Listen to the podcast on YouTube, Bitchute, or Gab. Today’s podcast has a lot more material than the written post, because, mainly, I was livid over this land grab.
It’s happening. The Dutch Regime will begin seizing private property because of the tyranny of models.
One story’s sadly funny summary:
The Dutch government plans to buy and close down up to 3,000 farms near environmentally sensitive areas to comply with EU nature preservation rules.
The Netherlands is attempting to cut down its nitrogen pollution and will push ahead with compulsory purchases if not enough farms take up the offer voluntarily.
Farmers will be offered a deal “well over” the worth of the farm, according to the government plan that is targeting the closure of 2,000 to 3,000 farms or other major polluting businesses.
Earlier leaked versions of the plan put the figure at 120 per cent of the farm’s value but that figure has not yet been confirmed by ministers.
“There is no better offer coming,” Christianne van der Wal, nitrogen minister, told MPs on Friday. She said compulsory purchases would be made with “pain in the heart”, if necessary.
Is there a better real-life example of the cry bully? Christianne cries out in pain as she strikes you.
There is no nitrogen crisis. It does not exist. The idea one exists come predominately in the form of models, which were generated by Experts. The models, following the usual process, become The Science. Which only “deniers” question.
Back in August I posted this: “The Model That Dutch Rulers Rely On To Claim There Is A Nitrogen ‘Crisis’ Has No Skill“. Please read that. That post links to a paper Jaap Hanekamp and I did, which is “Criticizing AERIUS/OPS Model Performance.”
The paper is not that complicated. If you’ve any background in old-fashioned science (and are not saturated in The Science), you’ll be able to follow.
RIVM, the Regime-backed group that runs the “crisis” model responded to the paper.
We answered their criticism with a rebuttal, which you can download here. The most important response was this:
3. In our paper, we discussed a simple mean model. This greatly confused RIVM. But it is simplicity itself. The RIVM also says the mean model “has no predictive value.” This is false.
The mean model is just the mean, or a guess of a mean, of what future observations will be. It is used as a forecast or prediction of future observations, in the precise same way as the OPS, or any complex model, is used. The simple mean model is a constant prediction that all future observations will equal previously observed mean.
Mean models are common and useful. For instance, we don’t know what the exact temperature will be, but it’s a good bet October will be colder than September in the Netherlands. Right now, writing in August of 2022, using that model, we predict October will be colder than September. Policy can be made on that model; and, indeed, is. Especially by farmers.
The mean is possibly not as accurate as a complex meteorological model based on thermodynamics, but it (the mean) is still an excellent guess in the absence of that complex model.
We can, and should, compare a mean model with the more complex model. If it turns out, using the very measures advocated by RIVM, the mean model beats the complex model, we should not use the complex model. We would do better with the mean model. This is obvious. We say the complex model does not have skill with respect to the mean model.
Skill is a common in weather, climate and atmospheric deposition models. We supply many references in our paper to prove this. We could supply many more, or RIVM can look them up on their own.
Skill is easy to understand. It is a silly argument to say that because it has not been used before by RIVM, it should not be used now, or that it is “not relevant”.
This is a dodge, a way to escape the consequence of the poor performance of the OPS model.
Below, we show how skill works in detail using the mean model, and using data supplied by RIVM themselves. Skill as a concept is exceedingly useful; indeed, necessary.
I struggle to explain skill, which should be applied to all models. Every single statistical model, every model of any kind, should be able to demonstrate skill. If it cannot, it should not be used. Can you please let me know in comments if the concept confuses you?
Now I don’t know enough about Dutch politics to predict what will happen to farmers. I’ll leave that to Jaap (see his blog).
I do know that if the government can seize private property based on lousy The Science, the technique will only expand. Our Regime is pushing “climate change” The Science with a demonic energy. They had Biden say he’d eliminate fossil fuels. The man in charge of the Vatican put out that investing in fossil fuels is bad. Et cetera.
This is insane. It is not sane. It is crazy.
MORE BACKGROUND
Here is a sampling of other papers we have done proving the “crisis” is, at best, overblown and, as is most likely, ridiculous. (These are the friendliest links to avoid paywalls.)
0. Outlining A New Method To Quantify Uncertainty In Nitrogen Critical Loads
1. Uncertainty in the MAN Data Calibration & Trend Estimates. Over-certainty, bad statistical methods, etc.
2. Fixes to the Ryden & McNeil Ammonia Flux Model. A physical model which doesn’t account for all uncertainty.
3. Nitrogen Critical Loads: Critical Reflections on Past Experiments, Ecological Endpoints, and Uncertainties. Statistical silliness abounds here.
4. Letter to the Editor – Nitrogen Critical Loads: Critical Reflections on Past Experiments, Ecological Endpoints and Uncertainties. More of the same.
5. Response to van Pul, van Zanten and Wichink Kruit
6. Comment on Goedhart and Huijsmans (2017)
8. Ammoniak in Nederland – Enkele kritische wetenschappelijke
And we have others in the pipeline.
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The high school in my old home town, Cape Elizabeth, Maine, is putting on its yearly play – this one is Urinetown, which is a gay and stupid play based on Climate Change and greedy corporations.
