Statistics

As Predicted, Vexxine Efficacy Shrinks Once Out Of The Hands Of Pharmaceuticals

Part The First: Observations

How good is the Pfizer vex in practice? Ask them—or any Expert or ruler—and they will say…well, let’s not ask them what they would say. It would only encourage them to tell more “noble” lies.

We can recall back to last December, when the first safety and efficacy data was released by the FDA for the Pfizer vex based on their (Pfizer’s) controlled trials. They were touting numbers like 95% for efficacy. Which sounds terrific. But I said this about that huge effect:

As I’ve said before, trial numbers in medical experiments always look better than real-life numbers, and I’d bet good money these numbers will shrink. I have no idea by how much. I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if in real life it was much north of 50%.

Let’s see if we can count that prediction as a victory.

Enter the paper “Six Month Safety and Efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine” by Stephen J Thomas and a legion of others.

They looked at about 44 thousand 16+ year olds, plus another 2 thousand 12-15 year olds. Two doses for half, and a placebo for the other half, with shots 21 days apart. And they were all looked at up through 6 months afterward for outcomes like infections and side effects, including death.

At the end, 21,926 were in the vex group and 21,921 in the placebo: 15 died in the vex group, and 14 in the placebo group, by of all sorts of causes. Only 1 died in the vex group of “COVID-19 Pneumonia”, a fair thing to track because, like flu, it’s not the disease that gets you most often, it’s the resulting pneumonia. And 2 died of the coronadoom in the placebo group.

They also tracked infections, but these are of almost no interest. Not to us, dear reader, especially since (1) vaccines can’t stop you from being infected, and (b) everybody is going to get this thing eventually, and for most it’s nothing to sweat over, if it’s even noticed. So we’ll look at the times when people should sweat, which is to say, at deaths.

Overall, that’s 1/21926 = 0.000046 in the vex groups versus 2/21921 = 0.000091, for a grand savings of 0.000046. Or an actual difference of 0.0046%.

That’s what the vex does, crudely. Buys 0.0046% improvement in deaths due to the doom.

Because it sounds better, they would report the relative improvement, which is 1 – (1/21926) / (2/21921) = 0.5, or–ta da!—50%.

I humbly accept your thanks of an accurate prediction.

Part The Second: Projections

Now theses numbers are absolute in the sense they happened to these 44 thousand people, assuming all the measurements were accurate. The rates of improvement, given this clean measurement assumption, are certain.

But not if we apply them to new people. Then there is uncertainty. We can, if we like, though it’s not necessary, quantify that uncertainty. Let’s do so, for fun.

First recall all models only say what they are told to say. Here is what we are telling our model to say.

We’ve discussed it dozens of times before, so I’ll just state that given just the assumption we have no idea how many “successes” (deaths) or “failures” (surviving; hey, we’re on the pharmaceuticals side here) there will be in a new group of people, other than it can be any number between 0 and the total, then our predictive probability is a beta-binomial.

There is another tacit assumption which is crucial. It is that this new batch of people be like the old batch of 44,000 in a causal sense. That is, the new group must share the same causal connections between the bug, vex, disease and death as the old one; this includes the time frame, which is 6 months. Probability in the predictive way isn’t magic like in classical stats: probability for us has no power. Cause does. We don’t know all the causes, so we use probability.

All right, what future group is like the past group causally?

I don’t know.

The study looked at people in Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Germany, and Turkey. Maybe we can apply our model to Americans in the coming six months. I’m not sure. American coronadoom medicine has been crappier, judged by outcomes, compared to other parts of the world.

And then the coming six months starts when there is a decrease in death because of other causes, and which will see a rise in new deaths because of late fall.

Plus, this study only looked at the Pfizer jab, and in the USA there are other options.

Are all these differences important? Don’t know. Let’s push on.

According to the CDC, as of 1 October, at 10 of the clock, 184,469,107 Americans ages 12+ were “fully” vexxed, which, they say, was 65.1% of all people in this age group. That leaves 98,893,577 un-“fully” vexxed. Some of these folks had one shot of the two-shot vexxes. In which group to put them? Don’t know. How about the un-“fully” vexxed? Some 214 thousand have at least one shot.

Here’s the first prediction:

If this model’s premises align with Reality, then in the next size months about the same number of “fully” vexxed as un-“fully” vexxed will die. Call it about 10,000 in each group, with a fairly large window. But also recall the number of “fully” vexxed to un-“fully” vexxed is just under two to one.

Right away we see this is way off. Week before last had about 5,000 doom deaths, says the CDC, with numbers dropping. Still, twenty thousand seems like a pretty bad undercount for six months out. 26 weeks at 5k per week is 130 thousand, but again that 5K is dropping per week. Recall last October-March saw about 352 thousand die from the doom.

So maybe a good window is 50 – 300 thousand. Don’t forget, back in olden days, about 200 thousand died every year of flu+pneumonia, mostly in these coming six months, even with vexxines. Since few are dying of flu anymore, that window is a good guess.

In any case, it’s clear with these assumptions that our model is likely off by an order of magnitude. Here’s the official weekly deaths:

On the other hand, if deaths do keep dropping, then we’ll be closer. However, they’ll still pick up again in late fall, as sure as Congresspersons accept bribes.

This means, probably, that these other countries are not like the US in at least one causal sense. Could be the quality of care (widely variable), or the physical state of the people (lousy, drugged up; have you seen our many, many drive-up prescription pick-up windows?).

Let’s try this. Let’s assume the same vex/placebo–1/2 ratio but up the dead bodies in each group to reach American levels. We have to do this guessing because the CDC isn’t giving us actual numbers to use. Busy people, I guess. Here’s 10 dead in the vex group, and 20 in the placebo: we assume these are in the old data.

This brings us in line with about 200 thousand dead in 6 months. Also notice that more vexxed will die than unvexxed. But proportionally more unvexxed will die.

