One thing we should know about models by now is that those that make good, skillful predictions should be trusted at least more than those that make predictions that never come true.
Here are two models making predictions about the same thing. Let’s look at both and see which one should be accorded more trust.
Model A: Equality. All people are really equal in capability and potential, but differ in material and cultural circumstance. These differences lead to inequalities in outcome, particularly in the outcomes of Diversity, which is variously defined as all “minorities” to mostly “minorities” in some area, and Equity, in which all but rulers and elites are made equal in material circumstance.
Equality predicts that if inequalities in circumstance and culture are removed or eliminated early, Equity and Diversity will obtain, and social harmony will result.
Model B: Inequality. No two people are equal in capability and potentiality, and that even if material and cultural circumstances are made perfectly equal, inequity would still result because of innate differences which can be never be removed.
Inequality predicts that if people come to understand their own always-limited-by-circumstance-and-cultural strengths and weaknesses, we will come closer to, but never achieve, social harmony.
Those in thrall to Model A do their best to enforce Equity in material and cultural circumstances, and even introduce stark inequities to benefit designated Victims.
One way to equalize circumstance is to weaken or remove standards. We saw previously that many medical schools allow Victims to score far below non-Victims on the standardized test (like the MCAT and Step exams), and still be admitted or passed. At least one med school eliminated the MCAT. The rest are requiring oaths to DIE, and making classes easier.
You have heard the Equality litany more times than I can remember, but it goes like this:
Diversity is desired. It is promised standards will not be lowered to achieve it. Standards are then lowered or dropped to achieve it. A spokeswoman announces the standards were not lowered. Soon after, the spokeswoman will announce the standards were never really needed in the first place.
Diversity is still not achieved. Model A’s predictions have failed. It is concluded that we didn’t Model A hard enough, and the litany begins again with standards lowered more.
Even worse, social disharmony increases. The people who notice and point this out are blamed for the lack of Diversity. These people are canceled and called anti-Victim.
At no point is it ever acknowledged Model A has failed. Or that Model B has merit. Because neither the theory of Equality, which drives Model A, and the desire for its “solution”, which is to say Equity, cannot be abandoned.
This long and pedantic introduction is to bring you the news that yet more major standards are being lowered because of Diversity.
The headline reads: “Law School Accrediting Panel Votes to Make LSAT Optional“. The real meat is in the subheadline: “Legal-education community has been divided over testing requirement and its impact on diversity in admissions”.
Every activity is a “community” these days. Legal-education community forsooth. Let that pass.
Anyway, there it is: the standards were having an “impact” on Diversity (they can’t say “influence”?). And that cannot be allowed. The foolish goal of Diversity for the sake of Diversity was not dropped, but the standards were.
Model B’s prediction: disharmony will result.
Which is to say, I warrant the predictions of Model B would have turned out better than the predictions of Model A. And that the contest wouldn’t even be close. We can also guess that the proponents of Model A will not acknowledge this, and will pretend not to see the results.
Of course, my warrant is counterfactual, because Model B is not allowed in the door.
It is not historically counterfactual, though. Just take any city run under Model A that was once run under Model B. Compare and contrast. Baltimore, Detroit, now Seattle, now St Louis, now Seattle, now Portland. Which had more harmony in each case?
None. Not even one. The proof of that is in the opening sentence to the WSJ article:
An American Bar Association panel voted Friday to drop a requirement that law school applicants take the LSAT or another standardized admissions test, amid debate about whether the tests help or hurt diversity in admissions.
Debate. What’s to debate? What isn’t known at this late date?
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