#### Coronavirus Update III: Secondary Peak and Freak——ing Out

All the good stuff, caveats, and explanations in linked in Update II, so go there first if you haven't seen it yet. Signs & Symptoms Skip to the next section…

#### Observable-Based , Predictive, or Causal Statistics? Don’t Test! Don’t Estimate!

The term predictive statistics is used to describe a focus on observables, and not on any invisible model-based parameters as is found in estimation and null hypothesis significance testing. It…

#### Probability Thought Experiment With NNT: Reader Question

From reader Ernst, this interesting probability/statistics question. First, NNT = number needed to treat, which is, stealing from this site to save time, "The Number Needed to Treat (NNT) is…

#### Coronavirus Statistics: R Code Included! — Updated With Hack To Adjust For New Reporting Methods

Intro I thought it would be fun to turn the daily coronavirus predictions I've been making into statistics class, complete with code. There are two parts to this: (1) the…

#### The Predictive Way Is The Only Way In Statistics: Sick Cow Edition

What is the purpose of modeling? There can be only two. The first is to say what happened, to explain. But in order to do this one must first assume…

#### When Does A Small Probability Mean Impossibility?

Question from reader Richard Stevens: A professional scientist, holding an MS in one of the hard sciences, addressed the argument that the probability of creating a protein or an enzyme…

#### Control Groups With No Cancers In Hormesis Data Sets

A well known paper by Duport et al. on radiation hormesis makes a statement about control groups which is not quite right. The paper is "Database of Radiogenic Cancer in…

#### Why The Bootstrap Seems To Work—And Why It Produces Over-Certainty

Let's drag the statistician's hoary threadbare ball-filled bag out of the cupboard to make a point. In it are 3 white balls and 2 black. Using the statistical syllogism, we…