Statistics

WHO PCR Test False Positive Fiasco: Coronavirus Update L

WHO KNEW

The WHO last week admonished the world to watch the Ct level of PCR tests. Too high gives too many false positives. False positives artificially boost “case” numbers, and high “case” numbers prolong the panic.

Reminder: What the media calls “cases” are largely asymptomatic to low grade infections, with some number of false positives.

We have an article on the WHO fiasco that just came out:

PCR stands for “polymerase chain reaction.” PCR amplifies (“cycles”) sequences of nucleic acid (DNA and RNA). The test takes a tiny sample from a swab of mucus and creates a much larger sample. This amplification makes it much easier for instruments to detect the virus. But that means that if a sample is over-cycled, it might produce a positive result for the coronavirus, even though no active virus is present. A patient might only have little fragments of nucleic acid floating around in his system, but he’s neither sick nor contagious…

In PCR tests, running more cycles, raising the “cycle threshold” or Ct, is like cranking up the knob on [an amp subject to feedback]. A PCR test keeps doubling whatever is in the original sample until it detects the virus. The earlier it finds something, the more likely it’s dealing with an active infection. As Science magazine explained back in September, “A test that registers a positive result after 12 rounds, for a Ct value of 12, starts out with more than 10 million times as much viral genetic material as a sample with a CT value of 35.”

If it only detects viral material after, say, 37 to 40 cycles, then the test should be counted as negative…[but often isn’t]…

Until a few weeks ago, the Kansas Department of Health and Environment’s Health and Environmental Laboratories was running the test up to 42 cycles. Then, without fanfare, they quietly reduced that to 35.

Go to read the rest.

Let’s see how this looks in the numbers. Here is the daily positivity rate of tests (data sources below):

Ignore the wild swings at the beginning, which are caused by small numbers. The peak at 1 April coincides with the number of attributed deaths peak. As does the smaller mid-July peak, which matches when the coronadoom first expanded to the South and West.

Look close at around Thanksgiving and Christmas. Flat-ish. This is because of the large number of increased tests for people traveling, most of which were negative. There is then an expected sharp drop in tests (not positivity) around Christmas, and later again at New Years. This can boost positivity as it’s more likely people who suspect they’re ill show up to be tested, while everybody else stays home to celebrate.

Normally I put the daily number of tests in the NUMBERS section, but we need it here. Note that, like below, these numbers aren’t beset by late counts like CDC death numbers (or are by very little). So this graph’s history won’t change.

Tests re-peaked after the holiday, and have dropped slightly since the 15th.

Positivity (the graph above) is dropping rapidly. That implies at least two things are happening:

1) Lower Cts, fewer false positives. The WHO’s admonition, and the politics of the coronadoom, necessitate a lowering of “cases”—and with lower “cases” comes lower attributed deaths. We’ll see that below.

We already saw some localities lowered their Ct; it’s likely others have and will continue to do so.

2) Coming of spring.. Below, and for many, many, many weeks I have been shouting that deaths would peak around the first week or two of January—as they always do—and then begin to subside as it gets warmer. Not so warm in the Northeast now, but it is warmer in the south.

Authorities will take credit for this drop (weather and finally sensible Ct levels). It will be nauseating to endure their boasts, but at this point, we will all be glad for this nonsense to end as soon as possible.

VACCINE

Hank Aaron died last week, after his vaccine. No cause of death was given for him anywhere that I could discover.

I’m also hearing—as predicted!—rumors from unnamed professionals that the efficacy of the vaccine in the wild is much lower than the experimentally observed 90+%. I warned everybody it would decrease, likely to around 50%, a “regression to the mean” that happens to all drugs once they’re released.

Drug companies can tightly control experimental data, and experiments, but they’re subject to the winds after the drug is in the hands of real people.

BOOK UPDATE

The book is back in stock! The Price of Panic.

The price is still $12.99 for the hardback. You can’t afford not to buy.

Website of similar name: price of panic.

THE NUMBERS

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (the old weekly file, now suspect). Deaths by age. Covid & flu. WHO flu tracker. All current as of Monday night.

