Statistics

Trump Likely To Survive The Coronadoom

After I wrote this, I went over to Drudge, which I rarely do these days, and he’s on full blown hersteria about Trump’s illness. Hilarious.

So Trump has caught the coronadoom, and many cannot contain their glee.

It’s not just our nation’s most celebrated wishing our President unwell, it’s also various political figures. Eleanor Penny, who worked at George Soros’s Open Democracy Outlet, said “I don’t hope Trump dies from Covid. I hope he dies from anything, I’m really not fussy.”

There isn’t space to quote from all the people on the left who act as if the culture war we are in is, in fact, a war. Except to say that these folks should not act surprised if some day the favors are returned.

Some commentary on Trump’s condition is more refined, but speculative. There is nothing wrong with this. Speculation is all we have; it is all the President’s doctors have, as well. Doctors’ treatments for most diseases are in many cases nothing more than hopeful, but authoritative, guesses. The only sin against guessing is getting the uncertainty wrong.

The New York Times, for instance, speculates that

Mr. Trump’s persistent refusal to wear a mask may also change the course of his illness; if he became infected while his face was uncovered, he may have been exposed to a greater concentration of virus, which also raises his risk for severe disease, according to experts who have not examined him but were able to speak generally about patients like him.

We, too, have not examined Mr Trump, but since the Times has set the standard of allowing uninformed commentary on the course of the President’s illness, we’ll do them same.

Starting with this opinion on masks from Dr Fauci himself.

In the United States, people should not be walking around with masks….There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and it might even block a droplet. But it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is.

Well, masks have become our new national religion, an obvious outward display of faith. How dare Fauci speak against them.

Anyway, Mr Trump is 74. The CDC says that 1.2% people in his age bracket, 65-74, have died this year from causes other than COVID-19. It also says 0.13% of these people—ten times fewer—have died at least with, and not necessarily of, the coronavirus.

As long as we’re speculating, we might as well do so about Joe Biden, who is 77. In his age bracket, 75-84 years old, 2.9% of Americans this age have died so far this year of causes other than COVID-19. And 0.32% have died at least with the coronavirus.

In both age brackets, then, Americans have about a ten times greater risk of dying from something other than COVID-19. But those in the older bucket are dying at rates about twice those in the younger bucket (from any cause).

Which means what we always knew it means: Older people die more often than younger.

The difference here is that the President has tested positive for the coronavirus, and has been said to be experiencing “mild” symptoms.

The President’s weight is likely a strike against him. Based on an item from the Drudge tabloid, the Times speculated the President may also have other unreported comorbidities. We are thus free to speculate that his health before the infection is as reported, which is fine.

Having comorbidities is never good. Of those those who died with the coronadoom, about four times as many had other illnesses, 22% versus 6% with no comorbidities, according to the CDC.

But these aren’t the right numbers to use to judge the President’s prognosis. What we want to know is the infection fatality rate for people like him. Nobody really knows this number yet, since all the data is not in. Some estimate it as high as 4.2% for the President’s sex and age bracket.

Meaning a 95.8% chance of recovery.

Some estimate women do about twice as well as men. Thus, according to Gender Theory, if Trump changed his Mr to Mrs, she’d have a better chance for survival. (I dare you to find a professor who will openly and on-the-record disagree with this.)

A better guess is to use reports from Mr Trump’s actual doctors. Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at Walter Reed said “The president is doing very well”. He said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump’s progress, and that his symptoms were already “resolving and improving”.

Or we could take a look at the man himself, who looks like he’s doing okay.

Trumps is going to disappoint a lot of people if he lives—which the vast majority of people infected with this virus do. You can read all about that in The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe.

Update Golly.

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Categories: Statistics

44 replies »

  1. Trump getting the covid and recovering is going to be an enormous factor in ending this panic. People are going to realize that it’s just not as big a deal as they’ve been told it is.

    Lats week they couldn’t contain themselves with the, “SEE, morons? Masks WORK!” nonsense without thinking it through.

    What are they going to say in response when he says, “Yeah, I caught it and I didn’t die and I’m supposedly high risk. Why are you still walking around looking like that?”

