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William M. Briggs

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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Do You Believe In Global Warming Because Of The Seriousness Of The Charges?

An activist tells you, "Based on my theory of rampant, out-of-control global warming, otters, driven mad by the heat, will take to the streets and destroy mankind, just like apes…
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Posted inPhilosophy SAMT

Summary Against Modern Thought: Potency, Actuality, & Movement

See the first post in this series for an explanation and guide of our tour of Summa Contra Gentiles. Previous post. Last time we only proved one premise, that some…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy

From Paganism To Christianity To Deism To Malleism

Pagans---the word is not an insult---believed that God was immanent. If you've seen Star Wars, you have it. "The Force" was God, and The Force was everything. To quote that…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probabilities Aren’t Decisions

The title says it all. But its presence implies, and it is true, that people often mistake the two. If you decide to bet fifty bucks the USA beats Germany,…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Biggest Error In Regression

I know, I know: we're sick to death of regression, but we have to cover the biggest error, which is how the Deadly Sin of Reification happens. You have a…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Free Will The Result Of ‘Background Noise’?

Once again the lack of metaphysical training has led some scientists to say an incredibly silly thing. That free will "could be the result of 'background noise' in the brain."…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Applicability Of Experiments

Every probability problem has the form Pr(Q|E), where Q is the proposition of interest and E the evidence, premises, or "data" probative (or not) of E. Change the evidence, change…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Deadly Sin Of Reification! Day Three

Zeno Phobia Counting day. How many ways can you skin a cat if the number of sharp versus dull knives is this and such. Simple stuff, easy to get the…
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  1. Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025

    What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…

  2. Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025

    I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…

  3. shawn marshall on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 7, 2025

    Let us not discredit the demonic.

  4. Cary Cotterman on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 7, 2025

    Blair: "...lightning came inside and chased her to a back bedroom." Anyone who can outrun lightning, even if it's only…

  5. McChuck on Miracle Or Coincidence? What Are The Chances?May 7, 2025

    I knew a fellow win the Army who had been struck by lightning three times. Whenever he heard thunder, he…

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