This assumption gives 10/22085 = 0.00045 dead in the vex group, and 20/22080 = 0.00091 in the unvexxed. I mean, this assumes we would have seen this number if the same experiment by our authors was done in the USA.

That’s maybe not so bad as far as assumptions go. The population fatality rate for 85+ in the last two years was 0.028; for for 75-84 was 0.01; for 65-74 was 0.0045; for 55-64 was 0.002; for 45-54 was 0.00084; for 35-44 was 0.0003. And that’s enough, because so few died under 35.

You can see that these numbers aren’t far off from our imagined experiment.

There’s too many ifs and buts for this model to be taken seriously. It does show how hard it is to do these kinds of things. Still, it has some aspects that might turn out interesting.

The one prediction that will likely hold is that more vexxed than unvexxed will die in the next 6 months. Mostly because this group far outnumbers the unvexxed, and because the vex isn’t that great.

Check back again in 6 months and see how we did.

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Categories: Statistics

63 replies »

  1. Morning Briggs.

    So, I am wondering if there’s an unwarranted assumption of a linear system by the vex promoters. Even if we go with relative-risk, how can we say it scales with sample size? That is, would it also be 50% for a sample size of 4M people?

    For counter example, perhaps RR decreases with sample size.

    Need a plot of RR v. sample size.

  2. What is the definition of unvexxed?

    Those that have not had any doses?
    Those that have not had any doses + Those that only had one dose?
    Those that have not had any doses + Those that only had one dose + Those that have had 2 doses but less than 14 days since?
    Those that have not had any doses + Those that only had one dose + Those that have had 2 doses + Those that have had a booster less than 14 days since?

    By the deep winter will the unboosted become the unvexxed?

    Also what is the statistical definition (quantification) of the “rare” and “very rare” descriptors that are prepended to every discussion of vaccine adverse effects.

    The filters being applied to the data are diabolical. They will produce the statistics they want you to see.

    Best thing to do is to telephone the CDC and ask them the numbers that will be reported this winter – they already know, and it’s not because they have a crystal ball …

  3. Robin: “The Science” forbids using numbers, only terms like “most”, “many”, “may”, etc. One can be flogged for use of numbers.

    “We can recall back to last December, when the first safety and efficacy data was released by the FDA for the Pfizer vex based on their (Pfizer’s) controlled trials.” THEY LIED. That’s what greedy government supported crap labs do. Get over it. Go eat cake.

    Fauci says illegals are not causing the problem. He says the unvexxed are. Are the illegals vexxed? NO. Therefore, they ARE causing the problem and Fauci verified this.

  4. Note that the cutoff of the study was March 13, 2021. In particular that means that there is no data in the study whatsoever about effectiveness of the vaccine against the “delta” variant, even though that variant has repeatedly been used to argue for mass vaccination.

    In the efficacy section cases for the vaccinated are only listed for those which happened at least 7 days after the second shot. No restrictions were placed on the placebo group. But when the study started no one was vaccinated, meaning that there was nearly a full month of the study (21 days between shots + 7 days after shot 2) where it was impossible for the vaccinated group to develop “cases” but the placebo group could.

    In December 2020 both groups were told which group they belonged to and the placebo group was given the option of vaccinating. So it was only a double blind trial for the first three months, and keep in mind for a month of that they weren’t counting cases for the vaccinated.

  5. Even the MSM is starting to notice:

    https://nationalpost.com/news/world/study-suggests-pfizer-biontech-antibodies-disappear-in-many-by-seven-months

    “Our study shows vaccination with the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine induces high levels of neutralizing antibodies against the original vaccine strain, but these levels drop by nearly 10-fold by seven months” after the initial dose, Bali Pulendran of Stanford University and Mehul Suthar of Emory University said by email.

  6. ***—And 2 died of the coronadoom in the placebo group.—***

    Another *noble lie*…???

    Allowing people to believe they are *vaccinated* when they are not…?

    Of course *no one is really vaccinated* against the doom…

    Seems to me the placebo group are the lucky ones who dodged a vex bullet…

    AND

    ***—Week before last had about 5,000 doom deaths, says the CDC,—***

    Versus how many *flu deaths*…?

    I know, I know, the CDC would *never* allow flu deaths & doom deaths to be lumped together, right…??

  7. It was clear to everyone not part of the Covid Cult and in thrall to Big Pharma that the latter’s claims of 95% efficacy (especially since they conveniently fail to inform people about relative vs. absolute risk reduction) were nonsense from the start. And despite mounting evidence of vax failure, people still bury their heads in the sand and just repeat the mantra, “Safe and effective, safe and effective,” ad nauseam, hoping that will make it so.

    At this point, I don’t think any amount of contrary evidence and data will change things. The Regime is so owned by Big Pharma and wedded to the vaxes that they just don’t care how useless or dangerous they are, or how many more people are injured or killed by them.

  8. I looked at that “Symptoms, signs, and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified.” column again… Still at 3600 / wk…

    Suddenly people are dying in a different category. (Suddenly starting in December 2020…)

  9. I want to point out that, should the powers that be widely accept that the vexxines are ineffective, it will be used as an excuse to demand much tighter lockdowns. So, as the saying goes, be careful what you wish for (widespread acknowledgement that the vexxines are ineffective), you might get it.

  10. I have to agree with RMR – the elephant in the room is that society has gone bonkers because of severe ignorance about relative risk, along with extreme shortsightedness about visible versus hidden costs. I have no illusion that much of anything has been learned, and history might just repeat.

    Switching gears, assume I have two dice, each with 22000 sides. I roll each one 22000 times and count the number of times the face marked “1” came up. I get one “1” for the first die and I get two “1”s for the second die. Is that a reasonable analogy for the results of this study?

