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William M. Briggs

Statistician to the Stars!

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Posted inStatistics

Question About Non-Normal Distributions

Thanks to everybody who sent in links, story tips, and suggestions. Because of my recent travel and pressures of work, I'm (again) way behind in answering these. I do appreciate…
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Posted inCulture Statistics

More Proof Music Is Growing Worse

New proof (which wasn't really need) that popular music is, as has long been claimed, been growing worse has arrived thanks to the diligent work of Joan Serrà and his…
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Posted inStatistics

Müller lite: Why Every Scientist Needs a Classical Training—Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

His Lordship sent this around to all the usual suspects asking that it be given a wide audience. I'm traveling today. About 18 months ago, as soon as I heard…
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Posted inStatistics

Richard Muller’s Political Move—BEST is Best? Sophisticated Statistics!

Our Berkeley Earth approach used sophisticated statistical methods developed largely by our lead scientist, Robert Rohde, which allowed us to determine earth land temperature much further back in time. Ah,…
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Posted inStatistics

Doctors For Disaster Preparedness Talk

Here's the PDF of my talk DDP 30th Annual Meeting. "Statistical Follies and Epidemiology." They picked the title. Have fun!
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

True Value Of A Parameter

Jelle de Jong writes in to ask: Working as a quant analyst in finance I recently got interested in the Briggsian/Jaynesian/Bayesian interpretation of probability but am still struggling a bit…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part II

McKibben's Folly Suppose it is true that we have E = "A six-sided object, just one side of which is labeled 6, and when tossed only one side will show."…
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Posted inPhilosophy Statistics

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…
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  1. Briggs on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    JH, My IQ is simplicity itself to estimate. I have no IQ. Pick up any stats books and look under…

  2. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Is there evidence that people believe probabilities, parameters, or mathematical objects exist physically in nature? The fact that mathematicians use…

  3. JH on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 9, 2025

    Relevance is made more difficult when Y is allowed to vary, but the underlying idea is the same. Probability offers…

  4. Tim on Class 49: Relevance & Importance Of Evidence In ModelsMay 8, 2025

    What are you playing at, Briggs? Some high-falutin' model equation junk that'll get twisted by politicians in the end anyway?…

  5. Milton Hathaway on AI Cannot Hallucinate Nor LieMay 8, 2025

    I have been making heavy use of the more well-known LLMs lately. I use them almost exclusively as "regurgitation engines",…

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