  2. “The only sin against guessing is getting the uncertainty wrong.” Love it! What a perfect summary of one of the underlying principles of this blog! It has inspired a few of my own.
    1. Large uncertainty bars cover a multitude of (guessing) errors.
    2. Blessed are the uncertain, for they will enjoy the confidence of their peers.
    3. To guess is human, to be certain, divine.
    4. To guess or not to guess, I’m not so sure.

    Keep up the fine work, Mr. Briggs!!

  3. ABS can not see a safe and painless way out of the Coup conflict.

    Those involved in the permanent coup against Trump are this close to being revealed publicly which would lead to investigations, charges, trials, verdicts and jail.

    It doesn’t seem likely the conspirators (there is no such thing as a co-conspirator), who would not accept the results of an election, are going to accept prosecution and jail.

    Either the Coup dies or Trump dies.

    Who knows what is being injected into the POTUS but one thing can be known for sure – ABS does not trust anyone involved in this matter.

    It would be nice for the Trump supporters to have the Administration settle on an official lie and to make that public because the conflicting responses from Mr. Meadows (such a pacific and pastoral surname, no?) to his Walter Reed physicians (nine of the ten who appeared in public were white which means white supremacy, one supposes) do not make sense.

    In any event, some of our grandchildren’s children will learn what really happened fiddy or so years from now once the books have been cleaned and cooked.

  4. “(I dare you to find a professor who will openly and on-the-record disagree with this.)”

    My first good laugh of the day, thanks!

    BAS: To your list I would add (from Apollo 13): “Don’t make things worse by guessing.”

  5. O, ABS forgot to add that Walter Reed had the hospital named after him because during a road trip to Cuba to discern the cause of yellow fever etc he said Let them skeeters feast on those guys, not me and one of those guys got the Cubadoom, got very ill, and the other one died.

    The members of the commission (sent to Cuba) were Walter Reed, who was to act as chairman, Carroll, Agramonte, and a bacteriologist, Jesse W. Lazear. In the summer of 1900, when the commission investigated an outbreak of what had been diagnosed as malaria in barracks 200 miles (300 kilometres) from Havana, Reed found that the disease was actually yellow fever. Of the nine prisoners in the prison cell of the post, one contracted yellow fever and died, but none of the other eight was affected. Reed and his colleagues thought it possible that this patient, and only he, might have been bitten by some insect. Reed therefore decided that the main work of the commission would be to prove or disprove the agency of an insect intermediate host.

    On August 27, 1900, an infected mosquito was allowed to feed on Carroll, and he developed a severe attack of yellow fever. Shortly afterward Lazear was bitten, developed yellow fever, and died.

    It was owing to his scientific sagacity that Doctor Reed had a hospital named after him.

  6. ABS: “Either the Coup dies or Trump dies.” Not necessarily. Both can continue as they have in the last four years. It’s not either/or. Eventually both happen, but the timing is completely unpredictable and either death will not affect the other.

  7. I’ve noticed a pretty universal Motte and Bailey technique when it comes to masks:

    If the defenders are forced to cite studies they will say they only thing that they can: that masks are not very effective at all at protecting the wearer from transmission, but that they can have a minor but noticeable effect in preventing the wearer from infecting others. Thus the defenders will hammer the point hard that even if you don’t care about getting sick it’s still your duty to wear the mask because it’s actually about defending other people, not yourself.

    They will also admit that masks offer far less protection than just not being present in the same place as another person. In this way they can defend their lockdowns even in areas with high mask usage.

    But the second someone they don’t like gets infected it instantaneously becomes “He should have worn a mask. Masks will definitely protect you against infection, and if you don’t wear a mask you are guaranteed to get infected.” Again, even by what they say usually this isn’t true. At best masks are primarily for a slight reduction in transmission to other people. But the second it becomes useful for them to do so, they will act like masks are a magical talisman which are 100% effective. Recently they’ve even been going further than that and saying that masks also can grant you immunity to the Wuhan flu and will protect you from severe symptoms even if you get it.

