Briggs

New Paper! The Replacement For Hypothesis Testing

Here's a link to the PDF. Briggs, WM, HT Nguyen, D Trafimow, 2019. The Replacement for Hypothesis Testing. In Structural Changes and Their Econometric Modeling, Springer, V Kreinovich, S Sriboonchitta…

Philosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Eternity Lasts A Long Time

Previous post. You MUST review. It's been a few weeks since our break, and doubtless your memory is sketchy about where we are and how we got here. THAT THOSE…

Culture

The Week In Doom — Religion Of Man Triumphant Edition

Item They're tightening the vise. As predicted, they're coming for your money. As one tweet down in the thread says (my emphasis): '"EU needs #digital single market. #Regulation should be…

Culture Statistics

The Death of Christmas — Guest Post by Uncle Mike

Last December 19th President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 2,000 American troops from Syria. The New York Times called the action "abrupt and chaotic" and reported: The decision brought a…

Statistics

A Case Of Bad Statistics In An IQ-Intelligence Study

We're going to soon talk more about "IQ" and "intelligence". I'm working on a more in-depth article on the subject to carefully explicate the vast over-certainties I see on "both…

Fun

How’d We Do On Our 2018 Predictions?

How'd we do? Let me put it this way: the Magic 8 Ball is in no danger of losing its position as top soothsayer. We were game, but overall there…

Fun

Register Your Predictions For 2019!

As has been our tradition these many years, it's time to register our predictions for the coming year. We look at how well we did last year tomorrow. Rules: Number…

Statistics

The Probability Of Your Existence

A version of this column originally ran 7 July 2014. To the nearest order of magnitude, there have existed, including us, about 100 billion human beings. This proves what was…

gareth on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 8, 2025
Well, having made it all the way through, my takeaways were: 1. The answer to the question, "what is the…
NLR on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
It can't be simulations all the way down because a simulation needs an underlying reality to simulate. But also, in…
McChuck on The Biggest Mistake In Science Applied To Universe As SimulationDecember 8, 2025
There is only one reality. Our perceptions of it may differ. Reality is real. The map is not the territory.…
JH on Class 72: Most Claims Of “Controlled For” Are Wrong: The Wrong WayDecember 8, 2025
Adding a constant of 200 to the equation will not eliminate the so-called probability leakage, which is essentially a result…
JH on Class 73: How To Tell If You Have Bad DiceDecember 8, 2025
With m = (1,2,3,4,5,6) x 10, and a = 0.02, then Pr(E_b|mB) = 0.99998. So the weird m would indeed…