  11. Briggs,

    Please stop telling people that getting Covid is nothing to sweat for. Cousin Bill of age 63 was not so lucky. He was a farm animal vet. And a beloved family man.

    Two Tuesdays ago, John came home from UW-Madison to look after Bill because his sister and stay-at-home mom have not been vaccinated. On last Tuesday morning, he was ready to serve Dad breakfast but his knock on the door was met with silence. Mom and Sister both tested positive and are now under quarantine. So no funeral arrangements yet.

    People actually believe, without a doubt, they would be OK if they are infected. Bill was one of them.

    Their life has been changed. The sadness and anger.

    No one won. Everyone lost.

  12. “…should the powers that be widely accept that the vexxines are ineffective, it will be used as an excuse to demand much tighter lockdowns…”

    Possibly, but it could also be a prelude to finally admitting – as some places have already done (Singapore, Norway, Denmark, Croatia, that I can recall off the top of my head – granted, all relatively small countries) – that Covid is simply something that must be lived with like other endemic viruses with very low IFR (common cold, ordinary flu, etc.), and that extreme restrictions and disruptions to life simply can’t go on forever before society bursts at the seems (tbh, I’m surprised more people haven’t lost it altogether and gone “postal” over everything that’s been done to them for the last 19 months).

    Then again, I’ve long since given up expecting political leaders to do anything sane and reasonable.

  13. Briggs,

    Let’s see if we can count that prediction as a victory.

    The covid-19 vaccine efficacy gets either better or worse. 50% chance assuming ignorance. Congratulations. Thanks for the laughs. I am always thankful, you know this already. I get an annual flu shot and it seems only intuitive to expect the immunity to wane.

    That’s what the vex does, crudely. Buys 0.0046% improvement in deaths due to the doom.

    Let’s be clear that the above is not what the vaccine efficacy that the report is selling; see below.


    “Among 42,094 evaluable ?12-year-olds without evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, 77 COVID-19 cases with onset ?7 days post-dose 2 were observed through the data cut-off (March 13, 2021) among vaccine recipients and 850 among placebo recipients, corresponding to 91.3% VE (95% CI [89.0-93.2];

    Of 31 cases of severe, FDA-defined COVID-19,12 with onset post-dose 1, 30 occurred in placebo recipients, corresponding to 96.7% VE (95% CI 80.3-99.9) against severe COVID-19 (Fig. 2, Table S6).”

    Oh, Spartacus of Cherry picking, a normal likelihood is not appropriate for modeling the number of deaths.

  14. And now, this:

    https://kamal-mokeddem.medium.com/?p=2e26ec28de3f

    “The first thing I wanted to look into was the theory that Myocarditis cases could be explained by an errant vaccination where the needle hits a blood vessel. This should be an independent event occuring with equal likelihood in dose 1 or dose 2 of a series. This is easily disproven as happening far more often in dose 2 of either the Moderna or Pfizer vaccines. That leads to a concern that there may be a dose dependent relationship between something in the vaccines and adverse reactions.”

  15. Uh, Doc?

    I see you spotted a few confirmatory trees in this paper, but there’s a entire forest of questionables there that might warrant a second look. For example, the study was so multi-national that cases in South Africa get a highly visible mention, but only those willing to decode the paper itself discover that 99.9999999999% or nearly so of the subjects were American. More interestingly, they found the vaccine so effective they unblinded almost from the beginning – and I did not on one pass through the paper see how they could pretend their results came from comparing events affecting roughly equal numbers of vaccinated and non-vaccinated subjects.

    Bottom line? I’d bet these results would not stand up to careful scrutiny.

  16. Please stop telling people that getting Covid is nothing to sweat for.

    Well all the same is true for car collisions, heart attacks, pneumonia, H1N1, SARS the original etc.

    So have you been panicking and locking down and masking and refusing to shake hands with everyone your entire life?

    No?

    Then this, like those, is nothing to sweat for.

    The only reason you are is because the government TeeVee people ordered you to.

    Plenty of Cousin Bills are dying of something or the other all the time. It’s sad, but… sorry, the world doesn’t need to go full retard for Cousin Bill. Please accept my condolences.

  17. And, as usual with these anecdotes, we’re told nothing about the deceased’s overall health and fitness, possible underlying conditions, what course of treatment protocols he followed after testing positive with symptoms, etc.

    We’re just supposed to take it as axiomatic that – despite clear evidence of vax failure worldwide demonstrating that they neither prevent infection nor serious illness therefrom – “Cousin Bill” would certainly still be alive had he just been jabbed. Simply not enough info to make that assumption (such a counterfactual can never be proven anyway, but knowing what we know about the jabs, it’s by no means certain he would not have gotten sick from Covid and died even had he been jabbed – especially if it was months ago, given the rapidly diminishing protection after a few months).

  18. Indeed Crew – we could have given out govt subsidized Vitamin C, D, Zinc, and Ivermectin (perhaps Quercetin too) to everyone for free from the start with far less total cost than has resulted to society from lockdowns, business and school closures, loss of jobs, endless testing and vax regimes (paid for by govt), multi-trillion dollar checks written like candy from Congress, inflation, etc.

  19. Indeed Crew – we could have given out govt subsidized Vitamin C, D, Zinc, and Ivermectin (perhaps Quercetin too) to everyone for free from the start with far less total cost than has resulted to society from lockdowns, business and school closures, loss of jobs, endless testing and vax regimes (paid for by govt), multi-trillion dollar checks written like candy from Congress, inflation, etc.

  20. JH: “Briggs, Please stop telling people that getting Covid is nothing to sweat for. Cousin Bill of age 63 was not so lucky. He was a farm animal vet. And a beloved family man.”

    JH, Please stop telling people that getting vaxe’d is nothing to sweat for. Jessica Wilson of age 37 was not so lucky. She was perfectly healthy, and a beloved wife and mother of two young daughters who was pressured into taking the v’axe, against her will, and died of COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia (VITT).

