Statistics – Page 181 – William M. Briggs

The Global Warming Non-Expert Expert

Reporteritis is the disease, or rather psychiatric condition, common among journalists, brought on by exposure to important people and events. The exposure causes the journalist to feel that he too…

Statistics

Ask A Scientific Ethicist: Baby Making, Auto Mishap, ISIS Attacks

This was supposed to run this morning. No idea why it didn't. This week, three letters from concerned readers. Too many babies Dear Scientific Ethicist, Hopefully this subject matter isn't…

Statistics

It Makes No Sense To Say You’re More Likely To Die Of Bee Sting Than Shark Bite

The National Journal says: "The odds of being killed by a shark are about 1 in 3.7 million. The odds of being killed by a sting from a bee, wasp,…

Statistics

Decline Of Participation In Religious Rituals With Improved Sanitation

Answer me this. Earl at the end of the bar, on his sixth or seventh, tells listeners just what's wrong with America's science policy. His words receive knowing nods from…

Philosophy Statistics

Comments On Dawid’s Prequential Probability

Phil Dawid is a brilliant mathematical statistician who introduced (in 1984) the theory of prequential probability1 to describe a new-ish way of doing statistics. We ought to understand this theory.…

Philosophy Statistics

Explanation Vs Prediction

Introduction There isn't as much space between explanation and prediction as you'd think; both are had from the same elements of the problem at hand. Here's how it all works.…

Statistics

Missing Global Warming Close To A Solution?

I can't tell you where I obtained a photocopy of the note below. I can tell you that I am in Washington DC (at the lovely and recommended Morrison Clark…

Statistics

There Is No Difference Between A Forecast, A Scenario, or A Projection

This is a tad incoherent, but the gist is here. I had the opportunity of submitting an abstract to the AGU fall meeting, and had only a couple of hours…

Maypo on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 29, 2025
Wow, (re)reading a TOFian essay makes it so blasted plain how much I miss the man. May he rest in…
hudbwu on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 29, 2025
> If I were God, and loved rational creatures, I would make myriad rational species; He should come back in…
NLR on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 29, 2025
What gets me about these kind of arguments is that they presuppose too much. People will have extensive debates about…
Briggs on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 29, 2025
Cary, You have read incompletely. God is a necessary being, else there could be no world. That is the classical…
Cary Cotterman on The If I Were God Fallacy & EvolutionJuly 29, 2025
"I, a man of 10,000, 5,000, or 2,000 years ago, cannot see how the world functions, therefore I posit (invent)…