The flu vaccine became widely available in the middle of the Twentieth Century. Since then, nobody has died of the flu.
“Briggs, you fool. Not everybody takes the flu vaccine. Why can’t you stop exaggerating.”
You’re right. Let me try again. The flu vaccine became widely available in the middle of the Twentieth Century. Since then, nobody who has received the vaccine has died of the flu.
Strange, too, that the WHO says up to 650 thousand people die of the flu. Every year. Even in the presence of the vaccine. Even, for some, after taking the vaccine.
“You know darn well there is no single unique flu virus, you fraud. The virus mutates, and the vaccines changes from year to year in an effort to target what scientists think will be the primary mutations raging through the population.”
That so? Do they always guess right?
“No, but that doesn’t make the vaccine of any less worth.”
Yes, it does. If scientists guess wrong about the mutations, completely wrong, then the vaccine is of no worth at all, and even of negative worth because in come cases, the vaccine causes harm. Doesn’t it?
“There is still some value, they say, but maybe not large. Anyway, I’m not worried about side effects.”
Being worry free is a commandment of scripture, I’ll grant you that. But isn’t it so that even if the scientists do guess right about the season’s mix of mutations, some people who still get the vaccine still keel over early into pit, pushed there by flu?
And will the coronadoom virus mutate, too? Indeed, haven’t several variants already been discovered?
“I suppose so.”
The vaccines being developed now target the known variations of coronadoom. Supposing these vaccines are somewhat efficient, it’s no guarantee they’ll work for the new mutations, right?
“No, no guarantee.”
And isn’t it the case the vaccine could interact badly with new mutations, as sometimes happens with vaccines?
“That is true.”
All right. And isn’t it also true that coronadoom appears on its way out as any kind of major killer? Deaths are dropping everywhere, are they not? Haven’t measured T-cell and other antibody immunities been noted in sampling throughout the world, suggesting herd immunity is near?
“I know you expect me to argue about new cases, but I won’t. What you say about deaths dropping is true. But then you have to admit there could be an even deadlier second wave coming in the fall!”
That’s true, there could. And there could be a third even deadlier wave arriving next spring. And a fourth even deadlier still wave next fall. And a fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, more! All these are logical possibilities. But so far the evidence is this pandemic is like all others and will peter out to background levels soon. What evidence, besides terror and the worry you profess not to feel, do you have for these deadlier waves?
“I didn’t say I wasn’t worried about a second deadly wave. Isn’t it enough that it could happen? Some models say it could.”
The same models that got the first wave so wrong? Plus you do recall that every model every only says what they’re told to say? Never mind, skip it. Low-blow question. We were talking about vaccines, so let’s stick to that.
Let me summarize. Vaccines protect but don’t guarantee that people who take them won’t die from the bugs vaccinated against. The bugs themselves mutate and stymie vaccination efforts, and even cause problems, even deadly problems, with mutation-vaccine interactions. This new vaccine for the coronavirus, the first ever vaccine of its type in humans, has caused some nasty side effects in trials, and will likely do so in general populations.
Plus, most people wouldn’t need it. I mean, those under, say, 60 and healthy are at more risk of slipping and falling on banana peels and cracking open their skulls than in succumbing to coroadoom. This will be even truer by the time the vaccine actually arrives.
“There you go exaggerating again. I wish you’d stop it.”
Very well. You take my point. The young and healthy aren’t dying from coronadoom and don’t need a vaccine. Finally, the bug seems, like in all pandemics, to be fading away. A vaccine, whatever its merits, isn’t universal salvation against the virus, yes?
“Not universal, no.”
It just doesn’t seem necessary for most people, especially those tens, perhaps even hundreds, of millions who already had the bug, most without even knowing it, and who are now immune. To the existing variants, that is. But it’s only those existing variants the vaccine will be good for. We also agreed that death counts are already at background levels, especially in your neck of the woods.
“I suppose so.”
So we needn’t wait for a vaccine to return to our old way of lives. We can do so now, yes?
“No. I still insist we stay in a state of emergency until the vaccine saves us all.”
Can’t talk you out of it?
“No, you can’t.”
Well, thank you for talking to me today, Governor Boris Whitmer. It’s been a pleasure.
“The pleasure was all mine.”
The Blonde Bombshell recommends this interesting thread about polio, and the polio vaccine. I’m too ignorant on the subject to know what I don’t know, so I’ll let better educated readers critique it.
1. The polio story as you learned it is wrong. It’s one of the most often misunderstood sequence of events in the last two hundred years. I wanted to explain a few things about the disease to help people understand what actually happened. pic.twitter.com/xT7YjIb4kZ
— Forrest Maready (@forrestmaready) June 8, 2018
Gist: infantile paralysis was rare to nonexistent, then, after introduction of certain pesticides, many and not just polio viruses attacked chemically weakened spinal cords. The vaccines were not terribly effective, given more than one virus attacks. The problem (polio) went away after the pollutants were banned or barred. Except in so-called developing countries which still now have an infantile paralysis problem and for the same reasons, even with vaccine use. The polio vaccine is somewhat helpful, but not nearly completely.
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