    Note too that none of this will get removed for being “inaccurate or misleading”. But say “hey, it looks like Hydrochloroquine worked pretty well in several trials” and see how fast your comment gets yanked, even if you are a doctor.

  8. One thing we can be certain: If Trump dies now and Biden is elected Socialism will increase and liberty decrease.

  9. Dear Sheri. There has been a continuing coup but it has not been covered-up as well as it was in the beginning.

    More information is being exposed as to both the men and the methods of the coup.

    Best selling books have been written about this coup and the coup seems to be drawing to a critical juncture where either it or Trump must die. It seems apparent the military is arrayed against him which is why having Trump receiving treatment at Walter Reed is not pretty good

    Whenever anything goes wrong ABS’ granddaughter says O no, that’s not pretty good

  10. Comparing Trump’s physical/mental condition to Cuomo’s (when he was infected), Cuomo looked like sh*t warmed over.

  11. Wait just a darned minute!
    If Trump would be doing significantly better if he were a WOMAN…. WHY DOESN’T HE JUST DECLARE HIMSELF A WOMAN??

    Wouldn’t that be the simplest of all solutions? And the most direct?

    Since we already know that men and women are exactly alike — except when women don’t want to be exactly alike …. And since we equally know that the only thing which separates Men from Women (avoiding that nasty biological essentialism) is the ‘KNOWING’ one is man or woman (and subsequent declaration of this ‘found knowledge’)… What the heck, Trump should just declare himself so!

    Not only would his medical condition significantly improve, SHE herself would then become the first female president! What a twofer!

    And who, on the Progressive Left — which swallows this ‘lived truth’ nonsense as absolute gospel — could possibly disagree?? Certainly they couldn’t and wouldn’t say Trump can NOT become a woman via declaration? They’d have no choice but to celebrate!

    Oh Frabjous Day!

  12. If chinkypox eighty-sixes Trump then the Tribulations begin. Trump lives and it is the Mandate of Heaven that he ascends the purple throne of the God Emperor. And then, perdition to his enemies.

  13. If masks are such effective collectors of Beer Flu strands why don’t we have special disposal procedures and points for them?

    I mean, if Beer Flu is so deadly isn’t tossing your mask in the garbage like leaving a massive bioweapon lying around?

    This is a pretty obvious hole in the hoax that our progressive betters have failed to address.

  14. So very glad that President Trump will be fully healthy again!! God is so very much blessing us and giving to us even more the opportunity as individuals and as a country, to be His, to return to Him. Our choice.
    God bless, C-Marie

  15. I breathe out 4% or 40,000 ppm of that deadly pollutant (sarc) Carbon Dioxide with every exhalation.
    The atmospheric level of this odourless transparent essential trace gas is 400 ppm.
    As all us grown ups know we need much more of it to make this wonderful world more green.
    If I wear a muzzle, or what looks more like a sanitary towel over my mouth and nose, I will be breathing in dangerous amounts of my own CO2.
    It is not coincidental that if I was to breathe in 40,000 ppm of CO2, I would probably die in 30 minutes
    So no – I refuse to be emasculated.

  16. “One thing we can be certain: If Trump dies now and Biden is elected Socialism will increase and liberty decrease.”

    I always find comments like this amusing and little infuriating.
    The liberty ship has long sailed. And worrying about socialism when your enemy is rabid with anti-white genocidal rage is the epitome of cluelessness.

  17. When I point out to the Frightened Karens of Facebook (yeah, I know) that CV-19 deaths are flat-lining, their reply is similar to the following: “It’s not just deaths! Many who survive will suffer permanent organ damage!” I guess that’s one way to keep the scare going.

  18. Trump is getting better because of very msn made interventions.
    Even as a man of his age he has a higher chance of survival than the opposite given no other information but that. Which of course is not a medical assessment but a statistical one. Never mind, skip it.

    God love the medics, too!

    Some of the might not have voted for him, but I expect they did, if the Dr on the podium is as his outward appearance implies: solid, tall, dependable, unflappable, sensible and kind.

    Boris is praying for Trump and so am I.
    God loves the British too!

