A reader recently disputed my condensation of the tenets of Bayesian subjective probability. (I promised a thread on which we could discuss the matter more fully, so here it is.) Here is […]

From Jerry Pournelle (What? You haven’t read Lucifer’s Hammer yet?) on how just about everybody making bets in the financial markets were wrong. This “everybody” includes very highly educated, extraordinarily well paid, […]

I’ve been taking the past few days and building an Index for the my “101” book. It is painstaking, meticulous…well, excruciatingly dull work. But it’s nearly done. This is slowing me down […]

Today, a topic that I mean to expand—greatly—in the coming weeks. That theme, as you might has guessed, is too many people are too certain about too many things. Nothing more than […]

I want to ask a favor of my regular readers and of those who occasionally come here to seek an alternate view. You can help me spread the word. Yesterday, we discussed […]

I’ve had a number of requests to show how smoothing inflates certainty, so I’ve created a couple of easy simulations that you can try in the privacy of your own home. The […]