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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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About Briggs
Briggs is an internationally reviled thoughtcriminal, listed as One Of The Top 7 Dangerous Minds by the Hague.
Posted inStatistics

Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?

An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
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Posted inCulture

Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded

Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…
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Posted inStatistics

Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics

There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…
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Posted inCulture

Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco

The strangest thing about yesterday's Stand Up For Religious Freedom rally in San Francisco were the "undecided" gentlemen who came dressed with brassieres on their heads. This was curious because…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy

Top 10 Essential (Philosophical) Conservative Book List

Today, a classic column. Original appearance 5 June 2011. A list of (non-fiction) books concerning knowledge, and the limits of certainty, about man's relations to other men. The Federalist Papers…
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Posted inCulture

University’s Non-Discrimination Clause

I've been looking at university positions and typical is this fine print from the University of San Francisco (which used to be Catholic): The University of San Francisco is an…
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Posted inPhilosophy

Realism vs. Anti-Realism IV: (some) Objections to realism—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues

Johnson did not answer ...; but talking for victory and determined to be master of the field, he had recourse to the device which Goldsmith imputed to him in the…
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  1. McChuck on IQ Is Not IntelligenceMay 30, 2025

    "Ceci n'est pas une pipe."

  2. C-Marie on IQ Is Not IntelligenceMay 30, 2025

    So, my younger sister, when she was in the fifth grade, took what was called, an Intelligence test back in…

  3. JH on Class 52: The Origin Of ParametersMay 29, 2025

    Notation is crucial in math. I still remember how confused I was when my professors made writ-os in the equations…

  4. Briggs on Class 52: The Origin Of ParametersMay 29, 2025

    Thanks, Lou.

  5. Lou on Class 52: The Origin Of ParametersMay 29, 2025

    Hello, You requested some feedback; Please just keep going, I like the math Regards

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