Philosophy – Page 129 – William M. Briggs

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Culture Philosophy

Studies Show Mike McQueary Did What You Would Have Done

A lot of wrist-twisting and hand-wringing over Mike McQueary's actions after he came across Penn State Coach Jerry Sandusky raping a 10-year-old boy in the showers. McQueary, who Mark Steyn…

Culture Philosophy

The Selfish Genes Of Dennett’s Atheists

If you're not busy this December 2nd and 3rd, and happen to be in the Buffalo area, you might drop in on the Center for Inquiry's symposium "Daniel Dennett and…

Philosophy Statistics

Inuitionist Math & Probability: Riemann Hypothesis Example

The principium tertii exclusi, the principle or law of the excluded middle, what is that? If there is a proposition B then it is either the case that B is…

hudbwu on Academics Debate Which Term Best Describes Those Who Love (in that way) Their PillowsNovember 16, 2025
I like how it's implied nuking from orbit is a lesser strike than defunding. :)
Williis Eschenbach on Why Study Probability?November 16, 2025
John, you say: "Try a different Aunt Sally, Eschenbach: an actual physical dice is an object that can be examined…
John Pate on The Dysgenics Of IVFNovember 15, 2025
The technocrats are unconcerned: they claim they can fix it all via gene editing, or maybe embryo selection, but anyway…
John Pate on Why Study Probability?November 15, 2025
Try a different Aunt Sally, Eschenbach: an actual physical dice is an object that can be examined and measured to…
Uncle Mike on Why Study Probability?November 14, 2025
The answer is a question: what did you expect the counts to be? On what premises did you base your…