How Did We Do In Our 2025 Predictions?

On Monday, 5 January, we’ll register new predictions. Don’t put them here.

I bring glad prognosticative tidings and am pleased to report we did slightly better this year than last. Yet since last year’s performance was (to be polite) non-spectacular, our improvement does not amount to much.

Do not despair over this. Predicting the behavior of men is the most difficult of all sciences. Few excel. Most of us are groping towards the future. It is difficult enough to see the present, let alone foresee the future.

With that, here are the results. I used a (secret) quantum AI machine-learning genetic string theory calculation to score predictions, all considering skill, which is rates guesses by their (perceived by me) difficulty. For instance, it’s a lot easier to predict the sun will rise in the east, and be right, than predicting greys from Alpha Centuari will attack from behind the rising sun in June, and be right. The latter correct prediction would receive great weight, the former almost none.

Second place: Bill Lacey for his prediction of the collapse of the market for electric vehicles happening this year. Ford announced only recently it was pulling the plug. Of course, many Ford vehicles, like its trucks, are used in rural settings, where charging is a lot harder.

First place: Simon Platt for his prediction that Pop Leo XIV would replace Pope Francis. This was difficult because he first had to surmise Francis’s death, then correctly name the new Pope. Francis died on 21 April, and Leo took holy office on 8 May.

2025’s Predictions

I’m only listing the best or worst, or at least most interesting, prediction(s) from each individual. This is the order in which they appeared. Search for your name.

Blog

Briggs: “The bird flu panic that are trying to juice won’t catch on, though they’ll certainly give it the old college try.” They did, and failed. They also tried bringing back covid in England, which failed. Thank God.

Shawn E Marshall: “A Divine Intervention will bring us a Catholic Pope.” This is a qualified hit.

Michael Dowd: “Martial law declared in the United States due to economic deterioration, etc.” That was the hope. There is still time. But one doubts.

Bruce G Charlton: “My general prediction is that the totalitarian global System will continue to collapse into chaos, due to escalating infighting among different types of evil factions — but that people who oppose The Left will interpret System collapse as progress for their side.” This is so, but few points are awarded because this prediction is not much different than Persistence, i.e. the forecast that things in the future will continue as they are now going.

Neil Upton: “Putin will be deposed.” Something like the opposite of this is true.

Stephen W. Shipman: ” Solar weather, in the form of an outsized Coronal Mass Ejection, will slither through our weakening Magnetosphere and cause electrical outages in North America.” There were indeed some mighty CMEs this past year, with crackling light shows all over. But except for minor annoyances, there were no large outages. One wonders whether all such predictions along these lines are exaggerated.

Zundfolge: “There will be a mass casualty event during the inauguration (if its held outside in DC in the traditional way). Possibly a swarm of explosive laden drones. Many dead, but Trump will survive.” There are always a few wildly optimistic predictions every year. We can always admire the enthusiasm.

Justinian: “Justin Trudeau resigns after being MeToo’ed. The hand of Trump in the matter will be obvious.” He’s outta there, all right, but not for this.

Simon Platt: “Leo IV will succeed Francis”. I leave what had to have been a typo in the prediction. The Pope is in fact Leo XIV. A remarkably accurate guess.

Steve: (paraphrasing): “Chris Christie will remain fat and irrelevant”. Yes.

Keith: “Trump’s government reforms will be largely lukewarm and ineffective due to lack of Republican support and his own fading ambition. DOGE fails miserably unfortunately.” Alas, alas. Yes.

Uncle Mike: “…2025…will be another Year of Terror in this country and elsewhere in the world, knowing full well that I won’t be believed (or credited with foresight) when it happens.” All true, but it doesn’t beat Persistence.

Paul Murphy: “LENR (formerly known as cold fusion) R&D achieves public visibility with ‘experts’ pronouncing it the wave of the future and some bleeding edge opinionators venturing to suggest that in-situ generation via LENR could be the future of the electric vehicle.” If you replace “LENR” with “AI”, it’s a hit. As it is, no.