    Now, the medical-mass-murdering ghouls will say, we have to kill a few people so that we can save many more! Really? How many are you willing to kill, and how many do you expect to save? Any idea? Here’s an article looking at the VAERS data showing:

    “As of early September, there have been 14,506 deaths reported to VAERS for COVID-19 vaccines, compared to 8,673 for the preceding 30 years for all other vaccines. That is already more than 50 times the annual average — and we still have four months left to go until the end of the year.”

    At the very least one would hope this staggering jump in reported deaths, as well as many other adverse reactions, would bring the crazed Covid Cultists to their senses, if they were at all concerned with health. At the very least one might expect it would stop the mad rush to force everyone to submit to sinister medical experimentation. But NO! — FULL SPEED AHEAD — SAFE AND EFFECTIVE SAFE AND EFFECTIVE TAKE YOUR JABS YOU HORRIBLE WHITE SUPREMACIST CONSPIRACY THEORIST MONSTERS TAKE YOUR JABS AND DIE!!!!

    Because we love you.

  21. interesting that the table S4 from the medrxiv version (cause of death) does not appear in the NEJM version.

  22. A cursory search off the internet for papers on Vitamin D3 and disease burden shows that credible papers have been written for a long time claiming that a large reduction in medical costs and deaths is possible …

    Of course, eventually, everyone dies, but perhaps they don’t need to die of diseases that could be avoided with inexpensive supplements. (I have heard Ivor Cummins claim that Fauci is on record as taking 4,000 IUs of D3 daily as well as Vitamin C. Probably also takes Zinc.)

  23. The latest Project Veritas video is here!

    This time they have Pfizer guys talking!

    https://youtu.be/On5RYFbcxWY

    This is not going to be a good time for all them fak-ckeckas…. No wonder YouTube is desperate to blanket ban all vexxine videos ever.

  24. Crew: Yes, Fauci himself verified his D3 dosage in one of the leaked emails. He actually takes 6000 IU per day.

    I remembered reading it in the big email release months months ago, but didn’t have the exact date and page number of the giant file to hand. Here’s a site I found quickly that has a screenshot of the email, from 15 Sept. 2020 (can’t vouch for the rest of the site, never heard of it): https://vitamindwiki.com/Dr.+Fauci+takes+6%2C000+IU+of+Vitamin+D+daily+%E2%80%93+Sept+2020

    Not sure about vitamin C, but in this January 2016 Washingtonian article he endorsed taking 1000mg per day: https://www.washingtonian.com/2016/01/15/how-to-avoid-getting-sick-when-youre-around-people-all-day/

    And yet, when Covid began, he poo-poo’d both. Typical of the man; a duplicitous scumbag. Of course, that Washingtonian article was a year and 5 days before Trump was inaugurated, so I assume The Science(TM) just changed around Nov 8, 2016. 😉

  25. Misspoke: Not “leaked” Fauci emails. They were released by the government itself pursuant to FOIA request.

  26. I don’t know what its like in America but here in Wuhan Dan Andrews land serology antibody test numbers have not been mentioned in nearly the two years of this “pandemic.”

    From my limited understanding you need these numbers to understand the silent spread of virus in the population.

    I sent a text to the appropriate authority and a week later they explained it wasn’t in their wheelhouse and would send my request to the correct body.

    Three months later still waiting.

    What are they hiding?

  27. “Mom and Sister both tested positive and are now under quarantine. So no funeral arrangements yet.”

    PCR? What was the cT? How do you know that what “Cousin Bill” died of was Covid? Did he have any co-morbidities?

    Was an autopsy performed?

  28. Oh cool, didn’t know Quercetin was in some foods and not just a supplement dealy. On that list, I drink loads of tea, and usually use kale in a daily smoothie (with banana, blackberries, and Ashwaganda root powder mixed with it in my NutribulletRx). I wonder how much is in each though? I’ve just been taking an 800mg supplement (which also has some zinc it – though I also take a 50mg Zinc supplement, along with D (5000 IU) & C (1000mg) as well.

    Hope I’m not getting too much Quercetin? I drink about 5-6 cups of tea a day – some black, some green depending on time of day. Wish that site said what amount is typically in tea or kale.

    I bought some Ivermectin from Amazon – no need to go to Equine Supply store! Surprised Amazon still lists it actually (though the price has gone up a lot in the last 6 months). Only keeping some on hand in event of emergency, not using as an everyday (or even occasional) thing (unlike a certain well-known internet personage who seems to down a couple shot glasses of it a day). If it was the actual Ivermectin pills intended for human consumption you can get from a pharmacy, I might take a small regular prophylactic dose, but despite testimony of its safety if used in right dosage, I’m still a bit hesitant using the Ivermectin technically produced for equine use (hence, only for emergency last resort for me if I ever get the plague and a doc won’t prescribe the regular human Ivermectin pills).

  29. Dennis: “but despite testimony of its safety if used in right dosage, I’m still a bit hesitant using the Ivermectin technically produced for equine use.”

    As long as it is only Ivermectin without any other wormers in there. Honestly, equine use: you have no idea how much horse people love their horses.

  30. Yeah, there are some on Amazon that have some other dewormer ingredient too, so steered clear of those (probably another thing causing problems, with some people using the mixed version, then having to call poison control or something, and media running with, “see Ivermectin is dangerous and doesn’t work”)

    “…you have no idea how much horse people love their horses.” – Dude, I’m from Kentucky 🙂

  31. @Hagfish: ” … COVID-19 Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia (VITT) ….”

    Actually it’s correct identification is: NOVEL Vaccine-Induced Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia (VITT).

    It didn’t exist until these vaccines were released, and the UK’s NICE just released a treatment protocol for it. Of course they have described it as “very rare” (so rare that they need to release a national medical protocol for it).

