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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

Computers Can Find Future Criminals? Why, Computers Can Do Anything!

There is a belief---a persistent and beguiling, yet false belief---that a formula exists that can predict anything. This formula will differ, it is thought, by the thing predicted, and it…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Uncertainty (#1 New Release in Statistics) Book Page — Here Are The Details. Update!

This isn't the book page. This is. Or you can buy it here. The page is permanently located at the menu bar at the top of the page, at the…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Stream: Homicide Rates, Black vs. White, Sex, Guns & Government

Today's post is at The Stream: The Murder Rate has Plunged Since 1990...But Big Gov Knows How to Turn That Around. Go there for the narration and data explanation. Here's…
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Posted inStatistics

Publishing & Equality Are Killing Science

Equality kills everything it touches, eventually. So much is well known. It is also realized by regular readers that requiring academics to publish or perish causes them to perish intellectually.…
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Posted inBook review Statistics

Uncertainty: Foreword by Steven Goldberg

Steve Goldberg was president of the sociology department at City College of New York (CCNY) from 1988 until his retirement (back when they knew how to do sociology). He is…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: Government Lab Has Been Faking Data for Years

Today's post (more a news report) is at The Stream: Government Lab Has Been Faking Data for Years. A person or persons at the same US Geological Survey Lab in…
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Posted inStatistics

Shocking New Research: Hunger Motivates Eating

Ladies and gentlemen, the opening line of the peer-reviewed paper "Hunger promotes acquisition of nonfood objects" appearing in the (once) venerable organ Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, by…
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Posted inBook review Philosophy Statistics

The Great Day Is Here! Uncertainty Meets The World

The Great Day---the Day yearned for by all humanity, or at least weakly anticipated by you, Dear Reader---has arrived! Let the trumpet sound and celebration begin! The release of Uncertainty:…
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  1. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Is there evidence that people believe probabilities, parameters, or mathematical objects exist physically in nature? The fact that mathematicians use…

  3. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Relevance is made more difficult when Y is allowed to vary, but the underlying idea is the same. Probability offers…

  4. Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025

    What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…

  5. Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025

    I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…

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