(This essay will form, when re-written more intelligently, part of Chapter 15, the final Chapter, of my book. Which is coming….soon? The material below is not easy nor brief, folks. But it […]
Book coming…
I’ve been taking the past few days and building an Index for the my “101” book. It is painstaking, meticulous…well, excruciatingly dull work. But it’s nearly done. This is slowing me down […]
The limits of statistics: black swans and randomness
The author of Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has penned the essay THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS over at Edge.org (which I […]
Much too certain: miscellaneous Sunday topics
Today, a topic that I mean to expand—greatly—in the coming weeks. That theme, as you might has guessed, is too many people are too certain about too many things. Nothing more than […]
The limits of acceptable criminal behavior to combat global warming
I want to ask a favor of my regular readers and of those who occasionally come here to seek an alternate view. You can help me spread the word. Yesterday, we discussed […]
Demonstration of how smoothing causes inflated certainty (and egos?)
I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]
Still a few days left to guess who will win Presidential race
If you haven’t already, please guess who will win the 2008 Presidential race. If you have voted, please do not do so again. We’ve been running the poll for a couple of […]
Do not smooth times series, you hockey puck!
21 October 2011: Welcome Register fans! Comments on this site are always close after 8 days to control spam. To see more about BEST, read this post. The advice which forms the […]
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