Class – Page 7 – William M. Briggs

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI

Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to…

Class Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X

Review! Last time we created four models of CGPA. Which is correct? They all are. Why? I should ask as a homework question, but I'll remind us here. Since all…

Class Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IX

Review! Last time we successfully computed our model (8): (8) Pr(CGPA = i | guesses of new measures, grading rules, old obs, model), where i = 0,...,5. The model…

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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VIII

Review! We're continuing with the CGPA example. The data is on line, and of unknown origin, but good enough to use as an example. We will build a correlational model,…

Class Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII

Review! This is our last week of theory. Next week the practical side begins in earnest. However much fun that will be, and it will be a jolly time, this…

Class Statistics

Cliodynamics And The Lack Of A Hari Seldon

There will be no Hari Seldon. But there will be prophets. If there is no Seldon, there will be no psychohistory, the fictional astonishingly accurate mathematical science predicting gross human…

Class Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! Last time…

Class Statistics

What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?

From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and…

McChuck on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 20, 2026
I am morally certain that murdering innocent children for fun and profit is evil. There. That was easy.
JohnK on Is Moral Certainty Possible?August 19, 2026
For me, 'moral certainty' is a category error. Such talk has to be refused, not engaged. One example. The New…
Alistair on We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) ResearchAugust 19, 2026
Google Scholar's result counts are extremely broad estimates and highly opaque. It's not a reliable or reproducible method assessing topical…
A 7 Eleven Customer Got the Perfect Receipt and Saved It Forever He Spent $7.11 at 7-Eleven at Exactly 7:11 PM on 7/11. What He Did With the Receipt Makes It Even Better on $7.11 at 7:11 PM on 7/11 at 7/11: What Are The Chances?August 19, 2026
[…] that annotates viral images posted the story on July 23, 2026. It described the customer paying $7.11 at 7-Eleven…
McChuck on We Passed Peak “Climate Change” (um) ResearchAugust 18, 2026
The number of new climate change papers is proportional to USAID funding and inversely proportional to the number of new…