Eric: “AI WILL be used extensively like bots to influence discourse on social media at the expense of public temperment.” It’s happening.

hudbwu: “For once, a politician won’t lie. Specifically, Trump and his dudes will make a big show of deportations, then the drive will peter out, and then Trump will for once be an honest politician and make a national address where he will basically say ‘well, we tried but…'” Nope.

John M: “Ford, and maybe the other US car manufacturers, will discontinue making and devloping electric cars that are rechargeable by plugging it in. They will announce the switch to self-charging electric cars. I expect this announcement October 1 +/-2 weeks.” John should have used this, quite proper, cynicism to make the real prediction, which is that Ford (and others) are fleeing the Big E.

Kevin C: “Brick and mortar retail experiences a boom”. I don’t know that’s true. Seems more like a stasis.

Alain Petit: “Cardinal Turkson becomes Pope.” Didn’t happen.

Cookie: “Collapse of Bitcoin due to a mathematical wrinkle.” Many always predict something like this. So far, no.

The Invisible Hand: “They will crash the markets (S&P down at least 40% from start of year) at some point after Trump implements some policies, such as deportations.” More of the opposite of this happened.

Ian Wright: “Hot war between Venezuela and Guyana, although maybe not officialized by declaration.” Points are given because of the war with Venezuela part, though not full points because its opponent was Guyana.

Spaceranger: “Transgender will be so yesterday. The L’s and G’s already know that the B’s and T’s were only grouped with them by democrats seeking to expand an identity group base for political purposes.” This is a qualified hit. Trump did ban the butchering and doping of children, and there is pushback in women’s sports. But the left won’t give this up. They must be gods and will nature to obey.

Steve: “Scientists will convince the last holdouts opposing Einstein’s general relativity with indisputable proof — photographic evidence of light being deflected as it passes near your mom.” I showed my mom this. No light made it past her.

Zapollo: “We see the first major political scandal involving a ‘deepfake’ video. Trump will probably be involved somehow.” This was a good guess. Didn’t happen. Yet.

Mike Anderson: “There will be an attempted terrorist event at the Superbowl.” If you count the half time shows, then yes.

Hun: “DOGE will be a total failure, presented as success.” Presented as failure.

Johnno: “The fracturing of the American right that began with H-1B will escalate into 4-way civil war between MAGA voters, Conservative Inc., Swamp Republicans, and formerly-Left-but-still-liberal converts who will all fight over who gets to tell Trump what to do, stalling America’s Greatness over the long term because no consensus can be reached.” This happened. See the events when Tucker Carlson, a journalist, asking questions of Nick Fuentes, to see why Fuentes believed what he did. So-called conservatives had a shrieking-weep fest to rival any woke gathering.

Plantagenet: “Trudeau and the Liberal Party get a serious spanking. Pierre Polievre becomes PM and immediately ends the carbon tax, reboots Keystone, and ends the coming ban on ICE cars.” Canada merely pressed the REPEAT button.

John McKeon: “Trump will step down likely due to health reasons.” Seems robust, with both vim and vigor.

MikeW: “Intelligent Design will become accepted research and course material in biology departments at Christian colleges and Hillsdale.” Believe or not, but Hillsdale’s science departments are woke.

Don B: “The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine will be in cease fire or at an end.” Perhaps half right.

Pouncer: “No New States! Trump’s supposed efforts to buy/conquer/add Greenland, Canada, and Panama to Imperial America will be revealed as ‘stray voltage'”. Too bad. I think it’s because making a flag with 51 stars isn’t so easy.

Sander van der Wal: “The Ukraine war will be over before the end of 2025, with an unconditional surrender by Ukraine’s military. Zelensky will start a government-in-exile in London”. Amazingly, the EU is, what the kiddies call, doubling down. Nice to know you, Europe.

Aaron: “The ruling oligarchs elect a supreme oligarch (of somewhat murky royal lineage) to rule us all. Conditional upon the outcome of prediction number one, so tiny to low possibility.” It’s not a bad idea, but it hasn’t happened. Yet.

