Posted inStatistics
Nate Silver’s Obama Prediction: What Does It Mean?
It was Sophocles who first noted the truism, "No one loves the messenger who brings bad news." But the converse is also true. As it is written (in Romans 10:15),…
Posted inCulture
The Downside Of Technology: Being On Call 24/7—Guest Post by The Blonde Bombshell (with pic!)
Let me first say that I am a modest person with a modest existence. I have a job, which is nothing special, but I do it well. I have a…
Posted inPhilosophy
Academic Philosopher Finds New Way To Dehumanize People; Calls For Beetroot Liberation
Update Now with new and improved title! (Title writing is a talent which your humble author possesses not.) In the classic 1978 documentary Attack of the Killer Tomatoes! we watch…
Posted inStatistics
Intrade’s Record In Picking Presidents: Is There Market Manipulation?
An "influential forecast" is one in which knowledge of the prediction changes the uncertainty in the thing being predicted. Consider a (respected) political opinion poll which announces Candidate B has…
Posted inCulture
Italian Scientists Convicted! Shocked That Their Predictions Were Heeded
Do you feel that chill? It's from a fell wind issuing from an Italian judge's courtroom, where he has just sent a group of seismologists and one politician to the…
Posted inStatistics
Risk Analysis And Over Certainty: Classical vs. Bayesian vs. Predictive Statistics
There are two main uses of statistics by civilians, defined as folks who use statistics, who may have even had a class or two in the subject, but who are…
Posted inPhilosophy
Realism vs. Anti-Realism V: Conclusion—Guest Post by G. Rodrigues
The debate between the three views is ancient, and extremely complicated. It can also seem at first glance to be very dry, esoteric, and irrelevant to practical life. But nothing…
Posted inCulture
Stand Up For Religious Freedom San Francisco
The strangest thing about yesterday's Stand Up For Religious Freedom rally in San Francisco were the "undecided" gentlemen who came dressed with brassieres on their heads. This was curious because…