The collectivists own everything and all we can do is note and document the collapse all around us.
The problem is man and the solution is bigly government
There’s a meme making the rounds, that shows a photo of two heavily face-masked individuals (some, like these, really DO look like big white “face diapers”); it reads:
“Some people wouldn’t know tyranny if it covered their faces, locked them in their homes, enacted the biggest wealth transfer in history, censored them, made them show papers, and force-medicated them with experimental drugs”
We can add to that list, [Some people wouldn’t know tyranny if…] it nationalized their farmland and made them eat processed bugs, destroyed their energy infrastructure, destroyed their economy, and put them, and their heirs, $32+ trillion in debt, all while forcing children to attend government indoctrination centers, so they’ll keep thinking this s**t is Shinola.
Crikey Cranky
Yeah
Just before the Lab Leak, our local theatre group (prior years we’d bought their season tickets) presented Urinetown along with other gay, woke and INPORTANT (sic) plays.
We couldn’t find but one of six plays to attend. We were so demoralized, we didn’t go to that one.
John Stossel has the best presentation on land ownership and freedom that I have ever seen. He uses Thanksgiving and kids to illustrate. About 4 minutes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4XcbM6nkBs
“There is no better offer coming,” Christianne van der Wal, nitrogen minister, told MPs on Friday. She said compulsory purchases would be made with “pain in the heart”, if necessary.
Expect some stalwart hold-outs taking this matter to the Courts. Christianne won’t get anywhere near the “cooperation” she’s expecting.
“Nitrogen minister”
Jeezuz, I almost busted a rib laughing when I read that asinine title.
“if the government can seize private property based on lousy The Science, the technique will only expand”
I have to disagree on this point.
Unfortunately, the primary learning mechanism for humans is failure. For example, ever wonder how humans figured out which plants were deadly poisonous? Well, someone ate a plant and died. Repeat this a few times, and humans eventually made the connection.
As usual, people are again going to die for the sake of knowledge, and it won’t be primarily the Dutch doing the dying, as a consequence of this:
“Thanks to decades of innovation and hard work, the Netherlands is the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter, after the U.S.”
Make the nitrogen minister Cristianne Off The Wallet a better counter-offer – “That she and her cohort of Experts won’t be brutally tenderised, burnt and eaten because of the obvious food shortage they have programmed into their nitro-glycerin stupidity if they simply back off, shut-up and file all this The Science ™ in the back of a cabinet and forget any of this ever happened.”
Re: “The man in charge of the Vatican put out that investing in fossil fuels is bad.
“In a new interview with America Magazine, Pope Francis upheld the humanity of our unborn brothers and sisters but refused to say that they were, well, people.”
“Therefore, there is a living human being,” he said of the month-old fetus. “I do not say a person, because this is debated, but a living human being.”
See interview at:https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/pope-francis-just-said-he-wont-comment-on-unborn-children-as-persons/
Just here is my comment regarding Francis’ comment. His huge push on climate and refusal to accept human being for the unborn …. he has great difficulties ….
“And so, Jesus Christ, while in His Mother’s womb, was a living human being but not a person??? Fully divine and fully human, yes. Like us in all but sin, as St. Paul writes.
All of this would have been sorted out eons ago, if Christ’s Church had retained God our Father’s original set-up of a married Pope and married priests …. not all were married of the priests. That way, through the marriages, woman’s holy advice would have been heard, and the unborn child would definitely be named a person from conception.
As in, “What do you think is growing in me???” “What was Jesus when first conceived???” “What did the maiden Mary agree to?” “What do you think happened when the Holy Spirit overshadowed her?” “A baby, Baby Jesus, the person Jesus Christ was conceived.”
“Just so, women conceive baby persons, and the persons are human beings as opposed to animal or fish beings.” “We do not need science to discover any of this.” “We know this because it is God’s set-up …. we are spirit, soul, and body, heart, mind, and emotions, all present and awaiting development.”
Hoping the Dutch keep their land. Help. Lord Jesus!!
God bless, C-Marie
My comment is posted at the link:https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/pope-francis-just-said-he-wont-comment-on-unborn-children-as-persons/
The chance of FB=0 is almost zero when the FB score is applied to “validation data.” When it’s computed using test/training data, it is useless for some models with non-categorial responses as it would always be zero. For instance, the linear regression where the sum of the residuals is always 0, i.e., FB=0.
When a model, e.g., the logistic model, with categorical responses, then F-score or G-mean is about the correctly predicted positive and negative rates, recall, and precision. In this case, it has been shown that appropriate data augmentation (yes, synthetic or padded data) can improve the skill score calculated based on validation data. Google for SMOTE, for example.
Mr. Crank- while I agree with your overall take on the play Urinetown, when the people rise up and throw out the evil monopolist who controls , was it the bathrooms and the water? I forget; everything goes to hell in a handbasket. Or an outhouse!
“Skill is a common in weather, climate and atmospheric deposition models.”
Should perhaps be
Skill is a common measure in weather, climate and atmospheric deposition models.