    I’ve challenged other scientists/statisticians to define or quantify “rare” and “very rare” in statistical terms. To date no one has taken the challenge. But these same persons are quite happy to blithely toss it into any conversation relating to adverse events.

    I have come to view scientific ethics within the pharmaceutical industry to parallel those of the tobacco industry in it’s heyday. In my view they are both in the same business; pushing drugs.

    @JH: Nice try but you’re speaking below (way below) the level of this audience. You’d get better results speaking to to a Jerry Springer fan club, maybe.

  32. First and most importantly, thank you for caring. The main reason I am responding to your comments.

    My anecdote is intended to make Briggs to think over what he says and to caution against certain behaviors. An example to demonstrate “no sweat” could go wrong, not badly but deadly. (Just like, in mathematics, a counterexample disproves a conjecture.)

    Robin, who is Jerry Springer? I don’t he is, but I know enough why you make the comments. This is fun, isn’t it.

  33. Robin,

    I just checked who Jerry Springer is. Based on your comments to me, you would be a perfect audience or guest for the show.

  34. brad tittle and Briggs

    The category “Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified (R00-R99)” has been around since at least 2014.

    It’s like the 3 to 6 weeks where #deaths have to catch up, only for this category it goes about about a half a year before the category levels out about 700-900

  35. Dear Briggs,

    One thing I think your prediction is missing is that Fauci has recently begun regarding only those having had their COVID booster shot as “fully vaccinated”.

    Now in American data this whole time, the “vaccinated” are those persons who have gotten a second dose at least 14 days ago. The 14 day interval is very significant, because it’s been shown that in about a 2 week window after inoculation, vaccine efficacy is actually negative. After that, the body responds with mass production of COVID antibodies, and then it’s pretty effective at, well, mitigating COVID symptoms, provided that it’s not a different strain of COVID than that for which the mRNA spike proteins produces antibodies.

    SO up until recently, IF you were fully “vaccinated” (that’s at least 14 days after your second dose of either Moderna of Pfizer; at least 14 days after a dose of Johnson & Johnson’s inoculant), for purposes of American data, congratulations, you are “vaccinated”. All others are “unvaccinated”.

    What’s happening now is the definition of “vaccinated” for purposes of data in the United States is “vaccinated” are persons who have gotten both doses AND a booster. Of course this change of terms distinguishing “vaccinated” from “unvaccinated” in the United States’ data is going to drive the count of “vaccinated” way way down. This is happening just in time for the winter surge, whereupon fearmongering will recommence with the PANDEMIC OF THE UNVACCINATED, as only those having been fully vexxed PLUS booster shot will be counted as “vaccinated”.

    Having shifted the goal posts thus, in the United States it will be touted quite misleadingly in the inevitable winter surge that by and large, the “unvaccinated” are dying with COVID. I’m calling it.

  36. Ray: Has that Fauci change of definition of “vaccinated” or “fully vaccinated” (I’ve seen similar elsewhere- I think Israel also has only started calling people with 3rd jab “fully vaccinated”), also been reflected in official CDC and other numbers (like state health departments), or is this only some off-the cuff talk typical of Fraudci, that he’ll then be forced to walk back?. If it is an official change in how official “cases” and deaths are counted, then you’re right, this is just some verbal slight of hand designed to feed fearmongering claims this is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” by artificially shrinking the numbers of “vaccinated.”

    (And this has been a definitional problem muddying the data all along anyway – where people jabbed once, or even twice but in the 14 day window, are called “unvaccinated” as if they are the same as those who’ve refused vaxes altogether).

    But I’ve heard from a number of people who took the jabs that they are not going to get the boosters (and they feel they were lied to all along – “just get vaccinated and things go back to normal” and instead some are still being told they have to wear masks at work, get another jab 4-6 months after they just had one, even sometimes still get tested without symptoms despite having been jabbed. Hopefully more people are waking up. And it’s going to be a big problem for the govt if they start going all-in on the “not truly vaxed unless you get a booster” angle (and why stop at 1 booster? Will boosters be required indefinitely every 6 months now?), and more people than refused the jabs initially start refusing boosters this time around.

  37. Dennis:

    American data throughout the “pandemic” has been awful and a lot of this has to do with messing with terms used.

    UK and Israel by comparison have much clearer data, differentiating between persons flat out unvaccinated, vs. one dose vs. two dose vs. two doses + booster. In the United States it’s a black and white “vaccinated” vs. “unvaccinated” where they lump in all sorts of people INCLUDED vaccinated persons who get the ‘rona within that 14 day window after their second shot when they’re more likely to get COVID (remember, in this 2 week period vaccine efficacy is NEGATIVE so you’re more likely to contract COVID BECAUSE OF the inoculant!!) The audacity of these people to say someone who got “fully vaccinated”, gets COVID a week later, is hospitalized–to call this individual “UNVACCINATED” in how they’re using their terms is just awful.

    So why wouldn’t they up the antes and shift goal posts with marking as “unvaccinated” ALL who haven’t yet had a booster, and then in 6 months or whenever a second booster is rolled out, if you’re not “up to date on your shots”, sorry, you’re unvaccinated now!? That’s totally how they’re going to play this. And if people keep buying it, they’re going to be more and more pissed by the day with everyone who doesn’t go along with the CDC/FDA recommendations. We’re already seeing segregation for vaccinated and unvaccinated, and in many places the unvaccinated are not treated so nicely. They’re regarded as a plague on society and a cause of this crap going on and on. OF COURSE it isn’t our fault. OF COURSE if you can get sick in spite of your COVID inoculation (I refuse to call these vaccines. Vaccines prevent the disease and stop transmission. They do not merely mitigate symptoms), the inoculation doesn’t work and you’re a fool if you think its efficacy is contingent on others having the “vaccine” too. That’s not how vaccines work.

