Statistics

The Horrible Predictions Of Climate Change

Here are some horrible predictions of climate change, first from Newsweek, then from Time magazine. Most of this will be familiar, indeed quotes like these are our daily fare, but please do read these especially for they reveal something most interesting.

Newsweek:

There are ominous signs that the earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production…The drop in food production could begin quite soon…The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and [Ukraine and Russia]…

[Climatologists] “are almost unanimous in the view that the [temperature] trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climate change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climate change would force economics and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”…

…satellite photos indicate a sudden large increase in Northern Hemisphere…

Climatologists are pessimistic that political leaders will take any positive action…The longer the planners delay, the more difficult will they find to cope with climate change once the results become a grim reality

Time:

In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims…In Canada’s wheat belt…disappointingly small harvest.

…global climatic upheaval…The trends show no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive…

Telltale signs are everywhere…catastrophic…

Even if temperature and rainfall patterns change only slightly in the near future in one or more of the three major grain-exporting countries…global food stores would be sharply reduced…Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought…gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: “I don’t believe the world’s present population is sustainable if [trends continue].

The world’s population was just under 4 billion at the time Hare frightened the reporter. It is now just under 8 billion. Simple math shows that this is roughly double.

Hare gave his prognostications in 1974, the year in which the Time article warned of “catastrophic” global cooling. We “sustained”, in spite of Hare’s predictions, so far anyway, for 48 years past his guess.

The Newsweek article came in June 1975.

And it was global cooling.

Newsweek:

…the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down…

…satellite photos indicate a large sudden increase in Northern Hemisphere snow cover…amount of sunshine reaching the ground in the continental U.S. diminished by 1.3 per cent…

Others regard cooling as a reversion to the “little ice age” conditions that brought bitter winters to much of Europe and northern America between 1600 and 1900…

Time:

However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler…

…unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice…ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12%…Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer…

The changing weather is apparently connected with differences in the amount of energy that the earth’s surface receives from the sun…

…dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight…

…Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight earth’s surface could tip the climate balance

Temperatures have been as high as they are now only about 5% of the time [of all time]…another ice age.

“You can’t use any of this, Briggs, you fool, because we now know more than we did then.”

This is very true. We do. For instance, we now know that scientists haven’t learned from their mistake and, now as then, lapse far too readily into bombastic overwrought needlessly frightening silly predictions of doom.

We also now know that all those curious cooling signals—the little ice age, the sun’s effect on climate, the cooler temperatures from 1600-1900, the times when Baffin Bay was clear of ice—all those signals somehow went missing, or are now denied (to use a popular word).

Incidentally, is this a case of “he who controls the data controls The Science?”

We also now know that we are in a far different political climate than in the 1970s, with half our global rulers anxious to steal as much as they possibly can, while the other half works on surveillance and control tools to implement their anti-Reality Utopian schemes.

We know that climatology was a small field in the 1970s, and we now know it is huge today, with many hangers on, and suffering badly from the ravages of peer review and the cancerous effects of having too much money and attention paid to it.

One thing we know that’s not new. Propaganda works. Just ask any activist if they heard about the articles above.

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Categories: Statistics

18 replies »

  1. Nobody has demonstrated the ability accurately, or indeed at all! – to *predict* climate; presumably because it is mostly driven by sun activity, which nobody can predict (beyond the c.11 year solar cycles, but their magnitude cannot be predicted).

    Having said that – I think the 1970s guys were probably correct that – overall, on average – global cooling would be significantly harmful to world food production.

    But global warming is good for overall world food production; and so is increased CO2 – for reasons that seems obvious, and with robust assumptions.

    So even if global warming *could* be predicted (which it can’t); then it would be a bad idea (overall, on average) to reduce or stop it from happening (which, anyway, we can’t).

    Since climate cannot be predicted, mankind can only react to what has already-happened – and even then, it may reverse next year, for all we know.

    It’s just not a significant issue. What *is* a significant issue is global (and local) demographic changes (i.e. the natural selection of humans, in action); which have-been and are massive, unprecedented, and (mostly) certainly disastrous.

    But… (crickets) …

  2. In the late seventies they also confidently predicted the drying up of North Sea oil production by the year 2000. It is still flowing.

  3. The demons are onto your transcriptions:
    1. “… have been to change dramatically …”;
    2. “In African, drought …”; and
    3. “… global good stores …”.

    They also got you again: “Once thing we know …”.

    You might get away with this bunch, if you just correct their work and delete my comment. 😉

  4. Malthus, Galton, Darwin, all those Victorian cousin “experts” were wrong. At the time they made their scientific prognostications and predictions, the Periodic Table of Elements was largely incomplete, there was effectively no knowledge of alloy technology, metallurgy, ceramics, etc and none of them could envision Man’s coming magical capacity to transmute matter. In short, their world view was nothing more than Plato’s metaphor of shadows of reality. Enter the Noosphere.

    Buckminster Fuller believed in Malthus’ predictions until the 1970s, when he ultimately changed that view. That is when he realized the power of adaptation and ephemeralization.

    He concluded in his final book, “The Grunch of Giants”, that interlocking global corporations were the true threat to the survival of humanity. This proved to be very prophetic, as much of what he predicted in that 1982 book has come true during the last decade.

    It can be read here (64 pp):

    https://archive.org/details/GrunchOfGiants

  5. One more obvious and frightening thing: they are preparing to excuse the deliberate food shortage that they themselves are causing by sanctioning Russia and Belarus. They invented the climate change mantra for this: to try and kill billions. The catch: Russia is going to provide for the needy, win their goodwill and the only victim is going to be the West, the intended victim all along, to the last Ukranian and (who knows?) Russian. All very simple and obvious. Some advocate that stupidity should not be dismissed out of hand. I for one believe that malice should not be dismissed when the convergence is clear as day, such as in this instance. God help us all, for we dug our own graves.

  6. What is interesting from the contemporary articles are predictions of food shortages. Right in time for the disasterous lockdown and foreign policy decisions to begin to starve millions. Looks like “Putin’s Price Hikes” are morphing into “Climate Change’s Mass Starvation”.

  7. I know you have your beefs with NN Taleb, but one of his pet peeves with those who make predictions and forecasts is–show us your record of predictions/forecasts so we can see for ourselves your competency and accuracy. Otherwise, you’re just a charlatan.

  8. What’s destroying civilization today is the confluence of stupidity and evil at the top, and the sheep-like compliance of the useful idiots below. I’m glad I’m old enough I don’t have another fifty or sixty years to live through the nightmare they’re creating. For that reason, I don’t envy the young, although the indoctrination they’re getting from kindergarten through graduate school will render them not only obedient, but numb to what’s being done.

  9. The last major climate effect on a large part of North America took place over four centuries ago and affected much of the Southwest with prolonged drought. Caused Native Americans to move several hundred miles north. Not only did the continent survive but a group of newcomers discovered that their part of the continent was excellent for growing all manner of crops including tobacco, rice, indigo and other food crops. Climate always changes but slowly. Weather changes yearly.

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