CDC weekly ALL CAUSE death counts, or the Perspective Plot, from late 2009 until now. The late drop off is late counting: it takes up to eight weeks to get all data, but most are in by three. We need to look at all cause deaths because we can’t quite trust the attributed COVID numbers.

The black line is deaths of any kind. The red is COVID. The blue line is flu+pneumonia (it’s the pneumonia that kills most flu patients). The blue is estimated starting mid year because CDC stopped separate reporting on flu. The suspicion is some flu and pneumonia deaths are being attributed to COVID.

You can see the initial peak in 2020, when the virus first hit in the northeast, and then a smaller bump when it spread south. The bump now is in line, and perhaps a bit higher, with what we expect to see this time of year on average.

DEATHS ALWAYS PEAK IN MID JANUARY, THEN DROP. EVEN WITHOUT GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON!

The January peaks are caused when we enter our voluntary lockdowns in winter, spreading bugs. This is also the “solution” governments hit upon to stop the spread of bugs. Lockdowns kill.

Here is the CDC deaths “involving” COVID.

Even with late counting it’s clear attributed deaths are on their way down—as we have been predicting. There is also concern some of these attributed deaths are flu or pneumonia and not COVID per se.

Here is another way to look at all deaths, the week-of-the-year all-cause deaths.

The 2020 estimated “excess” deaths (using my extrapolation model) are closing in. About 385 thousand. This will rise a bit with late counts.

IMPORTANT: these are not all COVID deaths! They include deaths from the “solution” to COVID, too. Plus increased suicides, cancers, heart attacks, and everything else due to lockdowns.

The green line at the left are 2021 numbers; obvious under-counts. I include them to show where we are.

Flu is still missing, even into 2021. CDC found one pediatric death for flu this season. Here is the WHO’s global flu tracker, which still shows flu has gone missing everywhere:

The black line at the bottom far left is 2021. I’ll color this next week. Flu is still gone the world over. Leading us to suspect some COVID deaths are really flu+pneumonia.

Here is the CDC official population mortality rates for the all causes other than COVID, and “involving” COVID (with and of; “involving” is CDC’s word).

Here are the same population fatality rates in tabular form:

POPULATION FATALITY RATES
                 Age     COVID OtherCause
1       Under 1 year 0.0000100    0.00490
2          1–4 years 0.0000013    0.00021
3         5–14 years 0.0000014    0.00013
4        15–24 years 0.0000120    0.00081
5        25–34 years 0.0000500    0.00150
6        35–44 years 0.0001400    0.00230
7        45–54 years 0.0004000    0.00420
8        55–64 years 0.0009600    0.00920
9        65–74 years 0.0023000    0.01900
10       75–84 years 0.0060000    0.04500
11 85 years and over 0.0170000    0.14000

No matter what age, there is at least about a 10 times or larger chance of dying from something else then COVID. If you’re under 44, the COVID risk is tiny. Our level of fear is in not in line with the actual risk for the majority of the population.

About masks in depth, see this article and this one. I am also working on a comprehensive article about masks. Hint: they do not work.

To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here

Categories: Statistics

25 replies »

  1. Bad Orange Man gone so we don’t have to scare people with the virus–we just destroy their jobs and let lecherous xy’s into xx’s restrooms and armies. Interesting, though, Joe keeps saying there is nothing we can do, so the masks and closing must be just torture of the population by its loving government….. I fully expect Joe to start “speaking” with a mask, duct tape underneath and his voice dubbed in from afar.

    Great explanation of the cycles and testing.

  2. PCR itself is just a process to take an input sample and brew up a larger output from it.

    The “test” is simply a bunch of arbitrary criteria dreamt up by Drosten, et al.

  3. The PCR test is like the Overlords: a tiny group aRtIfIcIaLy MaGnIfIeD until they appear to be a TERRIFYING MONSTER.

  4. Don’t look now but hospitalizations have dropped by about 17% since the start of the year and have really started to plummet since last week. I can’t say I’ve heard ANYTHING about it on the local or national news.

    This is also a function of backing off of testing willy nilly.