    I think these inoculants are a money making scam. And they keep making money if there are to be boosters every several months. And here’s the thing. With vaccine efficacy waning because vaccine induced antibodies are SPECIFIC TO a certain strain of COVID, and a virus mutates, then you need a booster to deal with the new strain. And on and on it goes, because COVID is going to be with us forever. If you won’t let your immune system do its work for you, you’ll be dependent on these drugs for the rest of your life. And if there are negative side effects from the shots that get you sick/killed from heart failure or whatever else, it remains true that vaccine manufacturers face NO liability so all medical expenses are on you. It is abject bullshit all around.

  38. Hagfish: “JH, Please stop telling people that getting vaxe’d is nothing to sweat for.”

    Here’s another: “Illinois family pleads with vaccine skeptics after fully vaxxed grandmother dies at 66: ‘Our worst fears came true'” https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/2021/10/4/22688445/candace-ayers-vaccine-illinois-unvaccinated-skeptics-obituary-mississippi

    Just ponder the absurdity of that headline: “Fully vaxed” mother dies (we learn in the article she had a pre-existing auto-immune disease – so vax should probably have been contra-indicated for her anyway), and they want to lay the blame on “vaccine skeptics.” It’s the fault of the unvaccinated that their “fully vaxed,” immuno-compromised mother died! The mind reels. It really is the pool skit Briggs posted above in real life: “My vax doesn’t work unless you get one too!”

    Another one: “Double Vaccinated Emmy Winner Dies of Covid-19 Two Weeks After Attending Award Ceremony with Unmasked Celebrities” https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/10/double-vaccinated-emmy-winner-dies-covid-19-two-weeks-attending-award-ceremony-unmasked-celebrities/

    Ah yes, it’s the “unmasked” who caused this double-vaxed guy to die! Because the vaccines work! Repeat after me: “Safe and effective!!!” Article claims “no underlying conditions,” but I’m not buying it for this “makeup designer/stylist” (though perhaps it’s true and he’s just another vax victim who would indeed otherwise be alive and healthy had he not been brainwashed into taking the jabs).

    Another: Very sad case of a 10-year-old, but clearly morbid obesity was a big problem here. And as usual, the parents in denial say their child was “healthy” (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/10-year-old-died-of-covid-after-teacher-made-her-be-nurse-to-sick-kids-parents-say/ar-AAP9RtY)

    More on the link between serious Covid illness or death and obesity and/or diabetes: https://www.wfae.org/health/2021-09-30/novant-says-9-of-10-children-in-covid-icus-are-overweight-but-public-health-officials-rarely-talk-about-obesity; “Patients with diabetic nephropathy or a combination of diabetes and obesity have a substantially higher risk of COVID-19 mortality, a study published in the Journal of Community Hospital Internal Medicine Perspectives reported recently.” https://www.ajmc.com/view/diabetic-nephropathy-obesity-increase-covid-19-mortality-risk-in-patients-with-type-2-diabetes

    Signs of fighting spirit among Bergoglio’s Swiss Guards: https://summit.news/2021/10/04/popes-swiss-guards-resign-over-mandatory-covid-19-vaccination/

  39. “I think these inoculants are a money making scam. And they keep making money if there are to be boosters every several months.”

    That’s exactly it. Always has been from day one. It’s a plan for a lifelong subscription to bi-annual Big Pharma vax “booster” program. Same scam they’ve been running for years with flu shots, but I guess those weren’t pulling in enough money nowadays.

  40. “First and most importantly, thank you for caring. The main reason I am responding to your comments.

    “My anecdote is intended to make Briggs to think over what he says and to caution against certain behaviors. An example to demonstrate ‘no sweat’ could go wrong, not badly but deadly.”

    So, get an autopsy already!

    If anyone has lost a loved one due to Covid-19 and a doctor failed to prescribe or administer completely safe, life-saving treatments which have been shown to be effective… Call 1-800-MAL-PRAXX.

  41. Dean or hagfish:
    FYI,
    VTT no! Dean is wrong.
    CVST:

    Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis
    Cerebral venous sinus Thrombotic with Thrombocytopenia.

    “CVS” refers to location in the brain, although similar type clots can occur elsewhere,

    Thrombotic is a word meaning having the quality or tendency to clotting (of any kind, most commonly involving ‘thickening’ of the blood.)
    Thrombocytes are ;white c ells involved in normal clotting
    The penia part means they are reduced in number on blood count, leading to a THINNING of the blood and clumping of cells due to a separate cause from the usual ‘thickening” of blood.

    This state, (which can be a reaction following heparin injection) occurred in a vanishingly small number in patients who received the vaccine in the early stages. It also occurs in the general population without a known pharmaceutical trigger. So the analysis must come down to understanding each individual case rather than thinking statistics are going to reveal cause with such tiny numbers.

    It is still as yet not determined for sure, that the clotting is in fact related to the vaccination as opposed to some other factor. Yet the decision was made to weigh the risk benefit of vaccination for those patients who are not at particularly high risk of serious illness or death due to the disease compared with the even smaller risk of receiving vaccine and having an adverse reaction. The decisions were made assuming that the cause WAS the vaccine.

    Risks of serious clotting abnormalities are far higher in medicines which are not being questioned at all.
    Risks of bleeding to death are far far higher from over the counter medicines which patients consider it within their gift, to take without a blink or a check of the correct dose, let alone adverse reactions.

  42. “Cerebral venous sinus Thrombotic Thrombocytopenia.

    Or,
    “Cerebral venous sinus Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia.”
    To be absolutely accurate.

  43. Here is Joy: “Like an oil change! It’s the same kind of reason why babies eyes turn from blue/violet to boring colours after a time. Toxins deposited in the iris.”

    She’s a laugh a minute.

  44. Yes, Philemon, with humour and laughter, context is everything
    Lack of humour is just another thing entirely
    I do believe your other name is Malcom?

