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Posted inStatistics

Trenberth Is Wrong About Global Warming: The PDO Is An Effect, Not A Cause

Kevin "Travesty" Trenberth had a peer-reviewed article in Science entitled, "Has there been a hiatus? Internal climate variability masks climate-warming trends." First, the word "hiatus" is wrong. Using it assumes…
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Posted inStatistics

Is Young Fatherhood Causally Related To Midlife Mortality? Wee P-values Say Yes!

The title of today's post is culled from the peer-reviewed paper "Is young fatherhood causally related to midlife mortality? A sibling fixed-effect study in Finland" by Elina Einiö and two…
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Posted inFun Statistics

Briggs Is Available To Speak. Update

You've seen the videos...You've read the papers...You know the blog...Now hire the man! For a limited time only---All men are mortal, Briggs is a man, etc.---W. M. Briggs is available…
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Posted inStatistics

Having A Kid Worse Than Divorce Or Death? Wee P-values Say Yes

When I first ascend to Emperor, after throwing into the dungeon any within earshot who cannot speak a full sentence without using 'like', my first act will be to create…
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Posted inStatistics

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…
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Posted inStatistics

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbf_TXqEY-Y Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here's a direct link. Here's the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…
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Posted inStatistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…
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  1. Briggs on In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No ValueSeptember 23, 2025

    Mark, Tomorrow. Thanks.

  2. Brian (bulaoren) on The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2September 23, 2025

    Has Occam's razor been banned yet?

  3. NLR on In Which I Shockingly Agree With Sabine That Most Science Is Of Little Or No ValueSeptember 23, 2025

    Such science is a genuine problem, but it's far down the list of the problems plaguing humanity right now. Generally,…

  4. Zundfolge on The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2September 23, 2025

    I propose a Unified Field Theory of Conspiracy Theories. Most of them are false, and the false ones used to…

  5. Cary Cotterman on The Charlie Kirk Killing Theories: The (Non)-Mathematics Of Conspiracy Theories 2September 23, 2025

    Ever since L. H. Oswald, every assassination has had endless alternate theories, always involving another shooter, coverups, the CIA or…

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