  5. Goose, that would make a dandy humiliation ritual that the Overlords can use to abuse us, given their obsession with sticking things in butts. Everyone must have their anal swab checked off on their health passport app or you can’t buy food. Traffic stop random checkpoints for butt swabs, et cetera, et cetera. Mad Dr. Rachel Levine will have many options to consider.

  6. You´ll be delighted to know that, in Austria, the percentage of reported infections decreased in a…97 % when PCR´s were substituted by lateral flow testing…

    I leave you with the words of a spanish biologist, scientist and ex-university professor, who is fighting like a lion everyday in the net: “They started by creating a test that could be useful to manipulate data. At this Cycle Threshold, the fake positives could be above 50%. This would mean that fake positives by PCR count like Covid cases, hospitalizations, ICU´s and deaths, when they´re not.

    Then, as soon as somebody noticed that positive PCR´s cases did not show symptoms, the “asyntomatic” character was created, a stroke of genius that consists of completely healthy individuals that increase the figures, and also create a cascade of panic and more PCR´s. Curiously enough, it was the german scientist Cristian Drosten who developed the study and calibrated it, although he was also involved in the creation, in a clear conflict of interests that created millionaires.

    The third great trick is attributing to Covid symptoms that are almost identical to the ones showed by the flu, cold´s adenovirus , bacterian pneumonia, sincitial virus, and make everybody believe that is all Covid”

  7. It’s all basically been a PCR test-induced psy-op from the beginning. Maybe a somewhat bad flu season, but not much different from many other such “bad flu seasons” (and no where near as bad as Spanish Flu of 1918-20, Asian Flu of the late ’50s, Hong Kong Flu, etc) over the years that were not used as an excuse to manipulate the world in to a “global health crisis” to remake the world order by consolidating economic and political power, curtailing civil liberties, destroying small businesses, and overthrowing a President. I’ve said it since last April – the global response to this coronavirus (assuming it truly exists as a “novel” virus truly distinguishable from flu or many other coronaviruses, which I increasingly doubt) is the greatest collective crime against humanity ever perpetrated.

    And even though some (mostly Democrat politicians, now that Biden has been installed) are now changing their tune with regard to the most strict lockdowns, re-opening some businesses and restuaruants to “25% capacity” etc, none of that truly matters until the most insane restriction is lifted and people wake up from the Mask Cult. Restaurants in my state have been re-opened for indoor dining since mid-December, but they still make people wear muzzles going in and out of the building, so it’s still a non-starter for sane people. Apparently I’d be a grave health risk to humanity if I walked in and out of the door or to my table without a mask, but once seated and I begin eating or drinking without a mask, with other people at tables nearby doing the same, apparently Covid vanishes (such a smart little virus!). The same with shopping anywhere, though they are technically open – grocery, bookstore, etc. – a non-starter as long as the Mask Cult continues. Out walking yesterday around the neighborhood, I saw a woman walking alone with her dog, wearing a face muzzle (surprised she didn’t have one on the dog as well!). The madness just continues to beggar belief. These people are truly like the worst brainwashed cultists imaginable. Jim Jones’ acolytes had a more sane and rational worldview than these people.

  8. Covid testing sites are nothing more than “case” manufacturing centers. Government, media and corporate nonsense. Have to keep churning out “cases” to keep the shackles in place and the money flowing. A crime against humanity.

  9. Looks like they’re trying to make Dr. Simone Gold into a ‘domestic terrorist’ because she was at the Capitol and the police allowed her to briefly walk in along with others.

    https://remnantnewspaper.com/web/index.php/headline-news-around-the-world/item/5243-leading-covid-skeptic-dr-gold-arrested-for-capitol-riot

    ‘show the Deep State works folks… Keep all these stories in mind the next time THE MEDIA (TM) start telling you about what this or that guy did in Syria or Timbuktu somewhere and that’s why we needs to sanction them and send in the drones or support ?A?n?t?i?f?a? freedom fighters on the ground.

  10. I am mostly surprised by the sometimes huge negative responses to those kind of policies in the net, in every youtube video, in every website like this one, etc. There necessarily must be an army of appalled individuals who realize what is going on here. But there is a deep schism that goes from realizing reality to act consequently.