  45. More clarification:
    “So the analysis must come down to understanding each individual case rather than thinking statistics are going to reveal cause with such tiny numbers.”

    “Statistics can’t prove cause” W M Briggs

    Correlation without cause is possible/commonplace.
    Cause without correlation is not.
    “You can’t have cause without correlation”. Dav

  46. Ray is getting warmer:
    vaccine induced antibodies are SPECIFIC TO a certain strain of COVID, and a virus mutates, then you need a booster to deal with the new strain.”

    Not so. There are multitudinous strains of the virus but the worst mutation recently (Delta) is still impacted by the vaccine it is just not AS highly effective.
    The virus continues to mutate but the disease itself is not now novel to patients or vaccinated individuals. This, in turn, reduces the impact of the entire population being infected in a short space of time.
    That is the aim/objective. Boosters are only going to be advised for those at the higher risk group. Younger adults may wish to receive boosters but at this point they’re not being recommended.

    It’s going to be business as usual, just as with flu.
    Only with the advent of this vaccine have people even given a fig about refusal of vaccination prior to work in a clinical setting. I’m saying if you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen. Go and work in an office, or as an actuary or perhaps teach.
    If your boss wants you to be vaccinated or you leave, that’s his call, his business. If he loses staff it’s his problem. Free markets, free choice.
    Freedom of individuals should also apply to business owners.

    What’s not criminal might be immoral or fattening but it’s a free country.
    “You’re not going to make everybody go to church on Sunday” My Dad
    For literalists:
    “Going to church”
    *metaphor for being ‘good’

  47. Joy:

    Only with the advent of a “vaccine” that uses mRNA for producing spike proteins (new technology); (toxic) lipid nanoparticles to deliver said mRNA (new technology); genetic modifications to the mRNA such as pseudouridine (new technology)–never before used in humans and never tested long term. Do you honestly wonder why people give a fig about refusal?

    You admit yourself the COVID inoculations are waning in their efficacy as you concede over time they are not as effective against different strains. Natural immunity doesn’t have this problem precisely because antibodies produced naturally (vs. vaccine induced antibodies) are general enough to adapt to novel strains.
    Are you familiar with the Israeli study that had 2.5 million patients and found that the vaccinated group was actually seven times more likely to get infected with COVID than the people who had gotten COVID naturally?

    And yet for their refusal, you think it’s OK for even persons with natural immunity to be fired from their jobs in the name of the employer’s “freedom” to do what one wants with one’s own business? You don’t think it’s a problem that such boss’ freedom encroaches on the freedom of one’s employees to make their own personal medical decisions?

    You might have a point if COVID inoculations stopped the spread, and everyone would be doing their part to end the pandemic by getting inoculated to stop the spread. But even the CDC admits these “vaccines” do not prevent transmission, so one cannot reasonably argue COVID-19 inoculation is for the safety of others.

    It is also evident that “mass vaccination” campaigns do not slow the spread. In fact, they do the opposite. These inoculations have been shown to accelerate the spread of COVID-19 all over the world.

    I find it disingenuous to argue for protection of someone’s rights when it infringes upon the rights of others. Please explain to me how an employer should be able to mandate COVID inoculation as a condition of employment and how this is reasonable and not an infringement on the rights of an employee. Is your contention that by virtue of employment, employees are to be expected to forfeit all freedoms at the behest of their employer, as they are free to work elsewhere if they do not like how the employer operates one’s business?

  48. Ray Robertson: “Please explain to me how an employer should be able to mandate COVID inoculation as a condition of employment and how this is reasonable and not an infringement on the rights of an employee. Is your contention that by virtue of employment, employees are to be expected to forfeit all freedoms at the behest of their employer, as they are free to work elsewhere if they do not like how the employer operates one’s business?”

    Welcome to the Inter-disciplinary Department of Joy Studies. Joy has peculiar views on civil rights law which have puzzled many scholars.

  49. “With vaccine efficacy waning because vaccine induced antibodies are SPECIFIC TO a certain strain of COVID, and a virus mutates, then you need a booster to deal with the new strain. And on and on it goes, because COVID is going to be with us forever.”

    The vexxine induced immune response is to the spike protein not any “strain” of Covid. The spike protein, which is cytotoxic all on its lonesome, and is actually why the bad Covid was so bad for the elderly… Um, so why are we injecting the spike protein itself into the veins of young, healthy people?

    Giving 5-11 year olds vexxines is simply wrong. If anything would stop the virus, kids’ innate or acquired immunity would. But “they” want variants and boosters

  50. Phil:

    Is it not true that spike proteins vary per different strains of this virus? I thought the point of boosters was to induce an immune response that would be effective against mutated variants which the original vex doesn’t recognize. My understanding was the fact that mass produced antibodies that don’t recognize a variant is how ADE happens.

