Statistics – Page 253 – William M. Briggs

What Probably Isn’t: Heat Waves and Nine Feet Tall Men: Part I

Probability is screwy, and we statisticians do a horrible, rotten job of teaching it. The first thing students learn in normal statistics classes is about "measures of central tendency" or…

Statistics

Men Nine Feet Tall And Bayes Theorem

The OFloinn put up a most readable and recommended essay When is Weather Really "Climate"? and in one of the comments a reader named Gyan in part said: Many economists…

Culture Statistics

The Decline And Increase Of Mainstream Religions In The USA: With Pictures!

The Episcopals, like many other old guard protesting religions, are in trouble. Jay Akasie tells us that at this year's annual conclave, the Episcopalian leadership had their most serious discussions…

Philosophy Statistics

Certainty & Uncertainty: Logical Probability & Statistics

Since we have spent the weekend with these matters, I thought it appropriate to include the first part of the Introduction to the new book I've been working on. It…

Philosophy Statistics

More On The 1 in 1.6 Million Heat Wave Chance

Yesterday we looked at NCDC's claim that the 13-month stretch of "above-normal" temperatures had only a 1 in 1.6 million chance of occurring. Let's today clarify the criticism. The NCDC…

Philosophy Statistics

Chance Of Heat Wave Only 1 in 1.6 Million? Or, Probability Gone Wrong

My dad took a swing with his nine-iron and the wiffle simulacrum of a golf ball took flight, arched upwards, spun left and, without bouncing, landed atop my favorite blade…

Fun Statistics

How Good Are You At Making Sports Predictions?

I'm traveling today so I thought I'd remind us of ShortBurst sports, Edgehogs as was. Make picks in all major sports, even the God-help-us Olympics, and track your prognosticatory prowess.…

Statistics

Observational Bayes > Parametric Bayes > Hypothesis Testing < Looking

This is a completion of the post I started two weeks ago which shows that "predictive" or "observational" Bayes is better than classical, parametric Bayes, which is far superior to…

JRob on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
re: Shawn Marshall Just yesterday my email folder contained a conservative political call to oppose the upcoming abortion amendment to…
C-Marie on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
Have they rallied around the mother who killed her three children because she killed her three children, , or have…
Brian (bulaoren) on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
As we read today's post on..."motherhood", a Massachusetts jury is determining the fate of a mother who killed her 3…
Tars Tarkas on Fertility Fears Overblown: Tiny Shift in Childless Rate Saves The SpeciesAugust 27, 2026
IMHO, they ignore the change causes change thing. Nothing ever changes in a vacuum. If we weren't importing millions of…
jgh on Bad Black Health Blamed On SlaveryAugust 27, 2026
That x-axis could just as well be labelled "distance from equator" or "length of winter nights".