Briggs

All Probability Is Conditional: An Answer To Senn; Part IV

Read Part III. Still with me? Hope so, because we're only on the second page of Senn's article (but don't fret; we'll be skipping most of it). Review: in logical-probability…

Philosophy Statistics

Probability Isn’t “Fair”: An Answer To Senn; Part III

A quick reminder that we're trying to unpack the meaning of the "is fair" in the proposition "This die is fair," and trying to deduce the probability this proposition is…

Philosophy Statistics

There Is Only One Kind Of Probability: An Answer To Senn; Part II

Read Part I. Some of this material is explained in detail in this series. Just after the introduction, Senn starts his argument by claiming an "important distinction between two types…

Philosophy Statistics

Bayes Is More Than Probably Right: An Answer To Senn; Part I

Stephen Senn very kindly answered a post I wrote on p-values (Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die) by sending me his "You May Believe You Are a Bayesian…

Statistics

Cornell Teaching Sojourn: Probability, Stats, & R

Time for the annual migration to Ithaca via a well accoutered golden coach (complete with undergraduates feeding professors grapes grown at Cornell's orchards). There I will linger for two weeks,…

Philosophy Statistics

Tobacco Ads Could Lead To Cancer Cure

Today's headline is true. True means that which is certain, without the possibility of error; that which is not false; that which accords with reality. It means that which is…

Statistics

Unsignificant Statistics: Or Die P-Value, Die Die Die

Must...resist...quoting... from Stephen Ziliak's gorgeous invective "Unsignificant Statistics" (where I stole today's title) in the Financial Post. Well, just a little (all emphasis mine and joyfully placed): Statistical significance is…

Philosophy Statistics

Scientists Discover Way To Increase Publication Count

Anybody who has spent any time in a university library amidst the papers of his specialty knows that the absolute last thing which is needed is more of them. Journals…

hudbwu on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
Next time, Twitch livestream writing a computer program to make that bell-shaped graph. I'm sure there's a few people that…
NLR on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
The sports betting companies encourage people to risk money. It's fun, "everybody" is doing it, it's legal, you might be…
Robert Arvanitis on Sports Betting Is An Excellent Way To Lose MoneyJanuary 12, 2026
Of course the arithmetic is correct. And as with drugs, drinks and sex, gambling is potentially addictive. ON THE other…
John Pate on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 11, 2026
It occurred to me that what we can see on that graph gives us a different interpretation of cause and…
McChuck on Class 75: A Gentle Introduction To Time SeriesJanuary 11, 2026
O/T, but pertinent to our Gracious Host, who might just be one of the best possible candidates: "Speaking of which,…