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William M. Briggs

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Posted inStatistics

The Third Way Of Probability & Statistics: Beyond Testing and Estimation To Importance, Relevance, and Skill. New Paper

New paper up at Arxiv, which is a sort of précis to some key chapters in my book most relevant to probability and statistical modeling. Abstract: There is a third…
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Posted inStatistics

Video: The Crisis Of Evidence, Or, Why Probability & Statistics Cannot Discover Cause

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbf_TXqEY-Y Thanks to Jeremy Snavely at DDP for putting up the talks. Here's a direct link. Here's the paper. Q & A starts around 52:30 minutes. Since some readers were…
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Posted inStatistics

Stream: What’s True and What’s False in Obama’s Latest Global Warming Claims

Today's post is at The Stream: What's True and What's False in Obama's Latest Global Warming Claims. There is so much hyperbolic language surrounding the topic of global warming that…
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Posted inStatistics

Keeping It Simple: The Value Of An Irreducibly Simple Climate Model. New Paper

The rebuttal to the criticism of our original peer-reviewed climate model paper "Why models run hot" has been published in Science Bulletin. It is also peer-reviewed, and therefore it must…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

Which Statistics Grad School If You’re Sick Of Hocus-Pocus P-values?

I received this query from a reader and thought it important enough for all of us to answer. I was hoping you could provide some advice for an aspiring statistician.…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

Probability & Statistics Cannot Prove Cause

Correlation I was at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness conference in Ontario (LA) California and gave my paper The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause, which…
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Posted inCulture Philosophy Statistics

Writer Says Discovery Of Extraterrestrial Life Would Be Bad News For God. God Says Nope

The danger of writing about that in which you are ignorant is that you're bound to look foolish. Let's see an example. Jeff Schweitzer, who bills himself as a scientist…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause. New Paper

Cancer of the albondigas is horrifyingly under-diagnosed. See your doctor today and ask him if Profitizol is right for you. Today's post, in a way, is at Arxiv: The Crisis…
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  1. Johnno on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Briggs, have you tried ONE PIECE ?

  2. Eyrie on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Yep, finding the same thing. Unfortunately many of the good authors have died. We lost Michael F Flynn a couple…

  3. BDavi52 on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Definitely not you. Writing has changed, or if not writing, publishing has changed. It seems obvious that written works are…

  4. John M on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    I'm with you Briggs. I'm a Jack London, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, Louis L'Amour reader. The nice thing is my…

  5. Rudolph Harrier on On Not ReadingMarch 11, 2026

    Even most mass market paperbacks aren't really the "pocket paperbacks" of old. Either because they are too large or (more…

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