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William M. Briggs

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Posted inClass Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part XI

Review! We left off with comparing the standard, out-of-the-box linear regression with our multinomial predictive observable model. The great weaknesses of the regression were probability leakage (giving positive probability to…
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Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part X

Review! Last time we created four models of CGPA. Which is correct? They all are. Why? I should ask as a homework question, but I'll remind us here. Since all…
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Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IX
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Probability-Statistics Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part IX

Review! Last time we successfully computed our model (8):     (8) Pr(CGPA = i | guesses of new measures, grading rules, old obs, model), where i = 0,...,5. The model…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VIII
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VIII

Review! We're continuing with the CGPA example. The data is on line, and of unknown origin, but good enough to use as an example. We will build a correlational model,…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VII

Review! This is our last week of theory. Next week the practical side begins in earnest. However much fun that will be, and it will be a jolly time, this…
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Cliodynamics And The Lack Of A Hari Seldon
Posted inClass Statistics

Cliodynamics And The Lack Of A Hari Seldon

There will be no Hari Seldon. But there will be prophets. If there is no Seldon, there will be no psychohistory, the fictional astonishingly accurate mathematical science predicting gross human…
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Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI
Posted inClass Statistics

Free Data Science Class: Predictive Case Study 1, Part VI

Review! This class is neither frequentist nor Bayesian nor machine learning in theory. It is pure probability, and unlike any other class available. And for the right price! Last time…
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What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?
Posted inClass Statistics

What Is The Probability Of COVFEFE?

From a tweet from Taleb, who informs us the following question is part of the Indian Statistical Institute examination. (5) Mr.Trump decides to post a random message on Facebook and…
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  1. NLR on Against Numerology: Some Basic CalculationsOctober 19, 2026

    The mathematician Richard Guy wrote a paper "The strong law of small numbers", where he said, facetiously, but also serirously:…

  2. aGrimm on Book UpdateOctober 16, 2026

    I'm looking forward to the book; warts and all the first was enlightening and fun to read.

  3. John Pate on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    I'm a big fan of LaTeX. I wrote a class package that made it into one or more of the…

  4. Ursula on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    i have your first edition which I read, pencil in hand foor the typos. Loved it anyway! Will be buying…

  5. Brian (buaoren) on Book UpdateOctober 14, 2026

    Hello again, friend Briggs How colloquial is your French? Please allow me to be te first to wish you; Merde!

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