  51. Ray You ask,
    Do you honestly wonder why people give a fig about refusal?
    After this:
    Only with the advent of a “vaccine” that uses mRNA for producing spike proteins (new technology); (toxic) lipid nanoparticles to deliver said mRNA (new technology); genetic modifications to the mRNA such as pseudouridine (new technology)–never before used in humans and never tested long term.
    You explained your personal view. It is something similar to those who fear genetically modified anything.
    It looks like begging the question though. It doesn’t explain why medical staff or care staff in small but not insignificant numbers, have adopted a militant attitude towards infection control. Generally those staff are in the lower skilled aspects of health provision. Often also those who object to any kind of vaccination due to their religious or tribal beliefs.
    I do honestly wonder why staff who are not given to neurosis, generally historically, give a fig. I would call it peer pressure of the activist variety, most of it generated on the internet and amongst political activists from the far left as well as the far right. We have never before heard of staff demonstrating that kind of opinion. For someone who is working operationally with patients that is in physical contact with them or working on wards/ in theatre, there are certain mandatory vaccines. We have flu jabs for staff at the GP surgery yearly but that was not mandatory. As far as I know it is not mandatory anywhere in the NHS. Occupational health deals separately with all the matters and confidentiality is as tight as with any other venue of health care provision.
    I see it as a measure of ignorance rather like those who refuse blood transfusion.
    My strong view is that if people would stop the antagonism which encourages the enemies of the west, they’d stop rattling the cages of the fearful to cause yet more unnecessary disruption. Let people refuse as they might but don’t encroach on business owners’ rights, is also my point.
    If healthcare is being run as a business, then the business owner, like the person cooking the cake in a bakery, has the choice, in a free country, what kind of cake they bake and similarly for staff, they choose they type of baker they want to work for.
    Freedom cuts both ways. It’s your right to refuse, other’s right to respond (within the law). There’s no place for political activism in the clinical setting.
    I’m strongly suspecting that in this country, given the demographic of staff who ar in the refusing group, it is more to do with employing foreigners of other cultural backgrounds. The kinds which the left and liberals told us we couldn’t do without. Just like lorry drivers and fruit pickers, abattoir workers, the British public have been told for years we need these people! If that lands some people here in the same category that’s a bit unfortunate, it’s how I see it.

  52. You admit yourself the COVID inoculations are waning in their efficacy as you concede over time they are not as effective against different strains. Natural immunity doesn’t have this problem precisely because antibodies produced naturally (vs. vaccine induced antibodies) are general enough to adapt to novel strains.

    There, you illustrate my point:
    Influenza vaccination is a yearly injection. Yet we have never seen anybody up in arms about it! Pun intended. Everything is read as a point of suspicion and it looks like more confirmation bas on part of the conspirators.
    The idea/aim/objective is to render the virus endemic as soon as is possible.
    Should there ever b e a vaccine which prevents reinfection it would surely trump the old vaccine. This is medical science in action. It is also a good thing that there are numerous options for vaccines, competition, if it were allowed unfettered, is at play in coming up with solutions to what is really an infection control problem due to inherently limited healthcare provision. The latter is another fact of life which is lost on the militant left.
    The aim is to save lives and to prevent any kind of breakdown of they system that would give advantage to our enemies. It seems that the enemy is within though, and some people just don’t have a cool head or a good head for crisis.

  53. Ray,
    And yet for their refusal, you think it’s OK for even persons with natural immunity to be fired from their jobs in the name of the employer’s “freedom” to do what one wants with one’s own business? You don’t think it’s a problem that such boss’ freedom encroaches on the freedom of one’s employees to make their own personal medical decisions?
    No, it’s not okay because that’s not what I said.
    Natural immunity, *there’s no such thing by the way, since nobody is ‘immune’ in the way many skeptics seem to think.
    Yet in GENUINE healthcare settings, there is rationality in how immune status is assessed. For example, there is a test for TB status by use of the mantoux test. There are now antibody tests and scientists are working while all this Argie barge is going on, at improving tests and vaccines of all kinds.
    I never commented on the wonders of natural immunity by comparison with that conferred by the vaccine.
    There is also a choice of which type of vaccination people receive. The US has gone its own way on that. Here, there are multiple options and patients who really have a preference can adjust their appointment accordingly.
    As said n the past, there is so much skull digger on part of many interested parties that to load this all on the side providing solutions based on years of experience in the field, is very skewed. In Europe, the French prime minister has had a hissy fit, along with a few other countries, who then had to recant, based on a phoney claim of ‘safety’ but not because they care about lives saved. They care about how their voters will think about them and that the infernal British have left the EU. They cared so much about the Australians! Apparently, that they refused to export the ‘terrible AZ vaccine’ to them, which they didn’t want for their own people.
    All of this is going on at the same time as science is progressing in the background and I simply have more faith in our own scientists and statisticians than many over there seem to have, in the US. Can’t say I blame you for some of it. The messaging and management has been appalling.

  54. I also admit that it is early days in the science so it’s clearly very early days for employment law to catch up.
    Worth noting, that Trump’s approach, showed that in healthcare, things are just different and such political ideals can also cost lives and cause chaos.
    Due to pressure from a lack of testing (perceived and real, in different measure) Trump caved and allowed the packaging of all kinds of “tests” to be given permission for sale as long as the packaging declared the fact.
    That was clearly wrong at the time.
    “No test” is always better than a bad test which is perceived as useful.
    Had Trump stuck to his guns, there would have ben outrage about that, too, as there was here, by media and the usual complainers.
    Running a healthcare outfit as a business is inherently fraught with contradiction and conflict of interest.
    Running a healthcare system from government down is also fraught with inherent conflict of interest and…
    Perfect healthcare costs more than anybody is prepared to pay, anywhere.

  55. Ray: “Is it not true that spike proteins vary per different strains of this virus? I thought the point of boosters was to induce an immune response that would be effective against mutated variants which the original vex doesn’t recognize. My understanding was the fact that mass produced antibodies that don’t recognize a variant is how ADE happens.”

    Yes, the spike protein in coronavirus escapes the vexxines, because it mutates at a high rate, fortunately to be less virulent because coronavirus.

    One problem with the “boosters” is that they are not updated “to induce an immune response that would be effective against mutated variants which the original vex doesn’t recognize.” Another problem is that, even if they were, OAS might come into play. Which would be bad. The only antibodies induced by the vexxines are against the spike protein. And after four months, they’re going, going, gone.

    So, essentially, the vexxines are injections, directly into the bloodstream, of the very spike protein that caused damage to people who did not have healthy immune systems.

    “My understanding was the fact that mass produced antibodies that don’t recognize a variant is how ADE happens.”

    The vexxines are for the original spike protein only. That could cause ADE in the vexxinated.

    Hoping not.

    But then, there are way too many adverse events that look like the vexxines are suppressing the immune system in otherwise healthy people.

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