C-Marie: “Trust in God will increase due to earthquakes, waters surpassing their boundaries, temperatures rising and falling, government failing to meet the needs of the people.” I believe this is in fact happening, though at small scales.

Joy: “Starmer won’t be PM.” Alas, alas.

Phileas_Frogg: “The Turks will make substantial moves against Iran, which it see’s as vulnerable in the wake of Assad’s unlooked for calamity. Expect the Iranians to undergo a domestic legitimacy crisis, likely accompanied by protests.” This might even be right, for all we know.

John Doe: “My prediction for 2025 is that AI technology will continue to advance and become more integrated into our daily lives.” True, but too easy.

Wyotana: “Our overlords cause or allow an attack very much like the Oct. 7 extravaganza in ‘Israel’.” Nothing seems to fit the bill.

Timothy: “A new Unified Theory of DIE, Climate Change, and Reparations will be proposed:
‘POC’s, and POC’s alone, effecting Positive Climate Change by virtue of their increased absorption of dangerous ‘Sun-Rays,’ will beget Reparations proportionate to the sum of their square inches of integument engaged.'” World Ends, POCs Hardest Hit has always been a “climate change” headline.

Yancey Ward: “Documents are released by the new administration (probably recovered from hammered hard drives) that prove beyond doubt that the US funded the research that led directly to COVID-19 and that Fauci led the coverup of these facts. A grand jury indicts Fauci, Dazsak, and Baric for murder and multiple other people with conspiracy to obstruct justice.” Now wouldn’t that have been nice.

Gail D Finke: “Kamala Harris will very briefly be the first woman president before Trump is inaugurated.” I even had thoughts along those lines, but Biden’s ego, it seems, didn’t allow it.

Cary Cotterman: “Impeachment attempts on Trump will resume.” Not in any real way, given Republican “control.”

Robert Sides: “After more State fascism, a European nation will face a largely populist overthrow after a Solidarity (Polish) sized upheaval. This will spread to other nations.” Not yet, not yet.

Gamecockjerry: “Israel resumes it’s genocide of Gaza and Houthis retaliate and bomb Tel Aviv.” No explosions heard, anyway.

Substack

BuelahMan’s Revolt: “Big push for antisemitism laws in order to silence the noticers.” They did try, here and elsewhere.

Rolf Swart: “Pope goes full woke and transitions. Pronouns We/Them, and will be known as Popess Francesca.” He transitioned, all right.

Bill Lacey: “Despite Elon Musk’s involvement with Trump, the market for EVs collapses. Car dealers, stuck with an unmoving inventory of 2024 EVs, refuse to take new shipments of 2025 EVs from manufacturers causing a severe cutbacks in production.” Ford yelled Retreat! Others are sure to follow. Not so easy a prediction to make.

SOR: “Pope Francis will not finish the year 2025 as pope (100%), either due to death 99.9% or resignation (0.1%), and a conclave will be convened.” Yep.

Shawn Pitcher: “The story ‘breaks’ on mainstream media outlets that oil is actually a renewable resource produced by an ancient class of microorganism which represents the majority of life on earth.” It didn’t.

GTH: “The war in Ukraine wraps up with terms favourable to Russia (not far off what he wanted in January 2022) except there are hundreds of thousands less nominal white Christians as the blood sacrifice.” The EU is enjoying leaning into their fears too much to end it.

Rick (from Texas): “RFK Jr, if confirmed, will also prove to be a disappointment, not able to facilitate any meaningful change in pharma and only small changes in food content.” Depends on where you started here, but some are happy, some not.

Jim Foye: “Biden dies within a few weeks of leaving office.” I thought he would, too. I guess he’s waiting to get his payout for the book “he” is writing.

Gunther Heinz: “I predict that William M. Briggs will be called to testify about the concept of ACTUARIAL FAIR PRICE at the Luigi Mangione trial.” I can’t see why I wasn’t.

