Statistics – Page 193 – William M. Briggs

The Problem Of Grue Isn’t; Or, A Gruesome Non-Paradox About Induction

Skepticism about induction happens only among academic philosophers, and only in print. Tell an induction skeptic to take a long walk off a short dock or hint that his health…

Statistics

Please Don’t Smooth Your (Social Media) Data!

Don't Don't smooth your data and then use that smoothed data as input to other analysis. You will fool yourself. You will make over-confident decisions. It is the wrong thing…

Culture Statistics

Humanae Vitae & The Sexual Revolution: Theories And Predictions

This corrected post originally ran 14 May 2014. But given rumblings in the Church, that it is Lent, and the importance of the message to all of us, it is…

Statistics

Global Warming’s Shark Jumping Moment

Travel day today, so something light and airy---and incomplete. President Obama, presumably sacrificing a tee time, went to keyboard and typed these words: This is a big moment in the…

Philosophy Statistics

Truth, Knowledge, Belief, & Gettier Problems

Proof Isn't All That The first section can be skipped for those who know what necessary versus conditional truth is. I recall an anecdote about John von Neumann which had…

Statistics

Don’t Say “Natural Variability”

Word that the climate of doom we were promised (repeatedly) has not obtained has begun leaking out. Climatologists have known this for quite some time, but now even environmental activists…

Statistics

A Common, Unfortunate, Avoidable, Devastating Error In Statistics

It's a doozy, this error of ours. So ubiquitous is it that it's hardly noticeable. Yet it is sinking us into scientism and wild overconfidence. Every time it appears, both…

Culture Statistics

The Coming Cancer Panic

Maybe it won't be cancer. Maybe it will be irumodic syndrome or Clarke's disease. Or maybe it will be something else. But probably it will be cancer. If I had…

Johnno on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I'm panicking about the people who believe enthusiastically in the capabilities of the AI that the other people are panicking…
Rudolph Harrier on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
I've started thinking of this as the "juice loosener problem" (after the Simpsons bit where Dr. Nick hawks an orange…
Cary D Cotterman on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
After spending years in school doing my own writing, then decades in my profession busting my ass to write somewhere…
Uncle Mike on The Great Smoothing: Another Reason Not To Fear (or trust) AIMarch 10, 2026
AI isn't the entity smoothing the data. The alleged decline in Arctic sea ice was a key assertion in Algore's…
JH on A Synchronicity Or Coincidence? What Is Behind Curious Events?March 10, 2026
The definition of cause can vary, and each incident may have its causes or contributing factors. I see coincidences as…