    Today I experienced it when, in a burst of rage, I contacted the main political party in the opposition of my country, as they´re are the ones ruling the area of Spain where I live, after finding out that the psychos in charge will oblige runners to go fully masked while running, or while practicing whatever sport you want to practice, in a move that shows total disregard for public health. I also contacted the police, again after finding out that a person I know was fined when he was absolutely alone in the middle of nowhere, fishing by himself, by a rural police who found him by surprise…

    The member of the political party absolutely agreed with me in every word I said. And I said waaaayy too many. It was a volcano. And all she could do was admitting that I was right, and confessing that she´s living a nightmare, as she was not allowed in the nursing home their parents live in for…..a year. BUT she will do nothing about it, because she is loyal to the party, and all her life revolves around a certain social image.

    And the policewoman heard me respectfully, and showed evident signs of being absolutely ashamed of what they are doing, which is basically being the hammer that secures the global dictatorship. BUT the movement “Police for truth”, which totally supports our views, is like a family club, with only a few dozens of members in the whole country, as almost no one wants to be the weirdo.

    The kind of catalyst that would ignite those millions of people´s fire will have to be something so out of the usual that we don´t even conceive it right now. Massive awakening will take something borderline miraculous, or at least totally unexpected. It won´t be something in the game right now. No medicine, vaccine, scandal, political movement, no global manifestation, no confession. If it happens, it is out of our scope right now. As out as the internet in 1980.

  11. If the number of PCR cycles hasn’t been previously disclosed (it’s NOT on the test results I’ve seen from two different states), it won’t be widely known when the cycle threshold is reduced–reducing cases–and voila, pandemic has been defeated (or the corner turned) by the heroic action of the Bidet administration.

  12. **”Nearing 400k excess deaths. Turns out Covid was a monster.”**

    When counting influenza, pneumonia, and coronavirus collectively, noting the 40% succumbing in nursing homes, and the 99.8% survival under age 75–it’s a very selective monster. Panic porn succeeded in causing fear in much of the public–for ends having nothing to do with public health.

  13. “…and voila, pandemic has been defeated (or the corner turned) by the heroic action of the Bidet administration.”

    Part of the plan all along, I think. The general low-info public who get most of their info from mainstream media and politicians seem largely ignorant of PCR test issues, so it will be easy to dupe them now into thinking Biden’s installation and “plan” somehow worked wonders when “cases” start to decrease (aside from natural decrease of all flu-like/respiratory illness once weather starts to warm up in early spring). Insane that some, like the Kansas indicated above, have been doing as much as 42 test cycles all along, which basically renders the results useless.

  14. Here are the current MN influenza stats:

    https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/flu/stats/flustats02.pdf

    The chart on page 7 is especially striking. Every other year shows a relatively flat starting period, followed by a slow upward trend punctuated by spikes before eventually leveling off. 2020-2021 is just downward, to practically nothing in the middle of what is historically the height of flu season.

    Health officials of course attribute this to “masking and social distancing” which means that they will try to keep those around even if COVID-19 is somehow completely eliminated.

  15. Rudolph: You say: “Health officials of course attribute this (the “dissapearence” of flu) to “masking and social distancing”.

    As the internet meme says: “We erased flu because we have been responsible and used masks. We don´t erase Covid because we haven´t been responsible and did not use masks”…

  16. It occurred to me we should simply tell people to behave as we do children in teaching them to “be safe” from predators: STAY AWAY FROM EVERYONE. Everyone is dangerous. If they get close, scream and run away. Even people to who might come to visit you at home. EVERYONE is a threat and treat them as such. No interaction, no touching, nothing. Scream and run away.

  17. Briggs,

    What are overall mortality rates from 2020 to 2019 and 2018, U. S. and worldwide? What’s the total death increase year over year from 2018 to 2019 to 2020?

    Thanks,

    C. B.

  18. So, what happened to the spike we were gonna see from the “super spreader” event at the Capitol? Seems like it’s similar so far to the spike from the Sturgis motorcycle rally.
    Other than the National Guards that ended up infecting each other, I haven’t seen any reports of an outbreak.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.