    American deaths now at 214,000 on worldometer.

    The final figure is goig to be at least four hundred thousand. I hope his sensible staff and allies, as opposed to the those carping from the sidelines, discover a proper way to talk about it before the votes are finally cast.

    catch up soon or Biden’s going to win. Imagine God was actually watching you talking about death of others.

  19. Of course we’ll only know if this was even real if lardbutt Twumpie dies; otherwise may just be more Mark Burnett scripted, stage-managed buffoonery full of actors & skanks, signifying nothing….

  20. We should pause and reflect on the amazing resilience of folks like Henry Kissinger (97) and George Soros (90), who don’t seem to be cowering from the virus.

  21. No worries … President Trump will win the election. What happens in 2024 is the year to be concerned about. The progress the liberals, etc. are making in the U.S. is the result of unrepentant sin in the U.S. … God is allowing the reaping of the sowing. How much He allows is yet to be seen. Praying daily for those who have hearts for Him, to live for Him.

    Thank you for the prayers from England as we prayed when England’s Prime Minister Johnson was ill with covid. So glad that he recovered.

    God bless, C-Marie

  22. Herman Cain was the exact same age when he died last July.

    After seeing how much trouble he had breathing after his return to the White House, I would not rejoice to soon.

  23. “The final figure is goig (sic) to be at least four hundred thousand.”

    You foresee a doubling of the “attributed” deaths, Joy? The same to happen on your side of the pond? I’d take that bet in a heartbeat.

  24. I guess something happened to my comment…was it Satan, perhaps? Just pointing out that Trump telling us not to fear Covid, was both true and very Presidential.

    Also, Trump was discharged with oxygen saturation of 97-98% which is excellent, and walked vigorously up the outside steps to the Whitehouse balcony, which may have accounted for any perceived “trouble breathing.” I doubt if most commentators could match him in vigor, even without recovering from the Wuhan Flu.

    The other comment was, by the CDC’s own admission, only 6% of those dying “with” Covid, actually die “because of” Covid. Thus, if 400,000 people are eventually reported as dying “of” Covid, we can figure about 24K is the real number, far lower than die from many other causes. Time to give up our training burkas and get back to life?

  25. Whats the over/under until the media claims that President Trump did in fact die due to COVID-19, and that his current appearances are due to a body double?

    (I think that they actually will do this. Of course, they won’t come right out and say it, but they will have stories about “some people have speculated that…”)

  26. In Jesus’ Name, I forgive you. May you come to know Christ, to love Him, and to be His, always.
    God bless, C-Marie

  27. Sylvain,

    Care to tell us the god you believe in?

    (I swear loyalty to Jesus Christ. Can you say the same?)

  28. One recurring problem (that you of course are aware of) is the assumed but false homogeneity of the classifications: some 74 year olds are in nursing homes with life expediencies measured in single-digit months; others are vigorous and could live another 20 years. That first group, some small percentage of all 74 year olds, likely accounts for almost all the COVID deaths among that age group. The healthier, not in nursing homes cohort, likely accounts for very few.

    So applying a simple-minded age-based fatality rate to EVERYONE that age regardless of his underlying health is less than helpful – yet virtually everyone who can restrain their panic long enough to even look at the numbers seems to do it. (Not you or anyone here, of course.)

    The bottom line has to be: no matter what your age, if you are fundamentally in decent health, your risk will be much lower than the overall undifferentiated age based fatality rate – because those your age who are very ill account for a disproportionate percentage of the ‘rona kills. That’s ultimately what saying the 0.4% of population in nursing homes accounting for 60-70% of the deaths means. So Trump, even though he’s older and overweight, seems to be in vigorous good health and therefore was almost certainly at very, very slight risk.

  29. “Of those those who died with the coronadoom, about four times as many had other illnesses, 22% versus 6% with no comorbidities, according to the CDC”.

    Shouldn’t the sum of those two percentages be 100%? Either you have other illnesses or you don’t. There is no third option.