Dave: “Space aliens make themselves known to the people of Earth, except most are too jaded by 70 years of PSYOPS to take it seriously, governments freak out and try to co-opt it as this will destroy what credibility they have left and will fail to do so, the aliens eventually start making contact with humans directly ignoring governments.” Plausible, but it didn’t happen.

Don: “the earth will finally get a global warming climate so hot that it vaporizes all the water away in the oceans caused by the sun becoming a red giant.” He was jesting, of course.

Jipowap von Angband: “Easter is celebrated ‘together’ between Rome and the East, but no resolution occurs and the Eastern Orthodox continues entirely separate. Pope keeps Easter as a floating date.” This didn’t happen, but something like it did; we are getting closer. Maybe.

Robin B.: “The announcement that a major pharmaceutical company is working on ‘cure’ for the negative effects of the mRNA shots.” No announcements, but you do wonder.

Jane Nelson: “D.O.G.E. will be hard at work updating the government’s computer network. Jobs will be eliminated and efficiency will increase as more becomes automated. This will impact the FDA and NIH by revealing their most heinous policies.” Now wouldn’t that have been nice.

Broken Gears: “Science and academia will realize and acknowledge that reality does, in fact, exist, and cannot be conjured into existence on a whim.: Ha ha! Good joke!

Graham R. Knotsea: “Trump will not perform mass deportations of illegals as he promised, yet his supporters will insist he has already deported half of them.” Supporters want more, naturally, but are happy that it’s at least happening.

Hana C. Waumbek: “NSA/NSA contractor employees will be found to have been buying up RVs and are trolling KOAs (Kampgrounds of America).” I don’t know this didn’t happen. Good excuse to go to Florida or Arizona in the winter.

O navegador: “USA will increase their influence and action through soft/hard power in latin america.” Yes.

Michael Carter: ” Confidence: 60% US goes to war with Iranian proxy combatants in middle east before November 2025.” Confidence 100%.

No_nonsense: “The enthusiasm for zero carbon will wither even among the smart set. Someone with political clout will say that we should encourage INCREASING atmospheric CO2 to 500 ppm to encourage worldwide flourishing.” First part yes, second part no.

JJD: “This year will be colder than the 10 year rolling average. The Summer Antarctic ice sheet is currently the largest since we started using satellites to measure this, and I suggest this will contie to be a trend.” Winter started darn early up here. Already a full winter’s worth of snow. And ice.

Zach Stambaugh: “within the term of trump 47 it will become public knowledge that Nick Fuentes was or is a Fed asset, likely as part of a deal to avoid prosecution or reduce sentencing.” No official word on this, and opinion is even waning on the idea.

David Sharples: “The long, long, long….. overdue critique of Islam will commence in Western countries. An end of the true “-phobia” found in Western countries.” It hasn’t happened. Yet. But make this prediction again this year and we’ll see.

gunker: “Musk will fall out with Trump before any DOGE savings are realised.” Yes indeed.

Cristian Georgescu: [Made a good point about risk and probability; no prediction.]

Jim Fedako: “The Republican Party establishment will undermine Trump, worse than even the Democrats.” They are trying, but all expected they would.

John Henry Holliday, DDS: “An attempt (bomb) will be made on Putin’s life. As always, it will be claimed that Ukrainian special forces were the masterminds behind it. As always, it will have CIA fingerprints all over it.” Putin seems to be in top health.

PJ London: “The US economy will take a major hit with the dollar falling against Renimbi, Treasury Bonds going unsold and US imported goods inflation rising 10-20% but stag(de)flation of US products and housing.” Thank God this was wrong.

Don’t put new predictions here. Wait unit the 5th’s post.

Here are the various ways to support this work:

• Subscribe at Substack (paid or free)
• Cash App: $WilliamMBriggs
• Zelle: use email: matt@wmbriggs.com
• Buy me a coffee
• Paypal
• Other credit card subscription or single donations
• Hire me
• Subscribe at YouTube
• PASS POSTS ON TO OTHERS