goes back to 2009, which limits the field, but even with few competitors, COVID doesn’t look like it’s going to make it. Don’t lose hope, though. We still have a couple of weeks left, and who knows what numbers the CDC will issue. There’s still a chance!
No way it will beat first place, though. You remember the Hong Kong flu, otherwise known as the Year of the Great Lockdown? And the Asian flu a decade earlier than that? That was when the government ordered everybody to build “bomb” shelters and wait out the year.
They got that nickname because everybody inside got bombed. Which is why now nobody can remember it.
I’ll update these graphs when the CDC releases new data each week. Have to do more countries etc.
How about in general? Glad you asked!
That’s from the paper “Trends in Recorded Influenza Mortality: United States, 1900–2004” by P Doshi.
You can see there isn’t any hope at all for coronavirus. It won’t even make the top 10. It’ll be lucky to make it even a noticeable blip once 2020 is over.
Why? See, what happens is that these bugs come, kill off a bunch of people. But many of these, since they’re old, would have died this year anyway. Sad, but true. That means if you’re looking for 2020 to be a banner year, don’t bother.
Keep panicking, though. Be fearful. Your government and neighbors expect it of you. Do your duty!
Don’t know where else to put this.
I can’t believe I didn’t remember I know this guy. When I was a professor at Cornell Med school, I had to go next door to Rockefeller to work with Wittkowsi and his group for a day or two. This was years ago. I didn’t peg to it until I heard his voice. I have a terrible memory for names. Being a radioman, I’m terrific with voices.
To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here