  30. If you’re the president of a country in which over 200,000 people have died from a disease which you then get yourself (probably due to not wearing a mask), it strikes me as grossly insensitive to say “don’t worry about this disease” after you’ve recovered.

  31. and “Nothing to fear but fear itself” spoken by a man who didn’t have to worry about paying the mortgage, worry about where his next meal was coming from … that wasn’t grossly insensitive was it?

    Seasons don’t fear the reaper?

    Keep Calm?

    Don’t Panic?

    So very insensitive

  32. Want this to stop very quickly? SMASH THE TRIBE AND STACK THEIR CORPSES IN TIMES SQUARE!!!! THEY have been behind most of the evil in this world for at least the past 100 years! They yearn for the “good old days” of their Messiahs – Lenin and Stalin – who they helped murder FIFTY MILLION across Russia and Eastern Europe. But then those do not count since they were mostly only Goyim…

  33. Mr. Swordfish, you are mis-stating what our POTUS said about Covid. He didn’t say “don’t worry about it”, he said “don’t fear it” and “don’t let it dominate your life.” Most sane people, when apprised of the true facts, would agree.

    COVID-19 SURVIVAL RATES (per CDC):
    Ages 0-19: 99.997%
    Ages 20-49: 99.98%
    Ages 50-69: 99.5%
    Ages 70+: 94.6%

    Survival Rate for those under 70 exceeds 99.5%

    Healthy people of all ages have even less to fear: by the CDC’s own admission, only 6% of those listed as dying of Covid, didn’t actually die of something else. For example, one commentator here pointed to Herman Caine, but Mr. Caine also had stage 4 pancreatic cancer!

    As for those “200,000” who died “with” Covid, your statement they were “probably not wearing a mask” is not in keeping with facts. Studies show that most people who died from Covid were practicing “staying inside, distancing, and masks” and many died in elder care centers. I understand that Hope Hicks wore her mask religiously, and yet she was one of the first Whitehouse staff to catch it.

    For 40 years, the CDC has known that masks don’t stop viruses in the general population, and Fauci himself has called them “security theater.” The main reason for medical masks is so that (much larger) bacteria from medical workers’ orafices doesn’t get into a patient’s wounds, and to protect medical workers themselves from bacterial infections via their noses and mouths. Protecting from viruses requires hazmat suits, which is why you see Ebola doctors wearing them.

    So masks for the general public are bad advice, and it even turns out that “Stay Inside” is very dangerous advice, as they’re now finding that a lack of Vitamin D (sunlight) increases Covid deaths by as much as 50%, not to mention that people need outdoors exercise to thrive.

    The policy of “stopping Covid at all costs” is not just impossible, it’s very harmful. A recent study showed that 46% of the top six cancers went undiagnosed during the first three months of the lockdown. Chemo wasn’t getting done, childhood immunizations weren’t getting done, suicides and suicide attempts increased, and so forth.

    We need a new classification: Covid Lockdown Deaths. Death of people, death of families, death of churches, death of businesses and livelihoods, death of sobriety, death of sports and physical fitness, death of sanity, death of hope, death of education, death of fair elections, and finally, death of the country.

    So, take the CDC’s own super-low death rate statistics, and take their own word that only 6% of even those, died solely because of Covid, and take that this is a crucial election year, and take all of the great articles and statistics on this site and elsewhere, and you have one of the biggest Commie gaslighting operations we’ve ever seen.

    Let’s face it, we were infected with a Communist China virus several decades ago, in our schools, and civic and gov’t institutions. This Wuhan flu is just the latest outbreak, kind of like the Shingles.

  34. @ Ann Cherry,

    > He didn’t say “don’t worry about it”, he said “don’t fear it” and “don’t let it dominate your life.”

    There’s no difference in meaning between these.

    > As for those “200,000” who died “with” Covid, your statement they were “probably not wearing a mask” is not in keeping with facts.

    I said TRUMP was probably not wearing a mask.

    > So, take the CDC’s own super-low death rate statistics […] one of the biggest Commie gaslighting operations we’ve ever seen.

    This conspiracy-theory rubbish isn’t worth responding to.

