Statistics – Page 259 – William M. Briggs

Geo-engineering The Climate: Durban Global Warming Conference

A group of scientists, funded generously by Big Green, which includes the Environmental Defense Fund, have released a report to coincide with the efforts of the Durban Global Warming Conference,…

Fun Statistics

Are Experts Better At Predicting Sports Than Ordinary Fans?

Today's post is over at the new and, yes, improved Edgehogs.com. Our launch was a couple of months ago. Since that time we've got a good chunk of games and…

Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part VI Climate Model Focus

This is a technical addendum to the main series. I would have skipped this, but Climategate 2.0 revealed many misapprehensions of verification statistics that I want to clear up, particularly…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part V

We have in our hands (via the predictive posterior) the probabilities that Susy's GPA is less than any number between 0 and 4, given that we accept the normal model…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part IV

In Part I we had the simplest kind of model. We complicated it in Part II, built more structure in Part III, and today finally come to the most used…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part III

We have had two cases so far: arbitrary models for counterfactual Martians (Part I) and a deduced model for an urn holding dichotomous objects (Part II). The logic was identical…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part II

The models in Part I might not have "felt right" to you. But if that is so it is because your diet of probability examples has been too narrowly constricted.…

Philosophy Statistics

What Is A True Model? What Makes A Good One?: Part I

The rules of logic are simple. Use whatever evidence you have, and no other, to figure the probability of a conclusion. These rules are all we need to understand what…

Cookie on What A WinterJanuary 23, 2026
Energy bills will be up with this cold. I wonder what inflation will look like when winter is done? At…
Hagfish Bagpipe on What A WinterJanuary 22, 2026
Briggs, that sounds just dandy. You have important and challenging work to do. Work that rewards creative solutions and physical…
Briggs on What A WinterJanuary 21, 2026
McChuck, That lieutenant must be at least a congressman by now.
McChuck on What A WinterJanuary 21, 2026
I remember the multiple blizzards of the 1970's. I had to be outside on guard patrol all night in -40…
Cary D Cotterman on What A WinterJanuary 20, 2026
There's always something busting on a house or a car, and mean weather doesn't help. The joy of home and…