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Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus
Posted inStatistics

Taleb Chastises Calm Journalist, Advises Precautionary Panic To Coronavirus

Background Some blue check journalist named Ferris Jabr, in a raw display of sobriety for a member of the Indigo Cheka, said None of this is to belittle what is…
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On Cause In Probability Models
Posted inStatistics

On Cause In Probability Models

Note This post originally ran 11 June 2019 under the title "When Cause Is Not A Cause -- Another Anti-P-Value Argument". The post itself is extracted and modified from this…
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New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Parameter-Centric Analysis Grossly Exaggerates Certainty

By moi as well. Paper link. Abstract: The reason probability models are used is to characterize uncertainty in observables. Typically, certainty in the parameters of fitted models based on their…
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That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence
Posted inStatistics

That Cofnas Paper On Research On Group Differences In Intelligence

Find by general acclaim the smartest man in the world. Call this man "Group A". Call everybody else "Group B". There will necessarily be a group difference in mean intelligence,…
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Remarks On Pew’s Polarized Partisan Poll
Posted inStatistics

Remarks On Pew’s Polarized Partisan Poll

Pew has a large survey out with the title "In a Politically Polarized Era, Sharp Divides in Both Partisan Coalitions: Partisanship remains biggest factor in public's political values." I have…
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New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!
Posted inStatistics

New Paper: Don’t Test, Decide — Updated: Now With Paper Link!

Paper link. By moi. Abstract: There is no reason to use traditional hypothesis testing. If one's goal is to assess past performance of a model, then a simple measure or…
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Reader Question On Sea Level Data Precision — Help Requested
Posted inStatistics

Reader Question On Sea Level Data Precision — Help Requested

From reader Kip Hansen comes a long but good (and slightly edited) question on sea level data. I can only answer part of it, because I have no expertise in…
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The Political Corruption Of Science — Grade Manipulation In STEM Edition
Posted inStatistics

The Political Corruption Of Science — Grade Manipulation In STEM Edition

Here are two recent examples, of many, with many more to come, of the pozzing of science by grade deflation. Meaning the lowering of standards as measured by grades. LADIES…
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  1. Chaeremon on Deniers Refusing To Die From Climate Change Heat WavesAugust 25, 2025

    all poisoned! I asked Grok (the one behind expensive paywall, 2xcheap per 4 hours) about discussing ideas for accentuating modularity…

  2. Edward on Lying Increases Trust In Science, Says AcademicAugust 24, 2025

    What really concerns me most is the pedantic feeling that “solutions” to problems aren’t what we mean. The way I…

  3. Rudolph Harrier on Class 62: Die P-value, Die! Die! Die!August 23, 2025

    P-values enable a lot of shenanigans, and they are dangerous because most of their "honest" users trust them too much…

  4. John Pate on Class 62: Die P-value, Die! Die! Die!August 22, 2025

    ...and another thing: in Fisher's works first understanding the distribution of what you're measuring in population you are sampling from…

  5. JH on Class 62: Die P-value, Die! Die! Die!August 22, 2025

    Since your definition of p-values is not entirely correct, FYI - understanding p-values and different meanings of p-value

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