  35. Oh Mr. Swordfish, I see you are one of those who must always challenge and poke and have the last word. I’ll bet you’re fun at parties. Not!

    Here’s a little test: Instead of Trump, go to your happy place, and imagine that our President is your favorite Democrat/Communist or RINO…. or a “big L” Libertarian, this is an equal opportunity fantasy. Now imagine that this fantasy President has done everything that Trump has done, with respect to the “Coronadoom” as our gracious and brilliant host calls it. Wouldn’t you be rather proud, that a dunce Democrat finally got it right?

    In any case, your remarks, and those of your groupthink media masters, misquote our POTUS, just as is still done by “China Joe” re: Trump’s Charlottesville comments. Whether it’s a politician with a 47-yr. track record of selling us out, or a commentator such as yourself, it shows a lack of care about facts and accuracy.

    No need to “paraphrase” his actual words, it’s just dishonest, and your intent is to make it appear he’s trivializing the virus, when in fact he’s reassuring people that it’s highly beatable, thanks to more knowledge about the disease process, and the great drugs developed and fast-tracked under his administration.

    Whether or not Trump wears a mask, he is about the most socially distanced person on the planet. Don’t let camera angles fool you, nobody gets close to the POTUS without screening. There really isn’t any need to argue against Trump in this matter, even if you (foolishly) hate him. Yes, he and many Whitehouse inner circle were infected, but he’s happily showing how beatable this Covid disease process is, and the death rate is now pretty negligible as these things go, lower than from influenza, by many accounts. Indeed, many of them barely have symptoms, if at all, despite a “positive” test.

    Lastly, insofar as my “Commie” remark, “Commie” is widely understood as one who advocates the elimination of private property, forced collectivism in its various forms, forced starvation of people and businesses (Covid shutdowns, for example), an information cabal (google/fakebook/twits and so forth), and a grotesque surveillance state. In other words, the modern Democrat’s wet dream.

    Add on forced masking, as both a visible sign of fear, and a perfect exercise of obedience to The State, and you’ve got, for example, The Peoples Republic of California, a disaster on almost every level. “Conspiracy”, indeed. May the scales fall from your eyes, Mr. fish-man. Some call this the Wuhan Flu, to remind the forgetful who (knowingly) sent this our way. Just because there’s a cover-up, doesn’t mean it’s a conspiracy, but nice try.

    As noted in this splendid article by Lee Smith, “The American elite’s financial relationship with China is the key to understanding what’s been happening in America the past four years.”

    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/americas-china-class-fights-trump

  36. @ Ann Cherry,

    > Oh Mr. Swordfish, I see you are one of those who must always challenge and poke and have the last word.

    Said by someone responding with 1,000 words, most of them unnecessary? It’s quite obvious that there’s no real difference between saying ‘don’t worry’ and ‘don’t fear’. Indeed, your interpretation of Trump’s meaning is pretty much exactly the same as the way I understood it, and exactly what I was criticising.

    > No need to “paraphrase” his actual words, it’s just dishonest…

    You completely misrepresented what I said, but haven’t aknowleded doing so, yet I am dishonest? Incidentally, I didn’t use the word “paraphrase”, so please don’t put it in double quotation marks as if I did.

    > Whether or not Trump wears a mask, he is about the most socially distanced person on the planet.

    Please stop, my sides are hurting.

    > Just because there’s a cover-up, doesn’t mean it’s a conspiracy, but nice try.

    You’re describing a conspiracy theory involving global elites, an information ‘cabal’, deliberate release of Covid-19 (If I’m understanding “Some call this the Wuhan Flu, to remind the forgetful who (knowingly) sent this our way”) If the boot fits, wear it.

  37. Oh dear, SanFran Nan just announced they’ll be “looking at invoking the 25th Amendment” to get Trump out of office, because of his “health.” It’s the WuFluCoup! The whole dang Democrat party is now one big “Nurse Ratchet,” hoping to lobotomize the Bad Orange Man, before they come for the rest of us with their butterfly nets; masks in lieu of straight-jackets, and “legal weed” in lieu of thorazine! MAGA.

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